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Welcome to part three of our pre-season Top 20 analysis. In this edition we will take a look at how teams 11-15 have performed against the number since 2003, and determine when and if they will be a smart play this season. Can anyone stop Louisville and their high octane offense? Will California build off last season’s success or fade in the powerful PAC-10? Find out the answer to each of these question and more as we preview college footballs number 11 through 15. Don’t forget to check back next week when we look at the schools ranked 16 through 20 in this year’s pre-season poll.
11. Louisville
Last season the Cardinals came within three points of a perfect season, when Rutgers pulled off a 28-25 upset, and a shot at the national championship. This season, Louisville has a new head coach, Steve Kragthorpe from Tulsa, and Heisman candidate quarterback Brian Brohm back at the helm. With eight offensive starters and six defensive starters back Louisville looks poised for another run at the title. Over the last four seasons the Cardinals posted a 41-9 SU record and a 30-20 ATS mark. In conference play the Cardinals are 17-13 ATS for 57 percent since 2003. Despite the tremendous SU record the Cardinals have struggled ATS. As a road dog Louisville has posted a 3-3 ATS mark and as a road favorite they are a poor 10-11 ATS over the last four seasons. It’s as a home favorite that the Cardinals shine with a 17-6 ATS for 74 percent mark since 2003. It becomes obvious that if you want to make money on Louisville, look for them as a home favorite.
12. California
After finishing the 2006 campaign with a 10-3 record, a share of the PAC-10 title and a huge upset win over rival USC, the Bears are looking for more this season. With eight offensive starters returning, including QB Nate Longshore and his three favorite receivers, Cal should once again give USC a run for the PAC-10 title. Although the Bears are riding a 36-15 SU record, they are only 25-22-2 ATS over the past four seasons. In the PAC-10 Cal is not a solid bet with a 17-14-1 ATS record. Since 2003, the Bears are .500 against the number at home with an 11-11 ATS record. They aren’t much better on the road posting a 14-11-2 ATS mark. The bottom line for Cal is they just don’t cover. Even though the Bears own a 71 percent winning clip over the past four seasons they’ve only covered the number 53 percent of the time.
13. Georgia
Posting nine wins last season after four straight double digit win campaigns in a row was a major disappointment for the Bulldogs. Once again Georgia will have one of the nation’s best defensive units. Offensively they will look for a healthy RB Kregg Lumpkin, and promising QB Matthew Stafford to carry the load. Since 2003 the Bulldogs have posted a 40-11 SU and 23-25-2 ATS record. In SEC play the Bulldogs are not a safe bet with a 15-17-2 ATS record. In fact the Bulldogs aren’t a safe bet in any situation. At home they have a 10-18 ATS mark, and on the road they are 13-12-2 ATS over the past four season. In the ultra competitive SEC wins obviously do not translate into covers, at least for the Bulldogs.
14. Auburn
All the Auburn Tigers do is win football games! Over the past four seasons they have amassed a 41-9 SU overall record, and a 27-6 SU mark in the SEC. Once again, as with Georgia all the wins in the world don’t add up to covers when you play in the SEC. In the same four year span the Tigers have a 27-21 ATS overall mark. However, in the case of the Tigers, they do seem to make a little cash in SEC play with a 21-12 ATS for 64 percent record. You won’t lose any money playing Auburn at home where they own a 15-11 ATS record for 58 percent over the past four seasons. On the road they are a push with a 12-10 ATS for 55 percent mark since 2003. Take away the 2005 season, when they produced an 8-3 ATS overall mark and a 7-1 ATS conference record and it becomes obvious playing the Tigers is a losing proposition.
15. Tennessee
Off a dreadful 5-6 mark in 2005 the Vols rebounded with a nine win, New Years day bowl campaign in 2006. With the return of UT’s most accurate QB Erik Ainge and TE Chris Brown things are looking even more promising for the 2007 season. Even with 2005’s complete meltdown the Vols have amassed a 34-16 SU record over the past four seasons. Once again, playing in the SEC limits their money making potential. Since 2003, the Vols have a 22-27-1 ATS overall record and a 15-17-1 ATS mark in the SEC. They are terrible proposition at home, posting a 7-19-1 ATS record over the past four seasons. On the road, they are a little better with an 8-4 ATS mark as a dog, and a 7-4 ATS record as a favorite. It’s obvious, Tennessee likes to travel. If you feel a strong desire to put your hard earned cash on the Vols do it on the road where they are a 65 percent proposition.
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