NFL Playoff Time!
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| Jim Feist - 1/8/2012 8:22 PM |
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by Jim Feist
As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out. Sitting at home this past weekend were the Ravens, Patriots, Packers and 49ers. A year ago the favorites to win the 2012 Super Bowl were the Packers at 5-to-1, the Patriots at 7-to-1, the Steelers at 10-to-1 and the Chargers at 12-to-1. Two got a bye and one didn't even make the playoffs. Last year the teams with byes with the Falcons, Bears, Patriots and Steelers. This season the Ravens were 15-to-1 and the surprising 49ers (there's one in every crowd) 40-to-1. Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan. Since 1990, 32 first and second round seeds have filled 42 Super Bowl slots and the No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 60-20 in their first games in the divisional round. A year ago the rested teams went 2-2 SU/ATS, with the Patriots and Falcons getting upset. Two years ago the rested teams went 3-1 SU/ATS, with blowout wins by three teams. Only the Chargers (17-14 loss to the Jets) fell apart. Three years ago was one of the unusual seasons, with three of the four bye teams losing that first game (Giants, Panthers, Titans). The Steelers, though, not only won and advanced but ended up winning the Super Bowl. The No. 1 seeded team in four of the last seven years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints) wound up in the Super Bowl. In the AFC it's been a different story, as the only recent No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003 and '07 Patriots and the '09 Colts. Last year the Pats lost to the NY Jets. In 2001 and '04 the Steelers were the No. 1 AFC seed and fell short, along with the 14-2 Colts and Chargers, plus the 13-3 Titans in three of the previous four years. Here's a look at the four teams that come into this weekend's playoff games rested with home field. Ravens: (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): As usual, the Ravens got here with defense, ranked No. 3 in the NFL in yards allowed and points, just 16.6 ppg. RB Ray Rice (1,364 yards, 4.7 ypc) carries the offense, as QB Joe Flacco (20 TDs, 12 INTS) is more serviceable than real good. The ground game has been strong with 124.8 yards per game, 10th in the NFL, even more impressive when you realize they had major changes and question marks on the offensive line. The bye week is a big plus for the Ravens who suffered a lot of injuries down the stretch. Defensive backs Jimmy Smith, Tom Zbikowski and Cary Williams, and reserve linebacker Dannell Ellerbe all have sustained concussions in the past two games. Starting inside linebacker Jameel McClain sprained his knee the last game, while defensive linemen Terrence Cody (hip strain), Haloti Ngata (elbow laceration) and Cory Redding (ankle), safety Bernard Pollard (wrist sprain/elbow contusion) and kicker Billy Cundiff (left calf) are all dealing with nagging things. The last time the Ravens had a playoff bye was in 2006. In their first game after it, they looked completely out of sync and were beaten at home by the Colts, 15-6. Keep in mind the Ravens are 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS at home, but 4-4 SU/4-4 ATS on the road. Patriots (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): The top-seeded Patriots are glad lightening struck again, the second straight year they are the top seed in the AFC. On the other hand, they flamed out a year ago getting upset by the NY Jets in the first playoff game. There are similarities to last year's team. This offense is explosive behind QB Tom Brady (39 TDs, 12 INTs), WR Wes Welker (1,569 yards) and budding young star Rob Gronkowski (1,327 yards), as his 17 TDs set a record for tight ends. The defense, though, is worse than last season, second to last in yards allowed and pass defense because of a slew of changes, including dumping DT Albert Haynesworth in midseason and former Pro Bowl S Brandon Merriweather in September. A year ago the pass defense ranked 30th. They are 11-5 over the total, including a 6-0 run over into the playoffs. 49ers: (13-3 SU, 11-4-1 ATS): The lumbering miracle out of San Francisco surprised everyone under first-year Coach Jim Harbaugh. It's no secret how they got here: run the football on offense and play a rough, physical defense, ranked fourth in total yards allowed and second in points (14.3 ppg). On offense, Harbaugh simplified the offense for QB Alex Smith (17 TDs, 5 INTs) and the 27-year old cut down on his turnovers. However, he still holds the ball too much getting sacked 44 times. The conservative offense has RB Frank Gore (1,211 yards), WR Mike Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis (792). They real question is: Can this defense stay with high powered offenses like the Saints and Packers? They did beat teams with good passing attacks in Dallas (27-24), Pittsburgh (20-3) and the NY Giants (27-24). Packers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS): Defending champion Green Bay was the star of the league all season long with the third-ranked passing game behind QB Aaron Rodgers (45 TDs, 6 INTs, 4,643 yards). They don't run the football well (27th) so it's all-passing all the time, something that will be interesting to watch in the January cold of Lambeau Field. It's still hard to believe they lost to the Chiefs, 19-14, late in the season. But that about this defense? They are last in yards allowed, though 19th in points (22.4 ppg), and the secondary, a strong spot last year, ranks last in yards. Let the games begin! |
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