A Call to the Pen

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Jim Feist - 6/21/2010 12:10 PM

by Jim Feist

Starting pitchers in baseball get much of the attention (and money) thrown their way. The average starter is asked to go 6-7 innings, while aces are expected to give 7-8 quality innings. Many games are decided in the last three innings, however, making relief pitchers an extremely important, and often overlooked, element.

The use of effective relievers is nothing new. Specialized closers were around in the 1960s, with terrific relievers like Dick Radatz, John Hiller, Luis Arroyo and knuckeballer Hoyt Wilhelm. During the early 1970s, the Oakland Athletics had a deep bullpen with Rollie Fingers, Dave Hamilton and Darold Knowles. That group helped win three straight World Series from 1972-74. Then came the Big Red Machine, and Sparky Anderson had lights-out relievers in Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick. That has evolved into a situation where today managers league-wide use a variety of closers, middlemen and lefty/righty specialists.

It's important from a betting perspective to examine which teams have solid bullpen depth and which ones don't. Cleveland had a deep bullpen in 2007 that helped get them to the seventh game of the ALCS, but the pen has completely fallen apart the last three seasons. The Rockies had a lot of effective relievers that same season, which was a huge key in their shocking late 21-1 run that led to the NL pennant.

In 2007 the eventual champion Red Sox had outstanding starting pitching, with Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield going 6-7 innings almost every night. That took a load off the bullpen, which was outstanding while being used only sparingly. That's why starters who can stay healthy and eat innings have value beyond their numbers, as they can have a domino effect on the relief staff. This season, a deep Red Sox pen made up for a surprisingly shaky starting staff early in the season and they are all throwing much better now.

The Yankees righted the ship last season by getting two huge innings-eaters with the additions of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Remember that two years ago at this time, after Chien-Ming Wang's 7 innings per start, Andy Pettitte was averaging under 6 innings, Mike Mussina was averaging under 5, while Ian Kennedy (4), Phil Hughes (3.5) and Kei Igawa (3) were shelled early and often. That team underachieved and failed to make the postseason.

The teams with the fewest saves? The Brewers, Indians, Rockies and Orioles. Milwaukee has had a train wreck season largely because of an explosive bullpen, starting the season with 10 saves and 10 blown saves. When you realize they had one complete game, that shows how much they relied and failed with the pen. Their struggles, particularly at home where the Brew Crew has been money-burners, is even more surprising when you examine their offense, which is one of the best in the NL.

The Rockies bullpen has actually been decent with Randy Flores, Matt Belisle and Matt Daley setting up closer Manuel Corpos. Their lack of saves is probably more of an aberration and likely to turn around: they rank 25th in blown saves, so there simply haven’t been a lot of opportunities.

Strong bullpens can help keep scoring down from the sixth inning on. Two years ago, the Angels had a dynamite bullpen which helped fuel a stretch where they won 10 of 15 games, going 13-2 under the total. Over a nine-game stretch, the relievers didn't allow a run in 17 innings. It's been a different story in 2010, with a shaky pen that contributed to a recent 15-9 run over the total.

A key to the Atlanta Braves run the last month has been a reliable pen, anchored by 38-year old closer Billy Wagner. Starter Jair Jurrjens has been out since the end of April, but is making rehabs starts and is expected back soon. While Jurrjens hasn't been in Atlanta, pitcher Kris Medlen has stepped into his spot in the Atlanta rotation and gone 3-0 with a 3.59 ERA in seven starts. The Braves have won six of the seven games he has started. Moving someone to the pen could make the Atlanta pitching even stronger.

Teams that go with a lot of untested young arms can experience breakdowns. If the kids can't throw a lot of innings, that can wear down a pen fast, something to keep an eye on. You can't pay too little attention to the pen, which is a huge part of baseball success today, on the field and at the betting window.

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