NFL Playoffs: Round 2 Turnovers

Grabbing that No. 1 or No. 2 seed is so important in the NFL playoffs. Having a bye week is a big plus. Not only do the top two teams have home field for their first game, they are rested and have had two weeks to put together a game plan while their opponents had to play a Wild Card game.

The AFC has a contrast in styles of the top two teams: The Steelers are about hard hitting defense, the Patriots' strength is on offense. But they both have something in common: positive turnover numbers.
Last season, the Steelers were minus-three in turnover differential. This season, they were plus-14, second best in the NFL. "Turnovers mean everything in winning or losing, especially all the games we played in that are close," said safety Troy Polamalu. "You take one away or you give one more, we could be a 3-13 team rather than a 12-4 team. That's the kind of ball that the Steelers play."

Polamalu tied his career-high with seven, which are most on the team in the past 15 years. The 21 produced were their most since 1996 and tied for fifth most in the league this season. That was a far cry from the 12 interceptions in 2009 (they didn't make the playoffs as defending champs). Conversely, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had his lowest interception rate, throwing just five in 12 games with a total of nine from all their quarterbacks. Their 21 pickoffs nearly mirrored what they did the last time they won a Super Bowl. They had 20 two years ago, returning two for touchdowns as well -- not counting James Harrison's 100-yard return in the Super Bowl -- and Polamalu also had seven that season.

The Steelers are more aggressive in trying to put pressure on the passer and stopping the run. "We've always been here a very smothering style of football team," Polamalu said. "A team like Tampa Bay or the Indianapolis Colts really focus on turnovers, where a team like Baltimore or Green Bay Packers would be a mix of both." Despite all that hard hitting defense, Pittsburgh is just 5-3 SU/ATS at home. They are also on a 5-2 run under the total and 5-3 under the total at home.

The Patriots have been exceptional in creating turnovers, but they are a little more finesse than physical, which partly explains why the Pats rank 27th in yards allowed, 20th in points. On offense, what was so impressive about the Patriots has been their lack of turnovers (an incredible 24 to 1 turnover margin the last nine games) plus their third down efficiency on offense.

New England was second in the league in third-down efficiency, converting 95 of 197 chances, 48.2 percent. That's a little less than the league-leading Saints, who converted 48.8 percent of their 217 third-down chances. New England's 48.2 conversion percentage is well above the mark the team has posted in recent years. The only time under Tom Brady (36 TDs, 4 INTs) and Bill Belichick that the team's third-down efficiency rating has been so close to 50 percent was 2007, when they went 18-1. In the Super Bowl-winning 2003 season, the Patriots converted just 37 percent on third down.

In the NFC, the Falcons have plenty of experience facing the NFC playoff seeds, as they met No. 4 seed Seattle, No. 5 seed New Orleans or No. 6 seed Green Bay during the regular season. The Falcons split their regular-season matchups with the Saints. The Falcons won in New Orleans 27-24 in overtime Sept. 26. New Orleans defeated the Falcons 17-14 at the Georgia Dome on Dec. 27, and some of their players took photos on the team logo at midfield after the game.

The Falcons defeated Green Bay 20-17 on a field goal with nine seconds to play. The Packers outgained the Falcons 418 to 294 yards and had a fumble on the Green Bay 1-yard line that cost them potential points.
"We just have to focus on us as a team," running back Michael Turner said. "What can we do to get better -- because no matter who we play, if we are not on top of our game, we'll probably lose." Turner ran for 114 yards in the first game against the Saints and 48 in the second. He ran for 110 yards against Green Bay and 82 yards against Seattle.

Will teams pick on the Atlanta secondary? In 2009, the Falcons were ranked 28th against the pass and last in third down conversion percentage. The pass defense improved to 22nd and went from 32nd to 22nd - better, but not great. The major improvement was in interceptions where they moved up 12 spots in the league, from 16th to fourth.

The No. 2 seeded Bears also faced their possible opponents -- the Eagles and Seahawks -- during the regular season. A 23-20 loss to Seattle in Week 6 at Soldier Field probably was the worst defeat of the season, while a 31-26 home victory over the Eagles was the highlight. It's no secret how the Bears got here: This D-line is tough, second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, with LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, plus the addition of DE Julius Peppers (8 sacks). Chicago is 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS at home and, despite that great defense, on a 5-1 run over the total. The stakes get higher and higher each week, so don't be surprised if turnovers turn the tide!

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