Public Perception and Football Wagering
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| Jack Clayton - 8/5/2012 9:31 PM |
by Jack Clayton
As the football season gets underway, it's important to understand two things: 1) Oddsmakers and handicappers have had a chance to see NFL teams in action during preseason, but college football is all about what one has read. 2) Public perception is tied into oddsmaking as much as statistics. College football early in the season is mostly about what we've read or heard about. There are written analysis and prognostications on each team, there are talking TV heads telling you what they think a team is going to do, and there are players and coaches giving opinions on their team's strengths and weaknesses. However, keep in mind that these are only opinions and assessments. We don't really know what these teams are going to do and how prepared they are to play. There's no better example than Michigan in 2007. The Wolverines were ranked No. 5 in the country with a ton of returning talent on offense. So what happens? In the first game, they lose at home to Division-II Appalachian State! No one saw this coming. And you can ignore a lot of what preseason analysis said about this team, particularly the defense. This isn't the case in pro football, or at least not to that extent. We see NFL teams play for four weeks in preseason. Granted, it's not a great look at what teams are capable of, as the starters only play sporadically and coaches go with basic game plans while assessing roster depth and young players. But there are plenty of things for a handicapper to take in. The other factor is public perception, something casual sports fans don't think much about, but oddsmakers do. Oddsmakers base their opening numbers on what the stats say PLUS what they think the general public is thinking about a game. Oddsmakers have to take into account public teams, teams that are popular. In baseball, the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees have a large national following so odds on those teams winning the World Series on future tickets are never true odds. There's no wagering value. That's because oddsmakers know yahoos of those teams are going to put down more money than most fans on their teams to win it all. In the NFL, the Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders and Cowboys have been public teams for many years. When those teams are on Monday night or at home, many times oddsmakers have to anticipate more money coming in on those teams and sometimes add a point or two to the betting line. Changes will take place much more so in September than any other month. Maybe an offensive line isn't doing the job, so a coach will shift guys around or insert some backups. Sometimes a team is missing key players because of injuries in September, then gets better. In college, other times talented freshmen and sophomores come aboard that changes the dynamics of a team. A smart bettor is able to keep abreast of subtle shifts that teams may display. As you watch games this month, remember that things change. Public perception will change after every game: Some team wins in a blowout, then the next week they may play poorly. Don't get too hung up on one strong or bad performance. That's what the general betting public does. The sharp handicapper takes a much more calm, analytical focus. |
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