Must Win Games...Friend or Enemy

The most important concept to keep in mind is that nothing really matters more in a “must win game” than what the situation is for the other team! That’s right, the real key comes down to the opponent of the “must win” team. For a fact you know that the “must win” team will be motivated. However, if their opponent is also motivated and if they are also more talented you are onto something! The point is that down the stretch run you will actually find line value in playing against teams that are in a “must win” situation. That’s because it is these teams that grab the public’s attention. We’ve all heard the phrase uttered too many times to recount, “Well I am playing them because they just have to win”. Of course we all know what happens next! A team needing to win and a team capable of winning or, in this case, covering the pointspread, are two very different things.

Be careful of playing right into the teeth of revenge. If you are looking to play a “must win” team but their opponent has revenge from a loss in the last meeting between the teams you should immediately rethink you’re position. You should also be careful of playing a “must win” team if their opponent is playing very well and is relishing the role of “spoiler”. This is why teams that are eliminated from the playoff race are certainly not an automatic “go against” team. It all depends on how they’re playing down the stretch run and the astute handicapper keeps up with all of that. One must evaluate the psyche of a team and see if a coach is genuinely trying to win or if they’re already evaluating young talent for the next season. However, in the latter case, the line on the “must win” team may be overinflated if they’re playing a team that has already “packed it in” on the current season. This is once again why one has to be very cautious in playing the “must win” teams.

In the final three weeks of the NFL season there is very likely to be an increase in the number of surprising upsets. That relates to precisely what we’ve outlined above. Keep this in mind as you handicap the last few weeks of the NFL season. Always keep your eyes open and your ears tuned for the key information that separates the pointspread winners from the pointspread losers every Sunday. Whether it’s a key motivational edge, an inflated pointspread, a letdown situation, etc…all of these are factors that will play a crucial role in finishing up your season on a big winning run. As always, best of luck from Rickenbach’s Players Advantage!

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