NFL Team Props Part II

In my last NFL team proposition article I reviewed the Cleveland Browns. In this article I’ll break down the Cincinnati Bengals and give reasons on why I believe they should finish UNDER the posted number this season. 

Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 9 Regular Season Wins

The Bengals finished the regular ‘06/’07 season 8-8 ‘straight up’ and 8-7-1 ‘against the spread’. Needing to win the final game of the season to advance to the playoffs, the Bengals lost a heart breaker at home, 23-17 to the Steelers. They had one of the league’s best offenses, averaging 23.3 ppg and posted the league average in points against, 20.7.

With a healthy Carson Palmer and two, top-tier, focused receivers in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals fans are salivating over the their team’s chances this season. However, let’s break down their schedule and I’ll give you a few reasons why I suspect Cincinnati backers will get their hearts torn out again.

Week 1: vs. Ravens             Week 10: @ Ravens

Week 2: @ Browns                        Week 11: vs. Cardinals

Week 3: @ Seahawks                     Week 12: vs. Titans

Week 4: vs. Patriots             Week 13: @ Steelers

Week 6: @ Chiefs               Week 14: vs. Rams

Week 7: vs. Jets                  Week 15: @ 49’ers

Week 8: vs. Steelers                        Week 16: vs. Browns

Week 9: @ Bills                  Week 17: @ Dolphins

Let’s start with the supposed “gimme’s”: Week’s 2 and 16 versus the Browns, Week 9 against the Bills, Week 11 versus the Cardinals, Week 12 against the Titans and Week 17 versus the Dolphins. Barring any major upsets the Bengals should be able to take care of these teams without a problem. However, consistent play over the last few years is something the Bengals have lacked. 5-1

The Bengals will be tested in their opener and also in Week 10 when they go up against the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals have had success against the Ravens since Palmer has been QB, in fact the only time they faced the Ravens at home last year they won a low scoring affair, 13-7. But, after advancing to the playoffs last year, the Ravens are set to do even more damage this season. I’m giving the Bengals a home-and-home split in this match up. 1-1

The Bengals rarely play in Seattle, in fact the last time Cincinnati was there was in 1999. Cincinnati was a 14-point dog in that game and lost 37-20. The Seahawks traveled to play the Bengals in 2003 and Cincinnati came away with the SU and ATS win. This is 2007 though, and the Bengals will be the Seahawks first big challenge of the year in Week 3. As they’ll be in a dogfight with the 49’ers and the Rams for the NFC West title, I expect the Seahawks to do just enough to get the win at home. 0-1

The mighty New England Patriots charge into Cincinnati in Week 4. This will be a huge game for the Bengals and they will obviously be ‘pumped up’ for the game, however, the last time these teams tangled in Cincinnati was last year and the Pat’s hammered the Bengals 38-13. There’s just too much firepower on both sides of the ball for New England. 0-1

The Bengals are in Kansas City in Week 6 to take on the Chiefs in arguably the most difficult stadium for visiting teams to play in. With Trent Green injured at the beginning of the season last year, the Chiefs floundered, however, the QB issues are over and the Chiefs should prove to be one of the best home teams in ‘07/’08. 0-1

Another team that Cincinnati rarely plays at home is the Jets, however they fly into town in Week 7. The last time these teams collided was in 2004 in New York and the Jets shot down the Bengals 31-24. With Eric Mangini in the cockpit, the Jets became a playoff team and the ‘Man Genius’ won himself an AFC coach of the year award. Chad Pennington finished last season by setting career marks in yards, TD's, completions, and attempts, earning him honors as the 2006 NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The Jet’s cruise to the victory on the road in this one. 0-1

Cincinnati tangles with one of their most fiercest opponents, the Pittsburgh Steelers in Weeks 8 and 13. As mentioned in my opening paragraph, the Bengals lost on New Year’s eve to the Steelers and failed to advance to the playoffs last year. As was evident in the ‘Hall Of Fame Game’, Pittsburgh is still a force to be reckoned with. I’m going to give the Bengals the benefit of the doubt again though with the home-and-home split.

1-1

The last time the Bengals and Rams met was in St. Louis back in 2003 and the Rams won 27-10. This time around they duel it out in Cincinnati. I expect the Rams to have a big campaign this year, however, they certainly play better in a Dome. 1-0

That leaves Week 15 in San Francisco. A few years ago this game would have been lumped into the “gimme’s” category, however no longer. One of the most surpising teams last year, the 49’ers only look better this time around and will be challenging for the NFC West crown. With a run defense that was right in the middle of the pack, the Bengals will have their hands full with Frank Gore. 0-1

When you add that up the Cincinnati Bengals end their 2007/2008 season with a 7-9 record. Even if they manage to upset one of the top teams, the best they’ll finish is 8-8 again.

It's very possible that the Bengals will have a more talented team on paper this year than last, and still finish with a worse record. Off field "problems" combined with an unfavorable schedule make the "under" worthy of consideration.

Back to Article Listing