NCAA Pre-Season Top 20 Preview: Nos. 16-20

Welcome to the final part of our pre-season Top 20 analysis. In this final edition we will take a look at how teams 16-20 have performed against the number since 2003, and determine when and if they will be a smart play. Can Rutgers repeat as Big East Champs or is the bullseye just too big? Will Arkansas off field issues keep them from a repeat of last years 10-4 performance, or will this talented squad rise to the occasion? Find out the answer to each of these questions and more as we round out the preseason Top 20.

16. Rutgers

Last year the Scarlet Knights came from nowhere to win the Big East, and Head Coach Greg Schiano earned Coach of the Year honors. After an 11 win season can Rutgers repeat or is the bullseye just too big? With seven returning offensive starters and six on defense look for Rutgers to be in the Beg East hunt again this season. After a combined 9-14 SU in 2003-2004 the Scarlet Knight turned it around in 2005 with a 7-5 SU mark. Then in 2006 they exploded on to the scene with an 11-2 SU and 9-3 ATS mark on their way to the Big East title. Since the turnaround in 2005 they are a combined 14-9 ATS, and in the Big East they are 7-8 ATS. As home favorites they excelled with a 6-2 ATS record while posting an equally impressive 6-1 ATS mark as road dogs. As home dogs they are 1-1 ATS and as road favorites they are a poor 1-5 ATS. Look for Rutgers as either home favorites or road dogs. Just be careful, a repeat of last season’s performance may be tough.

17. UCLA

This team is stacked! With 10 starters returning on both offense and defense the Bruins will be tough to stop. Last season the Bruins defense, one of the best in the nation, held seven opponents to under 300 yards. UCLA looks good on paper but with eight bowl opponents on their schedule things could get tough. With a 29-21 SU record to go along with a 26-23-1 ATS mark since 2003 and the Burins look fairly average. In the PAC-10 they hold a 17-15-1 ATS record and a 19-14 SU mark. At home the Bruins are 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-0 ATS as a dog. On the road they are 3-9 ATS as a favorite and 7-6 ATS as a dog. Nothing spectacular there! If you feel the need to put your hard earned money on the Bruins look for them as a home dog only.

18. Penn State

Is this the year mega-hyped quarterback Anthony Morelli puts it all together and lives up to the expectations? It better be! With six defensive and eight offensive starter back including their top three receivers the Nittany Lions look ready to make a serious run at the Big-10 title. After a combined 7-16 SU mark in 2003-2004 Penn State turned the corner in 2005 posting a combined 20-5 SU record over the next two seasons. Let’s look at how they performed against the number those last two years. They were a combined 13-11 ATS with a 9-7 ATS mark in the Big-10. At home they put up a 6-4 ATS record as a favorite and a 2-1 ATS mark as a dog. On the road they were 2-3 ATS as a dog and 3-3 ATS as a favorite. Although they appear to have turned things around when it comes to wins and losses they still have a long way to go before they see any of my money.

19. Nebraska

Are the defending Big-12 North champs ready to return to elite status or will they continue to hover right on the edge? Nine wins last season suggests they are ready, but the departure of QB Zac Taylor might slow their ascension slightly. Since 2003 the Cornhuskers are 32-18 SU and 25-21-1 ATS. In Big-12 action they hold a 17-15-1 ATS record and an 18-15 SU mark. At home Nebraska holds an 11-9 ATS record as favorites and a 3-1 ATS mark as dogs. On the road they are 8-3-1 ATS as favorites and 3-8 ATS as dogs. Watch for the Cornhuskers as road favorites. They whip on the teams they are supposed to beat.

20. Arkansas

Arkansas rebounded from two losing season with an impressive 10-4 SU campaign in 2005. Will their off field issues keep them from a repeat performance or will this talented squad rise to the occasion? The Razorbacks seem to be a tale of two teams. In 2003 and 2006 they combined for a 19-8 SU mark, while they only managed a 9-13 SU combined record in 2004-2005. One thing we know for sure is win or lose they don’t cover the spread. Since 2003, Arkansas has a 23-24 ATS record. In the SEC they hold a four year 16-16 ATS record. At home they are a combined 10-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-4 ATS as a dog. On the road they aren’t much better posting a 4-4 ATS record as a favorite and an 8-5 ATS mark as a dog. With only 10 returning starters, a new quarterback, and all the off-field turmoil stay away from the Razorbacks.

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