Pro Football Stats: Read Between the Lines

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Jim Feist - 9/6/2010 12:42 PM

The best time of the sports calendar is here, the opening week of the pro football campaign! There are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it's essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. They don't always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie, something to keep in mind when searching for football picks.

Sure, it's important to ask such questions as, "How many yards passing per game does his team get? How big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What's their home record the last five years, straight up and against the spread?" However, it's important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats from the 2009 NFL season:

*The Texans were first in passing offense.
*The Broncos were No. 7 in total defense.
*The Colts were 32nd in rushing offense.
*The Titans were No. 12 in total offense.
*The Panthers ranked third in rushing offense.
*The Patriots had the No. 11 total defense.

Now, all of those 2009 stats are true. However, they don't tell the real story about a football team's strengths, either. For instance, the Texans and Colts were dynamite passing the football in part because their offensive line and ground games were so poor. Subsequently, you can look at a stat like the Colts being ranked last in the NFL in rushing and think their offensive might be below average, when in fact they were as potent as anybody, ranked 7th overall in points scored (26 ppg).

The Titans may have rolled up enough yards to be No. 12 in total offense, but they don't strike most fans as a strong offensive team. It's the ground game, behind Chris Johnson that is so good, but the lack of balance hurts when they fall behind or when they face teams that can stuff the run. How did they go against the Jets, Steelers and Patriots, three teams that could stop the run? 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS, losing 13-10, 24-17 and 59-0.

Contrast that to 2008 when the Titans were only 21st in total offense, which gives the impression they were a weak offensive team. However, they ended up 13-3 with the top seed in the AFC playoffs with the No. 7 rushing offense in the game. It was a ball control offense that played to its strengths, with a veteran QB (Kerry Collins) who was a game manager. Even in the 13-10 playoff loss to the great Baltimore defense, the Titans rolled up 391 yards (275 passing). In short, they were better offensively in 2008 than the overall ranking might suggest.

That was just as true for the champion Steelers, who ranked 22nd in total offense in 2008. Like Tennessee, the Steelers were ball control offense with a sensational defense. But the offense was no liability, with a talented passing game of QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. We saw how good that passing offense could be when they needed a quick score - in the final seconds of the Super Bowl.

Back in 2004 and 2005 the Steelers ranked 28th and 24th in passing offense, yet those "poor" stats were deceptive. The Steelers are primarily a power-running team, and highly successful at it, getting out in front early and then chewing up the clock. It worked often during a 15-1 regular season in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl in 2005. They didn't need to pass a lot, although when forced to pass, they were able to move the ball through the air with Roethlisberger and terrific wide receivers. The stats may suggest a poor passing team, but the reality was quite different.

The Patriots last season ranked 11th in total defense, which is pretty good. However, it was an erratic defense, one that shut down bad offensive teams (Bucs, Jets, Titans, bills, Panthers), but got lit up by the Colts, Saints and Ravens. There was a lot of youth in the secondary and they were prone to giving up big plays and weak in the red zone, something we again saw this preseason.

Back in 2008 the 49ers ranked 13th in passing offense with 211 yards in the air per game. But that was because Mad Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator, relying more on the air attack. And let's face it: The 49ers of 2008 were not a scary passing offense, with team totals of 21 TDs and 19 interceptions behind Shaun Hill and J.T. O'Sullivan. Keep that in mind when you watch the Bears this season, as Martz is the new OC.

In 2008 the Arizona Cardinals ranked dead last in rushing offense, but couldn't be classified as a weak offensive team. Arizona ranked fourth in the NFL in total yards and third in points. It was reminiscent of three years ago, when the Saints were ranked 28th overall in rushing offense, but that was deceptive. They had plenty of offensive talent and balance with RBs Deuce McAllister and then-rookie Reggie Bush. No one wanted to face them as the Saints ranked No. 1 in total offense because of a devastating passing game and spread attack.

Three years ago Cleveland was No. 13 against the pass, but anyone watching the Browns saw a very poor defense. They were 25th against the run, so teams could wear them down on the ground, making the passing game just as effective. The Browns allowed 238 points, one of the poorest marks in the league. Successful handicappers dig deep and weigh all the strengths and weaknesses before heading to the betting window. All of which is needed when searching for football picks.

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