by Jim Feist
In the world of eleven to ten,
there's nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it's two
weeks, as the teams have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It's
also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While
there's only one game left on the football calendar, there are still
ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by
various oddsmakers.
For example, you can bet on the exact
score of the game by each team, who will score first, or how many yards a
player has. A year ago Seattle to win by 22 or more points was 12-to-1
odds and the first scoring play to be a safety was 35-to-1. Both
cashed. Total combined QB sacks was projected at over/under 4.5....and
would you believe there was only 1 sack (Manning) in the Super Bowl?
Two years ago passing yards by Joe Flacco was set at 247½ (he threw for
287). Three years ago QB Tom Brady was projected over/under 300 yards
and 2.5 TDs (he finished with 276 yards, 2 TDs, going under for both).
Four years ago, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers' TD passes was over/under 2
(he threw 3 against Pittsburgh). His first pass to be incomplete was
+210 (it was). Eight Super Bowls ago, if you bet on Chicago return
specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game you
would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening
kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way
to watch a Super Bowl!
You can wager that no TDs will be
scored by either team, often at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never
happened as we head to Super Bowl 49 next week. There also has never
been overtime, though you will be able to wager on "Will there be
overtime or not?" There will be "over/under" lines offered on how many
touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the
ball over and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered
such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against
the number of points the NBA's Kobe Bryant might have as the
Lakers/Knicks battle before the Super Sunday kickoff (if anyone watches
those bottom dwellers). The Super Bowl brings out the best in the
creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the
props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and
add to their bankrolls. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers
and Cowboys, there have been 23 "overs" and 16 "unders." Why so
many "overs?" One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to
sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0
at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined
to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason,
it's the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to
play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0
lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it's the last game of the
season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in
an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities. Despite the
excessive "overs" you can't overlook the importance of defense. The
Seahawks stormed to the title with incredible defense a year ago despite
being a Super Bowl underdog to the record-setting Denver offense. Three
years ago the Saints and Packers didn't win a playoff game despite all
those flashy offensive numbers, while the defensive-oriented Giants,
49ers and Ravens made it to the Final Four. In 2008 and 2012
the big story was the flashy offense of the Patriots as a favorite each
time, but who came out ahead? The great defense of the Giants kept the
game close and was the main reason in their 17-14 and 21-17 victories.
12 years ago the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa
Bay)? Oakland's great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa's
defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, 8 of the last 14 Super Bowl
champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses,
including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense) and 2008 Steelers (No. 1).
Four of those champs, the 2001 Patriots, the '02 Buccaneers, the '07
Giants and last year's Seahawks, were Super Bowl underdogs.
Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of
getting middled. 14 years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7½-point favorite
against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous
example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as "Black Sunday." The
Steelers opened a 2½-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5,
then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won,
35-31, landing on the dreaded 'M' word. Super Bowl Total Over/Under 48 Seahawks 43, Broncos 8 47- Over 47 Ravens 34, 49ers 31 47- Over 46 Giants 21, Patriots 17 51 Under 45 Packers 31, Steelers 25 46 Over 44 Saints 31, Colts 17 56 Under 43 Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 47 Over 42 Giants 17, Patriots 14 52 Under 41 Colts 29, Bears 17 49 Under 40 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 48 Under 39 Patriots 24, Eagles 21 47 Under 38 Patriots 32, Panthers 29 38 Over 37 Bucs 48, Raiders 21 43- Over 36 Patriots 20, Rams 17 53 Under 35 Ravens 34, Giants 7 33 Over 34 Rams 23, Titans 16 48 Under 33 Broncos 34, Falcons 19 51 Over 32 Broncos 31, Packers 24 49 Over 31 Packers 35, Patriots 21 52 Over 30 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 52 Under 29 49ers 49, Chargers 26 53 Over 28 Cowboys 30, Bills 13 50 Under 27 Cowboys 52, Bills 17 44- Over 26 Redskins 37, Bills 24 49 Over 25 Giants 20, Bills 19 40- Under 24 49ers 55, Broncos 10 48 Over 23 49ers 20, Bengals 16 48 Under 22 Redskins 42, Broncos 10 47 Over 21 Giants 39, Broncos 20 40 Over 20 Bears 46, Patriots 10 37- Over 19 49ers 39, Dolphins 16 53- Over 18 Raiders 38, Redskins 9 48 Under 17 Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 36- Over 16 49ers 26, Bengals 21 48 Under 15 Raiders 27, Eagles 10 37- Under 14 Steelers 31, Rams 19 36 Over 13 Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 37 Over 12 Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 39 Under 11 Raiders 32, Vikings 14 38 Over 10 Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 36 Over 9 Steelers 16, Vikings 6 33 Under 8 Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 33 Under 7 Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 33 Under 6 Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 34 Under 5 Colts 16, Cowboys 13 36 Under 4 Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 39 Under 3 Jets 16, Colts 7 40 Under 2 Packers 33, Raiders 14 40 Over 1 Packers 35, KC 13 NL NL
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