2011 College Football’s Top 21-40

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Jim Feist - 8/22/2011 11:28 AM

by Jim Feist

It's time to kick off a new football season. College football begins Thursday, September 1st and here’s a look at the top teams, starting with my top 21-40.

40. Oregon State: The Beavers failed to make a bowl because of injuries and the offense went south. For 2011 they return senior QB Ryan Katz (17 TDs, 11 picks) and WR James Rodgers was granted a sixth-year of eligibility, off a knee injury. The No. 1 tailback spot is key, with Ryan McCants or Jordan Jenkins stepping in. Mike Riley may be more concerned about his defense than he is the tailback position because the Beavers lost three of four starters up front, including Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year Stephen Paea. The schedule is tough, with six road games, including the opener at Wisconsin. They bring a 6-0 under the total run into the new season.

39. BYU: The Cougars started off last season with no offense, then got hot down the stretch, finishing on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run. For 2011 they return senior QB Riley Nelson and sophomore QB Jake Heaps, plus a big offensive line returns 4 starters to a unit that averaged 168 yards rushing. Brandon Doman has been promoted to offensive coordinator and wants to have an explosive attack. This offense scored 55, 49, 40, 16 and 52 points the last five games. The defense gave up 21.6 ppg (32nd in the nation) and looks solid. The only concern is the schedule, opening at Ole Miss, at Texas and home against Utah.

38. South Florida: The Bulls (8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) started slow but made it to their sixth straight bowl, the first under Coach Skip Holtz. They went 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS to end the season after the coaching staff made some changes on offense behind mobile junior QB B.J. Daniels. The offense averaged 24.1 points, 144.8 yards rushing and 164 passing, while the defense allowed 20 ppg (22nd in the nation). Junior RB Demetris Murray (533 yards) is back and they bring in transfers RB Darrell Scott (from Colorado) and RB Dontae Aycock (from Auburn). The defense should be strong again, such as in the Miami win when they forced 3 turnovers. South Florida is on an 8-3 run under the total and they open at Notre Dame, plus 27-10 SU, 18-13 ATS at home.

37. Penn State: Joe Paterno is still here, off a 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS season. The offense was erratic because of injuries and young QBs, but return junior Matt McGloin (14 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,548 yards). The key is senior RB Stephfon Green, who has game breaking speed, but hasn't put it all together since his sophomore season. There are only three road games in the first 10 going to Temple, Indiana, and Northwestern, but they host Alabama in Week 2, plus Nebraska November 12. Penn State is 2-11 SU/ATS its last 13 as a dog and 15-10 SU, 13-10-1 ATS its last 25 on the road. Of course, at home the Lions are 39-6 SU, 22-17 ATS!

36. Navy: The Midshipmen are off a9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS campaign as the ground game was sixth nationally with 284.8 yards per game, while the defense was undersized but gave up 22 ppg. Plenty of talent returns. They have to replace option QB Ricky Dobbs, but senior QB Kriss Proctor saw action, rushing for 304 yards, a whopping 9.5 yards per carry! Navy is 55-38-1 against the spread the last eight seasons.

35. Illinois: The Illini (7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) surprised last season under Ron Zook. This offense was mostly running, averaging 32.5 points, 151 yards passing and 246.1 yards rushing and returns sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase (17 TDs, 8 INTS, 1,825 yards), who rushed for 868 yards. Illinois led the Big Ten in rushing (246.1 ypg) for the third time in the last five years. The defense gets three starters back in the secondary, but with Corey Liuget leaving early for the NFL and the loss of end Clay Nurse, the defensive front needs work. Zook is 9-7 SU/6-10 ATS his last 16 games as a home favorite.

34. Auburn: The Tigers (14-0 SU/10-3 ATS) are off a remarkable season for Coach Gene Chizik and brilliant offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. They won the national title averaging 41.2 ppg. So many key players are off to the NFL, but they will build around junior QB Barrett Trotter and junior WR Emory Blake (554 yards). The ground game averaged 284.8 yards, No. 5 in the country, with the help of 5-9 sophomore RB Michael Dyer (1,093 yds, 6.0 ypc) and junior RB Onterio McCalebb (810, 8.5 ypc).

Right tackle Brandon Mosley is the only returning starter on the O-line, but freshman OG Christian Westerman is a top prospect. The linebacking corps needs two new starters and the defensive tackles have to be replaced. Auburn is 20-10 SU, 17-13 ATS the last seven years on the road, but surviving October without a loss is unlikely and the rematch with angry Alabama will be a challenge.

33. Pitt: Todd Graham is Pitt's new football coach, running a version of the spread offense he ran at Tulsa. He has a lot of talent to work with in junior QB Tino Sunseri (16 TDs, 9 INTs), junior RB Ray Graham (922 yards rushing, 6.2 yards per carry) and 6-foot-5 junior WR Mike Shanahan (589 yards). While the offense looks balanced and potentially potent, the defense lost its top players. The only major concern is the schedule, playing at Iowa and home against Notre Dame back to back in September.

32. Clemson: The Tigers could have a new look offensively: Coach Dabo Swinney hired Tulsa's Chad Morris as offensive coordinator. Morris had spent last year running Tulsa's attack, leading the Golden Hurricanes to 41.4 points a game. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd (4 TDs, 3 INTs, 329 yards) saw some time and started the bowl game, a 31-26 loss to South Florida, plus they return junior RB Andre Ellington (686 yards, 5.8 ypc). The defense was very strong, allowing 18.8 points per game, 13th best in the country. The Tigers carry a 15-2 run under the total into the new season.

31. Baylor: The good news is that junior QB Robert Griffin III (22 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,501 yards) returns. He is a dynamic player and was second on the team in rushing with 635 yards. Throw in senior RB Terrance Ganaway (295 yards, 6.4 yards per carry) and senior WR Kendall Wright (952 yards) and this offense is loaded. 8 starters return on offense on a group that averaged 31.2 points, 280.7 yards passing, 194.6 rushing per game. The defense was terrible, which is why new defensive coordinator Phil Bennett comes aboard, along with three decent JUCO transfers for the secondary. Baylor is 6-42 SU, 17-30-1 ATS its last 48 as a dog.

30. Michigan: Michigan (7-6 SU/3-9 ATS) made a bowl last season, but it was an embarrassing season as the Wolverines played no defense while losing 6 of their final 8 games. They have a new style with head coach Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges, plus ten starters return on offense. He is a proponent of a wide-open pro-style/West Coast offense. The offense was No. 13 in the nation with 250 yards rushing per game and 35.2 points and returns junior QB Denard Robinson (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,570 yards). Defensively, Michigan is moving to a four-man front from the 3-3-5 under defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who comes over from the Baltimore Ravens. Michigan is also 12-12 SU/10-14 ATS its last 24 road games.

29. Arkansas: Bobby Petrino lost senior QB Ryan Mallett (32 TDs, 12 INTs) on an offense that was fourth in the nation in passing (333.7 yds per game) and 36.5 points per contest, but junior Tyler Wilson (453 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs) steps in. He replaced Mallett at Auburn in October and threw for 332 yards and four touchdowns against the eventual national champ. He has experienced targets to throw to in senior WR Joe Adams (813 yards), 6-3 senior WR Jarius Wright (788), their top two receivers. Junior RB Knile Davis impressed with 1,322 yards, 6.5 yards per carry. The defensive front was got into the backfield on a regular basis and finished 9th in the nation in sacks. Arkansas is on a 6-2 run over the total.

28. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs (9-4 SU/7-5 ATS) impressed, averaging 29 points and 214.8 yards rushing, making a bowl (smacking Michigan, 52-14). Throw in wins over Florida and Georgia and Dan Mullen has this program overachieving. They rotated two quarterbacks and return senior QB Chris Relf (13 TDs, 6 INTs, 713 yards rushing) and sophomore QB Tyler Russell (5 TDs 6 INTs), rarely throwing the football. The ground game was No. 16 in the nation and returns senior RB Vick Ballard (968 yards). The real surprise was the defense (19.8 ppg), though their linebacking corps lost its top players, plus their defensive coordinator went to Texas.

27. West Virginia: Strange doings in the offseason for the Mountaineers, with Bill Stewart stepping down and newcomer offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen becoming the head coach a year earlier than planned. The new coach has a speedy team (9-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) that returns a lot of its key players, led by junior QB Geno Smith (24 TDs, 7 picks, 2,763 yards). The offensive line looks solid again, led by senior Center Eric Jobe, averaging 162 yards rushing, but don't expect a run-first attack again.

That's because Holgorsen learned the wide-open passing attack at Texas Tech under Mike Leach and brings that to Morgantown. The passing game has 5-foot-9 junior playmaking WR Tavon Austin, who caught 58 passes for 787 yards. The defense has been very strong, allowing 13.5 ppg, third in the nation, but lost 7 starters. West Virginia is on a 12-5 run under the total, but will that continue with their new-look passing offense?

26. Tennessee: The Vols (6-7) had a rough start to the season for new Coach Derek Dooley, but the offense got on a roll. Sophomore QB Tyler Bray (18 TDs, 10 INTs, 1,849 yards) is back along with senior RB Tauren Poole (1,034 yards, 5.1 ypc). Last season they averaged 27 points, 109 yards rushing, 254.5 yards passing, ranking 30th in the nation in passing, but 105th in rushing. The defense (25.1 ppg) was great down the stretch and the secondary has talent, led by star safety Janzen Jackson. The Vols are 19-17 SU/21-14-1 ATS on the road the last seven seasons and on a 9-3 run over the total.

25. Houston: Quarterback U! Houston is a powerhouse offensive team under fourth-year head coach Kevin Sumlin, off a 5-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS season of bad luck, losing 2 QBs. For 2011, they return senior QB Case Keenum (5 TDs, 5 INTs), backup Cotton Turner and sophomore QB David Piland (24 TDs, 14 INTs), who was forced in as a freshman. Even with all the injuries this offense averaged 37.7 points and 327.3 yards passing, the fifth best air attack in the country. The offense is loaded behind senior running back Bryce Beall and senior wide receiver Patrick Edwards. The defense, though, is another story, (32.2 ppg allowed) and the secondary lacks experience. Houston is 26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS at home.

24. Miami: The Canes (7-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) fell apart down the stretch, despite making a bowl, with the firing Randy Shannon, so new Coach Al Golden (Temple) comes aboard along with new offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch. The Hurricanes ran a pro-style attack last season, but they will look to run the football more to cut down on turnovers. They have two QBs in senior QB Jacory Harris (14 TDs, 15 INTs) and sophomore QB Stephen Morris (7 TDs, 9 INTs). The defense was very good, allowing 19.7 ppg (21st in the nation) and they add All-American defensive end Anthony Chickillo, a top recruit. Miami is on an 8-2-1 run under the total.

23: Texas A&M: Head Coach Mike Sherman is a fan of a balanced offense, averaging 31.2 points, 276.8 yards passing and 165 rushing. Texas A&M went 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS campaign, off of a share of the Big 12 South Division title and a Cotton Bowl appearance. 10 starters are back on offense, 8 on the defense. The offense returns junior QB Ryan Tannehill (13 TDs, 6 INTs) along with senior RB Cyrus Gray (1,133 yards, 5.7 ypc). The defense (21.9 ppg allowed) loses All-American Von Miller to the NFL, but there are talented JUCO transfers. A&M carries a 6-1 SU/ATS run into the new season.

22: Texas: The Longhorns (5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS) were awful in 2010, a shocking season. Junior QB Garrett Gilbert (10 TDs, 17 INTs) was a turnover machine, so some new spring formations have been put in for better play-action passing for him. Two starters are back in the backfield, while the defense led the Big 12 and was sixth in the nation in yardage allowed. The defense has a new coordinator in Manny Diaz and a strong LB corps, led by sophomore LB Demarco Cobbs, while 6-foot-5 senior DT Kheeston Randall anchors a solid line. Texas is 63-15 SU, 43-33-1 ATS the last six seasons and 8-5 SU/9-4 ATS its last 13 as a dog.

21. Virginia Tech: The Hokies (11-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) are off another terrific season for Coach Frank Beamer. The job of running the offense will lie in the huge hands of Logan Thomas, whose 6-foot-6, 242-pound frame is loaded with talent. Beamer likes balance on offense and the backfield has speedy junior Tailback David Wilson and was the third leading rusher with 619 yards, 5.5 yards per carry. A young Tech defense, playing seven new starters, gave up some big plays, but allowed just 19.1 points per game (16th in the nation). V-Tech is a stellar 15-6 SU/14-6-1 ATS on the road the last four years.

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