#61 Toledo Rockets Preview

  #61 – Toledo Rockets 9-3 SU; 4-6-1 ATS   

 Fargo’s Take  The Rockets won nine games for the fifth time in the last six years and despite the loss of all-time passing leader Bruce Gradkowski this year, don’t feel sorry for the Rockets. As usual in Toledo, the Rockets don’t rebuild, they reload. They will be anointing a new signal caller for the third time in six years and just like those other two times, the offense won’t miss a beat as eight starters return along with some of the best depth in the conference. While the offense should be just as good as last year, the defense has the chance to be even better. Toledo allowed 21 points or less in eight of its 12 games and one of those games that it didn’t was against Northern Illinois, resulting in a loss that denied it a trip to the MAC Championship. The goal this season is to get back to the title game for the 6th time in 12 years and to try and make a return trip to the Motor City Bowl.

 Returning Starters on Offense – 8  Toledo has been a juggernaut on offense for many years and the Rockets will once again have a potent attack. They have averaged over 32 ppg in each of the last six years and despite breaking in a new quarterback, that average should continue to be strong. The rushing game was excellent, averaging 216.8 ypg, the most since the 2001 season. The loss of Trinity Dawson is huge but there is a lot of depth and if Scooter McDougle can come back from injury, it adds even more depth. The wideouts are some of the best in the MAC led by Steve Odom, who should be an All-MAC selection this season. Chris Hopkins is one of the best tight ends in the conference and with four starters returning on the offensive line, there will be no shortage of leadership. Quarterback Clint Cochran is the wild card but he completed over 74 percent of his passes last year in limited action and should excel.

 Returning Starters on Defense – 7  The Rockets defense got overshadowed by the offense last year which was unfair as they finished 27th or better in all four major defensive categories. The defensive line returns fully intact this season and the 27th ranking against the run last year could be even better. At linebacker, Mike Alston is one of the best in the MAC and his leadership will be huge in rebuilding the linebacking corps. The secondary has to replace two starters and will be very young but with a lot of MAC teams breaking in new quarterbacks, it won’t be as bad as in normal years. Toledo decreased its points allowed by close to 10 ppg from 2004 and it should once again be in the same range this season. The Rockets were the top ranked defense in the MAC last season and there is no reason to believe that it won’t happen again.

 Schedule  Toledo played the 6th easiest schedule in the country last season and while this year will see a tougher slate, it isn’t overly difficult. Three of the Rockets four non-conference games are against BSC conference teams Iowa St., Pittsburgh and Kansas with the first two games coming on the road. The other out of conference game is a home contest against McNeese St. The conference schedule is very doable with the toughest road game being at Northern Illinois. The other three against Western Michigan, Kent St. and Eastern Michigan should all be won. The best break on the home schedule is getting Akron at the Glass Bowl along with catching a rebuilding Bowling Green team there as well. Three of the last four games are at home, definitely helping a team that is breaking in a new quarterback.

 You can bet on…  The only reason the Rockets are ranked behind the Huskies in the MAC West is because of the quarterback experience and the fact that Toledo has to play at Northern Illinois this season. Last season, the Huskies thumped Toledo at home so the Rockets will be out for some revenge. The first home game is against Kansas, a team that the Rockets also want revenge against after a 49-point loss two years ago. Toledo has lost only twice at home over the last six years, going 32-2 over that span. That includes a 21-8 mark against the number and a 4-0 ATS record as a home underdog. The Rockets will likely be a small favorite against the Jayhawks and will come into that one with a lot going their way.

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