Labor Day, 2004: Observations as Preseason Ends

Labor Day, 2004: Observations as Preseason Ends
by Bryan Leonard

Perhaps you’ve heard it mentioned more than once that a year ago Carolina and New England went a combined 8-0 in preseason, then went on to meet in the Super Bowl. The intimation is that teams that have a winning preseason are more keyed for success once the regular season starts. This is baloney. The 1981 New England Patriots were the only undefeated team in preseason that August…then proceeded to go 2-14, the worst record in the NFL. And there are countless more examples over the years.

Overall, preseason doesn’t give you a good indication of what to expect once the regular season begins. Coaches are more concerned with staying healthy and finding out which players to cut to improve depth. They care far less about looking for polished play from the offense and aggressive play from the defense. But there are subtle things that handicappers look for that can help when examining regular season games. Here are some betting observations from preseason and how they might come into play when the regular season kicks off this weekend.

Bears: This might be a good team to look at under the total. New coach Lovie Smith is a former defensive coordinator. His teams displayed outstanding defensive depth during preseason and a poor offense. In truth, the offense is a work in progress under young QB Rex Grossman. They traded WR Marty Booker to the Dolphins and got even better on defense in the process, while getting more inexperienced offensively. The plodding offense and tough defense is a similar formula that John Fox has used at Carolina the last two seasons and they’ve been a strong under team.

Cardinals: Arizona was banged up badly on offense during preseason, losing a ton of skill position talent to various injuries, including rookie WR Larry Fitzgerald, the No. 3 pick in the NFL draft. They stumbled badly offensively most of the time. However, they might not be as pitiful offensively, as several key players are set to return in time for opening day. This is not a team that’s going to make the playoffs, but they might not be as bad offensively as they looked much of August, either. Remember, Arizona was 6-2 SU/ATS at home last season.

Raiders: Oakland appears to be a team to look at over the total. New coach Norv Turner is not a great NFL coach, but he’s capable. A former offensive coordinator, Turner has plenty of offensive weapons to work with on this team, including two veteran QBs in Rich Gannon and Kerry Collins. But the defense looked very poor at times during preseason, especially on third down. Keep an eye on the Raiders defense in September – if they continue to allow big plays and a lot of yards, Oakland might be worth a look over the total more often than not.

Miami: If you’re a fan of Dolphins coach Dave Wannstedt, you better videotape his games because he won’t be around next season. He might not even survive the full 16 games. The Dolphins have underachieved the last few years and this is shaping up as the Year of the Witch for Miami. RB Ricky Williams jilted the team and key offseason acquisition WR David Boston won’t play a down after an August injury. They were already a below-average offense with those guys, now what? With a strong defense, this is another team that is still worth a look under the total in certain situations. Miami was 10-6 under last season and 11-5 under in 2002.

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