Strykers Big 10 Preview - October 30th

Back to Article Listing

Tom Stryker - 10/29/2010 11:15 AM

BIG 10 PREVIEW – Saturday, October 30th

Planning on purchasing Rose Bowl tickets after the action this week in the Big Ten? Don’t do it. There are too many games involving high-power teams and the chase for the title is still up for grabs. Only unbeaten Michigan State can control its own Big Ten – and maybe BCS destiny after the Spartans came from behind to beat Northwestern and move to 8-0 for the season. Michigan State is ranked 5th in the polls this week.

Let’s take a look at this week’s games.

Purdue at ILLINOIS

Coach Ron Zook is getting some impressive play from his young Illini team, 4-3 and 2-2. After beating Indiana handily last week, the Illinois defense should have a field day against injury-battered Purdue, 4-3, 2-1. The NCAA shows that Illinois has played the toughest schedule in the nation at this point of the season, and Purdue should not be much of a test. The three Illinois losses were to teams with a combined record of 22-1.

Illinois has only allowed 17.7 points per game, 15th nationally, and the Illini are 18th in rushing defense at 112.4 yards per game. Purdue has all kinds of problems on offense, losing during the season its top wide receiver, its starting quarterback and its top running back.

Purdue has won five straight from Illinois, but redshirt freshman QB Rob Henry will have to have the game of his young career to hurt the Illini. Henry is the first quarterback in modern time to lead Purdue in rushing three times in the same season. There is a chance that Henry might not go against Illinois too. Rob hurt the right index finger (laceration and lost the fingernail) on his throwing hand last week against Ohio State. If he has trouble, the Boilers will turn to freshman Sean Robinson.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Illinois 12-12 SU and 10-13- ATS last 24 and 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS last 10 against Purdue.

KEY ANGLES: Illinois 5-19 ATS L24 at home facing a foe that checks in off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.

Purdue 3-52-1 SU and 20-34-2 ATS priced as a road dog and battling a foe that enters off a straight up win.

Michigan State at IOWA

This is clearly the top game in the conference on Saturday. Kirk Ferentz’ Hawkeyes lost to Wisconsin last week and now stand 5-2, 2-1. Another Big Ten loss will remove them from championship hopes in all likelihood.

Michigan State, however, is 4-0 in the league and fifth in the current BCS standings. The Spartans have scored at least 26 points in each game – the first Michigan State team to do so through the first 8 games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has added some passing to the always-rugged Michigan State running game. This game is so big for the Spartans, who only have Minnesota, Purdue and Penn State remaining on the schedule.

The Hawkeyes, who beat the Spartans in East Lansing on the last play of the game a year ago, will have to rely on its defense if they are to bounce back from the loss to Wisconsin. Iowa is 8th in the nation in rushing defense at 92.1 yards per game, and 11th in scoring defense at 15.7. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi continues to lead the Big Ten in passing efficiency at 174.88.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa 15-8-1 SU and 17-7 ATS last 24 including 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss.

KEY ANGLES: Iowa is 23-8-2 ATS in conference play coming off a straight up loss including 12-3-2 ATS in this role facing a foe that arrives off a straight up victory.

Michigan State 17-4 ATS last 21 as a guest checking in with momentum off two or more straight up wins including a perfect 9-0 ATS in this role priced as an underdog of +9 or less.

Northwestern at INDIANA

Take cover. There will be nothing but footballs in the air when these two pass-happy teams square off in Bloomington Saturday.

Stinging from two straight home losses, Northwestern (5-2, 1-2) has won seven of its last nine road Big Ten games and needs its sixth victory to become bowl eligible. Northwestern closes with games at Penn State, home against Iowa and Illinois and on the road at Wisconsin – a rugged closing slate.

Junior quarterback Dan Person continues to lead the nation in pass completion percentage, and his counterpart for Indiana, Ben Chappell, is first in passing yards per game at 313.6. Junior wide receiver Tandon Doss also is a major part of the I.U. offensive arsenal. He leads the country in all-purpose yards at 183.3 per game for the 4-3, 0-3 Hoosiers of Bill Lynch.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Indiana 15-11 SU and 15-10-1 ATS last 26 including 8-4 SU and ATS in their last 12 at Bloomington.

KEY ANGLES: Indiana 29-57 SU and 32-54 ATS as a Big 10 host provided the Hoosiers check in off a straight up loss. As an underdog in this role, the Big Red have posted a miserable 9-44 SU and 15-38 ATS record in their last 53 tries.

Northwestern 48-24-1 ATS as a guest facing a foe that checks in off a straight up loss including a blistering 38-11 ATS in this role priced as a favorite or an underdog of +17 or less.

Ohio State at MINNESOTA

Interim head coach Jeff Horton of Minnesota really has his hands full. After hosting Ohio State this Saturday, the Gophers close with games against Michigan State, Illinois and Iowa. The current 1-7, 0-4 could be much worse a month from now.

Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes (7-1, 3-1) hope to keep their Big Ten title hopes alive when they play the Gophers under the lights Saturday night. The Buckeyes are 6th in the nation in scoring offense and 9th in the nation in scoring defense. The Bucks are averaging 40.8 points in Big Ten play.

Quarterbacks Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State (6,998 career total yards) and senior captain Adam Weber of Minnesota will be the players to watch in this one.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State 23-3 SU and 16-10 ATS last 26 against Minnesota.

KEY ANGLES: Minnesota 5-20 SU and 7-16-2 ATS as a conference host tackling an opponent that checks in with momentum off a SU and ATS win.

Ohio State 54-9 SU and 41-21-1 ATS as a guest facing a foe that enters off a straight up loss including 36-15 ATS in this role priced as a favorite of -25 or less.

Michigan at PENN STATE

After two stinging defeats to Michigan State and Iowa, the 5-2, 1-2 Wolverines will be hoping their explosive offense can get them back on the winning side of the ledger. Michigan tops the Big Ten with 532 yards per game.

The Nittany Lions (4-3, 1-2) beat Minnesota a week ago in a game that saw freshman quarterback Rob Bolden go down in the second quarter. If Bolden cannot go Saturday, the burden will fall to Matt McGloin, who saw his first extended playing time in the win over Minnesota. Look for Evan Royster (5.1 yards per carry) to get plenty of work against the Michigan defense – the sore spot for Rich Rodriguez’ crew thus far in 2010.

Penn State’s Paterno, with 396 career victories, still has to play Ohio State and Michigan State.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS last 15 but just 1-5 ATS last six in this role if Penn State enters with momentum off a SU and ATS win.

KEY ANGLES: Penn State 35-4 SU and 23-14 ATS last 39 facing a foe that enters off back-to-back straight up losses.

Michigan 13-27-2 ATS last 42 road favorite roles including 5-16-1 ATS in this role matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win.

Back to Article Listing