Turnovers: Nothing Else Matters

Truthfully the words in this title might be a little too strong. However, I have honestly had many weekends where, when it’s all said and done, I am left scratching my head and muttering those words. The fact is football is so impacted by turnovers that there are many times that they dictate the outcome of a game more than anything else! The weekend of November 18th and 19th is what prompted me to write this article. Keep in mind though that the weekend results are just one example and the advice I am about to give you is something you should always keep in mind.

Whether you are a self handicapper or you buy someone else’s advice on football games it is best to never be too quick to judge. If you are, you will be too hard...either on yourself or your advisor. Whether you’re winning or losing be sure you look at the box scores and understand why you came out top or why you fell short? Did your team dominate or were they dominated? Did your team win because of turnovers or lose because of turnovers or did turnovers have nothing to do with it? This is very important because, as a professional handicapper, I can tell you that predicting turnovers is very difficult! This means that many times you can correctly predict who will dominate a game but you still may lose if a few bounces of the ball go against your team. Just keep this in mind because maybe your hot streak is due to hard work or maybe it’s due to lucky breaks. Likewise, maybe a losing streak is due to poor selections or maybe it’s truly due to bad breaks. Knowing these facts will help you better evaluate your own selections or that of the professional handicapper of your choice.

Taking a look at the weekend of November 18th and 19th my sports service, as usual, released four plays on Saturday and three plays on Sunday. On Saturday I had a great call with Iowa State as a two TD dog as their stats ended up nearly equal with those of Missouri and they got the outright win as a big dog. That was a deserved win. My other win was on Boston College. Honestly I had some good fortune there as the Eagles were an 8 point favorite that only out gained Maryland by 42 yards. Certainly the four Terrapins turnovers were a key help in that win. However, my two losses Saturday certainly fell into the ‘unlucky’ category. I had Ohio State and most of you know the stupid fashion in which that game ended but did you also know that the Buckeyes out gained the Wolverines by more than 100 yards! Without a doubt, the 3 Buckeyes turnovers were the difference in that game as my TD favorite Ohio State only won by a Field Goal. Definite bad beat there. Then my other play was California who actually led USC at the half but three turnovers with sloppy play in the second half ended up making all the difference in the world. That’s how you can quickly lose a game by two TD’s even though you’re out gained by less than a hundred yards. As you can see my college plays had a solid win on Iowa State and then three games where turnovers were key. I had a 4 to 0 turnover advantage in my win and a 3 to 0 turnover deficit in each of my losses. That’s how the ball bounces sometimes.

Taking a look at Sunday’s NFL I had a win in the night game on San Diego where the Chargers roared back but turnovers really did not play a key role in that game. The Chargers had a key turnover and so did the Broncos so that game evened out with regard to the impact of turnovers. As for my other two games though I was left with a sickening feeling in my stomach as the usually reliable Colts turned the ball over 4 times. Peyton Manning threw two INT’s and one was even returned for a Cowboys TD and the other prevented points on the board as it occurred in the red zone. This is why the Colts lost by a TD despite the stats being equal in this game. My other play was the toughest break of all. The Saints gained nearly 600 yards of offense versus Cincinnati. However, they turned the ball over four times and this impacted their scoring very significantly! This is why New Orleans lost by more than two TD’s even though they out gained the Bengals by more than 200 yards!

How can all of the above help you? In more ways than one! First off, it definitely helps you better evaluate your own plays and/or the plays you purchase from a professional handicapper. This is a great tool to use for yourself after every weekend of football. The other key way this helps you is to look for opportunities in the coming weekend. That’s because lines are based on public sentiment and many times public sentiment is based solely on the final scores from the prior week. This means that if you factor in the statistics behind the scores you can often find misleading final scores and grab line value in the coming week. You can do this week after week and season after season and don’t ever forget the true value in box scores. Best of luck always from Scott Rickenbach and Jay Brazeau at Players Advantage, Inc.

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