Strykers Big 10 Preview - Saturday, Nov 6th

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Tom Stryker - 11/5/2010 2:01 PM

When Iowa summarily thumped unbeaten and No. 5 Michigan State last Saturday, 37-6, two things became very clear. It is highly unlikely – next to impossible – that any Big Ten team will be playing for the national championship. And, it ensured a frantic finish to the conference season and the coveted Rose Bowl berth.

Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State all have one loss in conference play – so get your tiebreaker rules out. Only the matchup on November 20th between Iowa and visiting Ohio State pits the current leaders. A three-way tie could result – assuming no one loses in any other remaining games.

Iowa at INDIANA

Unless the Hawkeyes (6-2, 3-1) suffer a huge letdown, the Hoosiers should be victim No. 7 for Iowa.
Ranked No. 8 nationally in scoring defense, Kirk Ferentz’ Hawkeyes might give fits to the Ben Chappell-led Hoosiers. Indiana (4-4, 0-4) has been struggling offensively the last two weeks, scoring only 13 against Illinois and 17 against Illinois, both losses.

Iowa, meanwhile, is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, averaging 34.1 points a game. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi has thrown for 19 touchdowns, and running back Adam Robinson is averaging 100.8 yards rushing per game.

Chappell will need his best game. He currently is fourth in the nation with 26.8 completions per game and fifth in the nation with 305.6 passing yards per game.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS since 1980 including 12-5 ATS provided the Hawkeyes are priced as a favorite.

KEY ANGLES: Indiana 12-54 SU and 23-43 ATS priced as a Big 10 home dog since 1985 including a dismal 9-44 SU and 16-37 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss.

Iowa 12-3 SU and ATS as a Big 10 guest provided the Hawkeyes smashed the pointspread by 19 or more in their last game.

Illinois at MICHIGAN

This is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. Illinois (5-3, 3-2) has been impressive in its last two victories, while Michigan (5-3, 1-3) has lost three straight.

Ron Zook’s Illini are 12th in the nation, allowing only 16.8 points per game, while redshirt quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase (70.2% , 9 touchdowns in the five victories) and running back Michael Leshoure (4.9 yards per carry) fuel the offense.

Michigan, trying to become bowl eligible, still has games left at Purdue, home against Wisconsin and at Ohio State.

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson, when he can stay in the game, has been impressive. Even missing parts of three ballgames with various injuries, he is second in the nation in total offense with 349.5 yards a game. But the Michigan defense is not what it used to be. The Wolverines have given up 34 or more points in five of their eight outings.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan 19-5-2 SU and 13-13 ATS since 1980. However, the Wolverines are 0-2 SU in the last two meetings with the Illini.

KEY ANGLES: Michigan now 14-21 SU and 10-22-1 ATS in its last 35 games including 4-18 SU and 3-18-1 ATS in its last 22 tries matched up against a Big 10 foe.

Illinois 22-11-1 SU and 20-13-1 ATS with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins including 8-2-1 ATS in this role on foreign soil.

Northwestern at PENN STATE

Coach Joe Paterno goes for his 400th career victory Saturday when the Wildcats come calling. Joe Pa’s kids handled Michigan last Saturday, with redshirt sophomore Matt McGloin working at quarterback – the first walk-on to start for Paterno at that position.

McGloin was 17 of 28 for 250 yards and a touchdown against the Wolverines, while Evan Royster became the Nittany Lions career rushing leader. He stands at 3,578 yards going into the matchup with Northwestern. Rob Bolden, who started at quarterback the first 7 games, should be available again Saturday.

Penn State, at 5-3, 2-2, knows it must rely on its defense to stop Northwestern (6-2, 2-2).
The Purple Cats are led by QB Dan Persa, whose completion percentage of .744 is second in the nation. The Wildcats currently are operating on a 6-game road winning streak.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS in its last 13 versus Northwestern but just 2-5 ATS in this series priced as a dog or a favorite of -16 or less.

KEY ANGLES: Penn State stands 18-30-1 ATS in its last 49 games checking in with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins including a miserable 7-16-1 ATS in this role in Happy Valley.

Northwestern is a surprising 11-45 SU and 21-35 ATS on the road facing a foe that enters off a SU and ATS win including just 12-27 ATS provided the Wildcats are tackling an opponent that checks in off a blowout win of 10 points or more last.

Wisconsin at PURDUE

Wisconsin (7-1, 3-1) should be able to hang on to its share of the conference lead when it visits West Lafayette Saturday. The banged up Boilers are 4-4, 0-2, but have lost two straight. Danny Hope’s team is young and has lost its season starting quarterback, top wide receiver and top running back.

The Badgers are ranked No. 7 and have plenty of weapons to throw at Purdue, including freshman running back James White, who is averaging 6.6 yards a carry. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has been steady, if not sensational, averaging 194.8 yards a game with a completion percentage average of 71.8.

After the meeting with Purdue, the Badgers host Illinois, travel to Michigan and return home for Northwestern.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Wisconsin holds a 13-8-1 SU and 12-10 ATS record in the last 22 battles including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record in the last four meetings.

KEY ANGLES: Purdue is a shocking 11-35 SU and 15-31 ATS in its last 46 meetings against an opponent that holds a won/loss percentage greater than .500 including a stiff 8-19 ATS in this role provided the Boilermakers enter without steam off a straight up loss.

Wisconsin is a soft 9-19 ATS as a Big 10 guest tackling an opponent that arrives off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.

Minnesota at MICHIGAN STATE

Interim Coach Jeff Horton’s hapless Gophers (1-8, 0-5) will be facing an angry group of Spartans, who saw any glimmer of a national title buried in a lopsided loss at Iowa last week. Michigan State fell to No. 14 and stands 8-1, 4-1.

A bright spot for Minnesota has been quarterback Adam Weber, who has started 47 consecutive games and has thrown 69 career touchdown passes.

The Spartans balanced attack is fueled by quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has 5,136 career passing yards and has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 straight games. Michigan State will close with a home game against Purdue and the finale on the road at Penn State.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan State owns a 16-6 SU and 12-10 ATS record in its last 22 meetings with Minnesota but a jaw-dropping 0-3 SU and ATS record in the last three battles.

KEY ANGLES: Michigan State is a powerful 24-5 SU and 21-8 ATS at game eight or late when the Spartans are at home and matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up loss.

Minnesota now 1-16 SU and 4-12-1 ATS priced as a double digit road dog and matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss.

NOTE: Ohio State is idle this Saturday.

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