MLB Betting: Give Me Some Relief!
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| Jim Feist - 6/16/2013 9:59 AM |
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by Jim Feist
Starting pitchers in baseball get much of the attention (and money) thrown their way. The average starter is asked to go 6-7 innings, while aces are expected to give 7-8 quality innings. Many games are decided in the last three innings, however, making relief pitchers an extremely important, and often overlooked, element. The Boston Red Sox had a train wreck 2012 season under one-and-done manager Bobby Valentine. 2013 has been completely different under John Farrell and there's little doubt what has turned the tables: pitching. The Red Sox were a top 8 team in runs scored in 2012 and they are first this season despite trading away Adrian Gonzalez. But Boston was awful on the mound last year, 27th in team ERA. This season: 12th in team ERA. Farrell was their former pitching coach when they won World Series titles in 2004 and 2007, so he's familiar with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, both who are enjoying great bounce back seasons. What stands out is strikeouts: Boston ranked 20th last year, now they are second behind the Tigers. They loaded up on relievers in the offseason to upgrade a bad pen and that, despite injuries, has paid huge dividends. The use of effective relievers is nothing new. Specialized closers were around in the 1960s, with terrific relievers like Dick Radatz, John Hiller, Luis Arroyo and knuckeballer Hoyt Wilhelm. During the early 1970s, the Oakland Athletics had a deep bullpen with Rollie Fingers, Dave Hamilton and Darold Knowles. That group helped win three straight World Series from 1972-74. Then came the Big Red Machine, and Sparky Anderson had lights-out relievers in Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick. That has evolved into a situation where today managers league-wide use a variety of closers, middlemen and lefty/righty specialists. Oakland continues to be a force with a strong offense despite playing half their games in a huge, pitcher friendly park. While their five starters have ERAs over 3, the relief staff has been deep and dominant behind Jerry Blevins, Ryan Cook, Pat Neshek and closer Grant Balfour. Less worry with extra-inning games when there is reliable depth in the pen. It's important from a betting perspective to examine which teams have solid bullpen depth and which ones don't. The 2012 champion Giants won with the rock solid arms of Lincecum, Cain, Volgelsong, Zito and Bumgarner. That took a load off the bullpen, which was outstanding while being used only sparingly: The 2012 Giants had only two starts made by pitchers beyond those Big 5. That's why starters who can stay healthy and eat innings have value beyond their numbers, as they can have a domino effect on the relief staff. The Yankees righted the ship in 2009 by getting two huge innings-eaters with the additions of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Two years ago they failed to add free agent starter Cliff Lee and the strains showed on an aging starting staff that has wilted the last two Octobers and has been struggling this year. Two years ago the Milwaukee Brewers added Shaun Marcum and Zach Greinke alongside ace Yovani Gallardo and won the division. The last two years have been a fire sale of arms and they've paid the price, with weak starters and a taxed and ineffective pen. Their team ERA is last in the NL and third worst in baseball. Keep in mind the over is 42-17-2 over the total against a bad team, one with a winning percentage below .400. Two bad pitching staffs can mean higher scoring contests. Don't be surprised if you see teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Reds and D-Backs looking for relief help before next month's trading deadline. Detroit has Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer throwing well, but 35-year old Jose Valverde hasn't been a lock down closer. They've struggled on the road, 15-37 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Strong bullpens can help keep scoring down from the sixth inning on. Five years ago, the Angels had a dynamite bullpen which helped fuel a stretch where they won 10 of 15 games, going 13-2 under the total. Over a nine-game stretch, the relievers didn't allow a run in 17 innings. Teams that go with a lot of untested young arms can experience breakdowns. If the kids can't throw a lot of innings, that can wear down a pen fast, something to keep an eye on. You can't pay too little attention to the pen, which is a huge part of baseball success today, on the field and at the betting window. |
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