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by Jim Feist
It's time to kick off a new football season.
College football begins Thursday, August 28th and here's a look at the
top teams, starting with my top 21-40.
40. Miami: The Canes
started 7-0 last year, then fell apart, finishing 2-4 SU, on a 1-7 ATS
run. Al Golden has 5 starters back on offense, 7 on D. Senior QB Ryan
Williams (369 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT) has played in nine games since
transferring and sophomore Gray Crow is in the mix. Junior RB Duke
Johnson (920 yds, 6.3 ypc) is back along with sophomore WR Stacey Coley
(591 yds) on a unit that struck for 33.8 points, 265 yds passing and 160
rushing. The defense improved to 26.8 ppg allowed and has its top
players back. Big tests come early in September opening at Louisville
and at Nebraska (Sept. 20).
39. Northwestern: A bounce back
attack for the Wildcats? Coach Pat Fitzgerald's team was supposed to be
good last year but flopped, missing a bowl. 8 starters return on
offense, 7 on D. Senior QB Trevor Siemian (11 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,149 yds)
returns and 5th year senior RB Venric Mark is back from a left ankle
surgery (in 2012 he ran for 1,366 yards, 6 yards per carry).
5
offensive line starters are back. The defense returns it best players
and should be better than the 27 ppg they allowed. There is motivation
after a 1-7 SU/ATS finish. They should start 3-0 with an easy schedule
and carry an 8-2 run under the total run into the new campaign.
38.
TCU: The Frogs are off a 4-8 SU/ATS campaign but Gary Patterson's squad
might be in for a bounce back campaign anchored by a strong defense.
They were a top 25 defense nationally in yards allowed and return 8
starters. The front 6 returns largely intact, which doesn't include
Devonte Fields. A 2012 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year as a true
freshman, Fields played in just three games last fall because of injury.
The offense gets an overhaul with Doug Meacham aboard, the offensive
coordinator at pass-happy Houston. They carry a 36-7 SU/24-19 ATS run
at home into the new season.
37. East Carolina: Head Coach
Ruffin McNeill is off a bowl win and primed for a better season. This
offense returns senior QB Shane Carden (33 TDs, 10 INTs, 4,139 yards) on
an attack that was 11th in the nation in passing (328 yds pg) along
with 40.2 points. The WR corps is loaded with senior Justin Hardy (1,284
yds) and soph Isaiah Jones (604). They won at North Carolina 55-31 as
+12 dog! The defense returns only 4 starters and allowed 24.8 ppg. They
were 7-5 over the total and might be even more prevalent over this fall.
36. Oregon State: The Beavers are tough to defend with their
quick-strike passing attack and return senior QB Sean Mannion (37 TDs,
15 INTs, 4,662 yds, 66.3%). This offense struck for 34.8 points per game
and ranked third in the nation with 372.6 yds passing. The offense will
be potent with junior WR Richard Mullaney (788 yds), soph WR Malik
Gilmore and junior TE Caleb Smith (343 yds). The D-line is rebuilding
but the LBs are strong with seniors D.J. Alexander and Jabral Johnson.
Oregon State plays 3 of its first 5 away, including at Hawaii (Sept. 6)
and is on a 15-9 run over the total.
35. Texas Tech: Second-year
coach Kliff Kingsbury did a phenomenal job with the offense, ranked
second in the nation in passing with 392.8 yards and 35.8 points per
game. 8 starters are back on offense, 5 on defense, anchored by 6-4 soph
QB Davis Webb (20 TDs, 9 INTs). The defense (30.5 ppg) was terrible,
responsible for their 1-5 SU/ATS run after a 7-0 start. They allowed 38,
52, 49, 63, 41 the last five regular season games, 4-1 over the total.
Defense isn't the only area to improve: Tech averaged 8 penalties for 75
yards.
34. Penn State: Bill O'Brien departed for the NFL, so
new coach James Franklin (Vandy coach 2011-13) takes over. He also was
OC at Maryland and K-State. He inherits an offense that struck for 28.7
points and 259 yards passing and returns the Big 10 Freshman of the Year
QB Christian Hackenberg (20 TDs, 10 INTs). Senior RB Zach Zwinak (989
yds) provides balance but the star QB needs new targets.
Defensive
coordinator Bob Shoop arrives from Vanderbilt and has 8 starters back,
including a talented defensive line led by DE senior C.J. Olaniyan.
They should start 5-0 despite playing the opener in Ireland. Penn State
is on a 14-6 run over the total.
33. Washington: New coach
Chris Peterson (92-12 at Boise) steps in. The Huskies return all five
O-line starters, four seniors. Mobile sophomore QB Cyler Miles (4 TDs, 2
INTs) has very strong weapons to throw to in junior WR Jaydon Mickens
(688 yds), speedy sophomore John Ross, while senior WR Kasen Williams
(421 yds) is coming back from a serious leg injury.
The defense
(22.8 ppg) is terrific up front, led by senior end Hau'oli Kikaha (13
sacks) and senior T Danny Shelton. They open at Hawaii (Aug. 30), then
play 4 straight home games, including a showdown with Stanford (9/27).
Washington is on a 15-9 ATS run.
32. Nebraska: Bo Pelini has 5
starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Soph QB Tommy Armstrong (9 TDs, 8
INTs) started eight games but wasn't impressive. The ground game led
the way with 215.7 yards rushing (19th in the nation) and will be strong
behind senior RB Ameer Abdullah (1,137 and 1,690 yds last two years).
The Cornhuskers were one of the nation's top pass rushing defenses and
this unit looks strong up front. They could be 5-0 before playing at
Michigan State Oct. 4. Nebraska is 19-10 SU/17-12 ATS on the road under
Pelini.
31. Cincinnati: Tommy Tuberville arrived from Texas
Tech and went 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS in 2013. 7 starters are back on both sides
of the ball. Notre Dame transfer 6-4 soph QB Gunner Kiel steps in to a
team that averaged 32 points and 303.6 yards passing (18th). The
Bearcats have a deep receiving corps. Tuberville is hoping for more long
passes out of their spread offense. The defense allowed just 21 ppg
(14th) but lost its top players on the line. The Bearcats did a lot of
things well in 2013, but special teams were not one of them, ranking
121st in net punting. They hope to survive a September 27th date at Ohio
State.
30. Texas A&M: Johnny Football is gone, so now
what? The good news is Kevin Sumlin has back-to-back top-10 recruiting
classes. Senior QB Matt Joeckel, soph QB Kenny Hill and true freshman
Kyle Allen are fighting for the job. This offense averaged 44.2 points
and 353.3 yds passing (7th) but will take a step back.
6 starters
are back on offense, 9 on defense. 4 starters return to the O-line,
anchored by talented senior guard Jarvis Harrison, plus junior RB 5-8
Trey Williams (407 yds, 7 ypc) and senior WR Malcome Kennedy (658). The
defense is experienced, but allowed 32.2 ppg and had no pass rush (21
sacks). Forget about running the table with road games at South Carolina
(Aug 28), at Bama (Oct. 18) and at Auburn (Nov. 8). A&M is on a 9-4
run over the total.
29. Virginia Tech: Would you believe Frank
Beamer's team has lost 11 games the last two years? The heat is on for
2014. Fortunately, 8 starters are back on offense, 5 on D. Beamer has to
settle on a quarterback with senior Mark Leal and soph Brenden Motley.
Leal was unimpressive in the 42-12 Sun Bowl loss to UCLA, but Motely had
a fine spring and junior Michael Brewer (Texas Tech transfer) is
aboard.
5 offensive linemen are back and this defense was 11th in
the nation in points allowed (19.3) for Bud Foster. The D-line is loaded
behind Luther Maddy (6.5 sacks) and Corey Marshall, who missed last
year with an injury. V-Tech is on a 23-14-2 run under the total and
26-11 SU/20-17-1 ATS on the road.
28. Oklahoma State: Mike
Gundy's no-huddle offense returns junior QB J.W. Walsh (9 TDs, 5 INTs),
who ran for 294 yards, 5.1 ypc. This team averaged 39 points and 276.8
rushing, off a 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS campaign. Senior RB Desmond Roland
(811 yds, 4.6 ypc) is back along with 3 O-linemen.
The defense was
outstanding allowing 21.6 ppg (19th in nation), but the secondary is a
concern. The pass rush may help the young secondary with DT James
Castleman, DE Sam Wren and DE Jimmy Bean capable of getting to the
quarterback. The Cowboys face a tough schedule, featuring road tests at
TCU, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma. Oh yes - and they open in
Arlington, Texas, against...Florida State!
27. North Carolina:
Coach Larry Fedora runs attacking, uptempo offenses and his team returns
7 starters on both sides of the ball. This offense averaged 32.7
points, 148.3 yards rushing and 277.4 yds passing (28th) and returns
junior QB Marquise Williams (15 TDs, 6 INTs). He led the team in rushing
(536 yds, 4.8 ypc). Fedora hired Seth Littrell, Indiana's co-offensive
coordinator the past 2 seasons.
The backfield returns T.J. Logan
(533 yds) and WR 6-4 junior Quinshad Davis (730 yds), plus adds one-time
Notre Dame commit Elijah Hood, a top-10 RB prospect. This is Year 3 for
the unique 4-2-5 defensive scheme employed by coordinator Vic Koenning.
They struggled during a 1-5 start, but UNC carries a 6-1 SU/ATS run
into the new season.
26. Mississippi State: Off a 7-6 season,
the Bulldogs and Dan Mullen are primed for a bigger campaign with 8
starters back on offense, 9 on D. The offense was balanced (27.7 ppg)
and returns junior QB Dak Prescott (10 TDs, 7 INTs), who led the team
with 829 yards rushing. Senior WR Jameon Lewis does it all with 923
yards receiving, 117 yards rushing and was even 3-for-3 passing for 84
yards.
In addition, the Bulldogs signed the state's Gatorade
Player of the Year Aeris Williams, a 4-star RB. The defense looks even
better (23.3 ppg allowed) as nearly everyone is back from a unit that
finished fifth in the SEC in total defense, led by DT P.J. Jones. Road
games at Bama, LSU and Ole Miss are toughest. They are on a 15-9-1 run
under the total.
25. Arizona State: Coach Todd Graham is off a
10-win season and returns 7 starters on offense. Senior QB Taylor Kelly
(28 TDs, 12 INTs, 3,635 yds) ran for 608 yds on an attack that averaged
39.7 ppg (11th), 266 yds passing and 191.4 yds rushing. Throw in junior
RB D.J. Foster (501 yds, 5.4 ypc), who caught 63 passes for 653 yards,
and 6-4 junior WR Jaelen Strong (1,122 yds) and this offense is loaded.
They were not good at protecting the QB, though, and the defense lost
its best players with only 2 returning starters. The secondary is in
rough shape after 3 All-Pac-12 picks moved on to the NFL and they lost
their talented D-line. The Sun Devils are on a 15-11-1 ATS run.
24:
Ole Miss: Expectations are high for Coach Hugh Freeze's team with 6
starters back on offense, 10 on defense. Senior QB Bo Wallace (18 TDs,
10 INTs, 3,346 yards) led an offense that dazzled with 30 points, 283.3
yards passing and 190 rushing per contest. Junior RBs I'Tavius Mathers
(563 yards, 5.9 ypc) and Jaylen Walton (523, 4.6 ypc) mean the top two
rushers return.
Sophomore Laremy Tunsil at left tackle is an NFL
prospect. The defense was very good (23.7 ppg) and could be among the
SEC best. The Nkemdiche brothers (Soph DE Robert + junior LB Denzel) are
back. There is experience at corner with senior Senquez Golson and
junior Mike Hilton, plus All-American safety Cody Prewitt returns. They
open vs. Boise (Thurs, Aug 28) and get Bama at home.
23. Kansas
State: Is there a better coach than Bill Snyder? He continues to amaze,
bringing 6-1 SU, 7-2 ATS runs into the new season. The surge was
capped by a convincing bowl win over Michigan (31-14 as -7). All 5 of
the Wildcats' losses last season came by 10 points or less. QB Jake
Waters (18 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,469 yds) returns to lead an attack that
averaged 33.2 points, 224.7 yds passing and 178 rushing.
6
starters are back on offense, 5 on defense. Senior WR Tyler Lockett
(1,262 yds) is one of the nation's top return men and offensive
weapons. Watch for 6-3 sophomore TE Glenn Gronkowski (the brother of
Rob), who only caught 5 passes but for 194 yds (38.8 ypc). The defense
finished third in the Big 12 in yards and allowed 22.9 ppg. They have
some tough Big 12 road games, plus face Auburn in Week 3 (Thursday,
Sept. 18).
22. Auburn: From a near national champion to being
out of the Top 20? Anything's possible in the rugged SEC. A lot went
right for the Tigers during their amazing season, but don't forget they
got stomped by LSU, should have lost to Georgia, and the defense got
shredded in the second half by Florida State. Coach Gus Malzahn has 7
starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
This ground game was No. 1
in the nation with 328.3 yards per game and will be deadly again with 4
O-line starters back, plus senior QB Nick Marshall (14 TDs, 6 INTs),
who ran for 1,068 yards, 6.2 ypc. The defense, though, finished 12th in
the conference in total yards (420.7) allowed, getting shredded in the
secondary often. Transfer DE DaVonte Lambert is rated the top junior
college end in the country. Road games at angry Georgia and Bama will
be tough.
21. USC: New Coach Steve Sarkisian brings the
up-tempo, no-huddle offense to USC, instead of the old, pro-style,
I-formation. It may take the Trojans a while to adjust, but the weapons
are everywhere. 6 starters return on offense, 8 on defense off of a
10-win team.
Junior QB Cody Kessler (20 TDs, 7 INTs) returns
along with junior WR Nelson Agholor (918 yds. Junior RBs Javorius Allen
(785 yds, 5.8 ypc) and Tre Madden (703 yds, 5.1 ypc) pack a dynamite
one-two backfield punch. New DC Justin Wilcox changes the D to a 3-4
from last year's 5-2. Junior DLs All-American Leonard Williams and
Antwaun Woods return to lead a D-line that could be among the finest in
the country, a unit that ranked 16th allowing 21.2 ppg. USC is on a 10-4
run under the total.
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