The Value of Run Defense

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Jim Feist - 10/14/2012 4:59 PM

by Jim Feist

Like a leak on a sinking ship, one of the first signs of a poor pro football team is weak run defense. Stopping the run is essential to building a championship team. The Top 6 teams at stopping the run last season? 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Texans, Bears and Falcons. Four of those six made the playoffs and two made it to the conference championship games. Great run defense was the key reason the 49ers had their remarkable turnaround. Two years ago the Steelers, Bears, Jets, Chargers, Ravens were in the Top 8 - all playoff teams except one, and three met in the AFC/NFC Champion games. The Steelers were tops in run defense last season on their way to winning the AFC and another Super Bowl berth. Who won the Super Bowl after the 2008 campaign? Those same Steelers, a team with the No. 1 overall defense, including No. 2 against the run. In 2007, the eventual champion NY Giants were No. 8 against the run when they stunned the Patriots.

In 2005, the Carolina Panthers were 4th in the league at stopping the run behind its fearsome front foursome. They made it to the NFC Championship game. The team just ahead of the Panthers was the Steelers, who won the Super Bowl. In 2003 the Patriots finished No. 3 against the run with the addition of NT Ted Washington. In 2004 they let Washington walk, but added Keith Traylor and rookie Vince Wilfork to the line and finished No. 6 overall against the run. Both those teams won the Super Bowl.

Back in 2001 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the No. 1 overall defense, a solid 6th against the run and celebrated a title. Stopping the run in some capacity is essential for success in football. Think about how many third and short situations you see over the course of a game. If a team can't stop the run, opponents can simply run the ball all day long, picking up first downs and controlling the clock. After five games in 2012, here's a list of pro teams allowing the most yards rushing per game:

Yds rushing allowed - SU - ATS 26th Browns - 141 -- 0-5 -- 2-2-1
27th: Falcons - 142 -- 5-0 -- 4-1
28th: Titans - 144 -- 1-4 -- 1-4
29th: Jaguars - 163 -- 1-4 -- 2-3
30th: Bills - 171 -- 2-3 -- 2-3
31st: Jets - 172 -- 2-2 -- 2-2
32nd: Saints - 172 -- 1-4 -- 2-3

Outside of the Falcons, not a lot of wins, are there? The combined mark is 12-22 straight up and 15-18-1 against the number. All the money the Bills spent in the offseason hasn't helped up front, a big part of their problems. Two weeks ago they led the Patriots at home, 21-7, but New England kept running right at Buffalo and ended up with a pair of backs topping 100 yards and a 52-28 comeback rout.

This is nothing new, either, as two years ago was the first time in Bills history they allowed 30 points in four straight games. The problems with the rebuilding Bucs can be easily attributed to their awful run defense, the worst in the league.

For perspective, let's look back one year ago at the same time in the season:

Yds rushing allowed - SU - ATS
26th NY Jets - 134 -- 2-3 -- 1-3-1
27th: Panthers - 135 -- 1-4 -- 5-0
28th: Bears - 135 -- 2-3 -- 1-4
29th: Bills - 138 -- 4-1 -- 3-2
30th: Eagles - 140 -- 1-4 -- 1-4
31st: Colts - 145 -- 0-5 -- 2-3
32nd: Rams - 179 -- 0-4 -- 0-4

Not a lot of wins there, either! The Jets and Bears, who were expected to be better, and the biggest disappointment of the season was the Eagles. The combined mark was 10-24 straight up and 13-20-1 against the number.

In 2009 it was even more stark, with four teams Redskins, Texans, Bills, Panthers) the biggest busts early in the season. The combined record of that defenseless group against the run to start the year was 13-39 straight up and 16-36 against the number.

Go back to 2008, the worst teams against the run were the Lions, Raiders, Chiefs, Rams, Browns, Broncos, Packers, Falcons, Colts, Texans, Bills and Bengals. What stood out? Only two playoff teams, but not a single postseason victory among the group.

It is more important to stop the run first. That is why talented run stuffers are in high demand, such as nose tackles Casey Hampton, Vince Wilfork and Haloti Ngata. Run defense is an excellent place to start when examining strengths and weaknesses each week, and for potential future bets as history has not been kind to teams that are not stout against the run in the postseason.

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