NCAA Pre-Season Top 20 Preview 1-5

College football is right around the corner. Are you ready? In this four part series we will break down how each of the pre-season top 20 teams has performed against the number, since 2003. Is USC a smart play as a home favorite? How does Michigan do as a road dog? In part one of this series we will answer those question and many more, as we review the pre-season top 5. Be sure to check back next week as we look at the schools ranked 6 through 10 this pre-season.  

1. USC

After a two year hiatus from the BCS title game the Trojans look like the team to beat once again. We all know USC racks up the wins, 48-4 SU over the last four seasons, but how do they do against the number? Overall, since 2003, they have a 32-20 ATS mark for 62 percent. They’ve been a road dog two times during that span, once in 2003 and once in 2006, covering the spread both times. As a road favorite since 2003 they are 12-13 ATS and as a home favorite they are 18-7 ATS for 72 percent. Although the Trojans may look like a safe bet as a home favorite it’s important to point out they’re only 7-5 ATS in this situation over the last two seasons. In conference action they’ve posted an 18-15 ATS mark over the last four seasons.  The line on USC is usually so high they are a tough play, but if you have to play them only do it as home favorites.

2. LSU

In two seasons as head coach Les Miles has directed the Tigers to consecutive 11-2 campaigns. With the departure of JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 selection in this year’s NFL draft, LSU will depend on senior quarterback Matt Flynn along with six offensive, and eight defensive returning starters. The Tigers are 44-8 SU and 29-18-5 ATS over the past four seasons. As a home favorite they are 13-11-1 ATS during that time frame, and they covered on the only occasion they were a home dog. On the road they are 4-3 ATS as a dog and 11-3-2 ATS for 73 percent as a favorite since 2003. In conference action they are an average 17-15-2 ATS. When playing LSU you only want them as road favorites.

3. Florida

Florida is the defending champs. Urban Meyer is in his third season as a head coach for the first time. Yep, that’s right; he has never gone more than two seasons at any school. So how will they fare this season? Well, Tim Tebow is now the starting quarterback, they only have two returning starters on defense and the whole country wants their shot at the champs. It could be a tough season for the Gators. As good as they are on the field; Florida is not a great bet. They are 36-14 SU and 22-24-3 ATS since 2003. As a favorite they have a dismal 11-10-1 ATS mark at home and 3-12-1 ATS tally on the road. As a dog they are 0-1 ATS at home and 8-1-1 ATS for 89 percent on the road. In the SEC the Gators are a disappointing 11-19-3 ATS. If you have to play Florida play them as a road dog only.

4. Texas

Mack Brown has put together nine straight seasons of nine plus wins. He has won three consecutive bowl games including the national championship two seasons ago. With six returning starters on both offense and defense and super sophomore quarterback Colt McCoy a fourth consecutive bowl victory should be assured. Since the 2003 season the Longhorns have amassed a 44-7 SU and 29-21 ATS record. But do all those wins indicate a safe bet? Not really. As favorites Texas has a 15-9 ATS for 63 percent mark at home and an 11-10 ATS road record over the last four seasons. As a dog the Longhorns have posted a 3-2 ATS mark on the road since 2003. They haven’t been a home dog in that span. Texas is not a good bet but, even in conference play with a 19-14 ATS mark, but if you must play on them, do it only when they are a home favorite.

5. Michigan

Talk about a squad with a chip on their shoulder. The Wolverines are out for blood! If not for fellow Big 10 coaches BCS voting against them last season, Illinois Ron Zook voting for Florida and Ohio States Jim Tressel not voting, Michigan would have been in the championship. You can be sure they are looking forward to meeting those two on the field this year. Over the last four years Michigan has put up an impressive 37-13 SU mark but they’ve come up short against the number with a 26-23-1 ATS record. At home the Wolverines are 12-13-1 ATS as a favorite and 0-1 ATS as a dog. Things don’t get much better on the road with a 6-1 ATS for 86 percent mark as a dog and 8-8 ATS record as a favorite. I the Big 10 Michigan is a mediocre 19-12-1 ATS. Lloyd knows how to win but he could care less about the number. In thirteen seasons he is 113-36 SU and 69-77-2 ATS. The only time I would consider playing Michigan is as a road dog. They love their upsets!

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