Football Totals and Coaching Philosophies

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Jim Feist - 11/6/2011 6:28 PM

by Jim Feist

There are many factors to examine when studying football totals. Defensive and offensive statistics need to be examined, of course. Some of the questions a good handicapper asks: Is there speed in the defensive secondary? Does a club have a one-dimensional offense? Do they prefer a powerful running game or wide-open passing attacks? What kind of weather conditions will there be?

Another area that is correlated to totals is coaching philosophy. Coaches build their teams around a combination of the style they want to play, plus the personnel on the field. The Ravens, for example, have had an abundance of defensive talent the last decade with limited offense talent in many of those years. That imbalance isn't necessarily a bad thing, as they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy 11 years ago, with a conservative, run-oriented offense and a sensational defense. Going back to 2009 the Ravens are on an 18-13-1 run under the total, once again with one of the top defenses in the league. When they faced Jacksonville on Monday night three weeks ago, it was a 12-7 defensive slugfest.

During their Super Bowl season, Baltimore was 13-7 "under" the total. Four years ago the Patriots had a record setting offense starting 10-2 over the total. They had an aggressive, attacking offense. However, QB Tom Brady was out in 2008 and they scaled back that offensive approach for inexperienced QB Matt Cassell. It was no surprise New England started 6-3 under the total.

Like Baltimore, the Jaguars under Jack Del Rio are another team that is making their living playing a bruising, physical defense, but is terrible offensively. The Jags are going with a rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert, so their offensive style is plodding and conservative. They started this season 7-1 under the total.

Former coaches such as Jimmy Johnson, Dick Vermeil and Bill Walsh had offensive philosophies that liked to spread the field. They were more like gunslingers in the old west, with wide-open attacks that were ready to score on every play. The Chiefs under Vermeil went 10-6 "over" the total in both 2003 and 2004.

Conversely, some coaches prefer a conservative, ball control game plan, such as the 49ers, Dolphins, Chiefs and Raiders. New San Francisco Coach Jim Harbaugh has come in and done a terrific job, essentially simplifying the offense more for QB Alex Smith. The 49ers prefer the ball-control style, particularly in a hostile environment, starting 2-1 under the total on the road, including that 25-19 win at Detroit and a 13-8 win at Cincinnati.

The Bengals have also become a conservative offense with rookie QB Andy Dalton and a vastly improved defense. That hasn't translated to a lot of their games going under the total, oddly, but that may change as the weather gets colder.

The 49ers and Bengals are examples of coaches having to adapt based on personnel. Tampa Bay has had their strength on defense rather than offensive skill position talent for much of the last decade. Coaches Jon Gruden and Raheem Morris had to scale back the offense because of injuries, youth or ineffective play by QBs Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Byron Leftwich and Josh Johnson. The Bucs were 11-5 "under" the total in 2004, 10-6 "under" in 2005 year, and 73-52 "under" the last eight+ years.

When teams with similar philosophies or strengths and weaknesses clash, the results with respect to totals can be predictable. We saw this in the opening game of the season when the Saints and Packers met, a thrilling 42-34 Green Bay win. Ball control? Forget it. New Orleans had the edge in yards 477-399 with Drew Brees throwing for 419 yards and Aaron Rodgers for 312. Both QBs combined for 6 TDs and no picks.

The Carolina Panthers were the poster child for conservative play last season, with more unders than overs during a miserable show for the offense. This season they started 5-2 over the total with two important changes. One is QB Cam Newton, who has been better than many expected, but the other is new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, who came over with the head coach from San Diego. The Chargers under Norv Turner ran an attacking style of offense and now Carolina does, a departure from the John Foz ground and pound years.

Both the Chargers and Saints have coaching staffs that prefer they uptempo, attacking style. What happened when they met in London three years ago? A 37-32 Saints' win sailed way over the total. Coaches construct their game plans around the talent on the field and try to stamp their philosophy on the team, something to keep in mind when examining football totals.

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