Florida St at Clemson FREE Game Preview!!!
 Back to Article Listing
|
| Triple Threat Sports - 9/3/2007 5:00 AM |
|
Florida State at Clemson Most folks taking Clemson will be focusing on the recent series domination and the fact they are at home. On the surface that is true, as a team getting points that dominated last year's game much more than the score showed (345-204 yard edge, four more FD's) is an attractive dog. That is especially true since in that game FSU scored nine points directly off of special teams mistakes. Also, consider that not only is CU 5-0 ATS as a home dog of late but they have also won all five of those games outright! The other angle many will cite is that the home team is 9-2-1 ATS in this series. All of that is true...HOWEVER, to blindly take CU based on the above would not be putting the fundamentals of the matchup in proper perspective, as a look at the talent level and the matchups point strongly towards Florida State. Overall our off season rating of the Noles was +4.5 and our off season rating for Clemson was -2.0. Over the last five years playing ON teams with a +/- difference of more than six points in the opening three weeks of the season has led to a winning percentage of 65%, and those and those ratings were a big reason we started the college football season with a 5-2 record on Saturday, and we were a misleading tough loss (Illinois) away from 6-1!l. FSU has excellent LB's and DB's, exactly the two positions that are needed to defend the CU offense well. Last year new Clemson QB Harper had good stats but they came in garbage time against four scrub teams; here he is taking on FSU on national TV, and he will be in for a rude awakening. The thought that CU might struggle offensively, FSU's strong defensive matchup, the combined 26 overall stats in last year's game, and the generally held belief that FSU's offense is no good will point many to the Under. HOWEVER, note that four of the last five in this series have gone Over the total, the new rules changes favor the over, and that - counting the bowl game when FSU scored 44 against an UCLA defense that had just shut down USC - the Noles averaged 28.6ppg in their last five games last year. Overall, with great reasons to take either team or either total, there is not one prevailing factor that dictates a play, so we are going to pass, even though it would be pretty easy to try and build on our 5-2 Saturday and put a play up there and hope for the best. We will close with a lesson we learned from a smart handicapper many years ago: "Just because there is a game, and it is on TV, does not mean you have to play!" We will be back with more college winners all season long, and as we hope this article shows, when we pass there is very good reason, and when we play there are even BETTER ones! Have a Safe And Happy Labor Day! |
|
Back to Article Listing |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
