Strykers Big 10 Preview - Saturday, October 23rd

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Tom Stryker - 10/22/2010 11:02 AM

After some surprising twists and turns in Big Ten football the last couple of weeks, no one expects anything less this weekend, when five games are likely to shed some more light on how crowded the top of the conference standings will be a month from now.

Wisconsin’s spanking of then-No. 1 Ohio State leaves only three unbeatens in league play – Iowa, Michigan State and Purdue (yes, Purdue).

All three face rugged tests this week. So let’s look at this week’s action:

Wisconsin at IOWA

After a disappointing loss to Arizona, Iowa quickly regained the national eye by climbing to 5-1, 3-0. Ranked No. 12, the Hawkeyes host the Badgers, (6-1, 2-1), a team that really needs to regain focus for this Saturday after the huge triumph at home last Saturday against Ohio State.

The Hawkeyes are 6th in the nation in scoring defense (13.2) and 7th in the nation in rushing defense (83.8), and they will need all the D they can muster when the Badgers come calling. John Clay and James White, the Badgers talented backfield duo, are the most prolific tandem in the nation, having gained a combined 1,356 rushing yards in seven games. Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema likes the run, but in Scott Tolzien, he has a quarterback who can hurt defenses as well. Tolzien is 16-4 as a starter and his 148.1 passing rating is the highest in school history.

Kirk Ferentz counters with Ricky Stanzi, the Big Ten offensive player of the week. Stanzi is 99-145 for 13 TDs and 1,474 yards. His 180.49 efficiency rating is 3rd best in the nation. Iowa later in the season still has to face Ohio State and Michigan State – so a loss here could be pivotal in Hawkeye hopes for a title. Similarly, the Badgers know that two league losses are not likely to stand up when the fall wars are over.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Iowa 20-7-1 SU and 17-11 ATS L28 vs Wisconsin including 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

KEY ANGLES: Iowa 36-12-1 SU and 30-18-1 ATS as a Big 10 host checking in with momentum off a SU and ATS win. In this role facing a foe that arrives off a SU and ATS win, the Hawkeyes improve to a profitable 15-4-1 ATS.

Wisconsin is10-29 SU and 13-23-3 ATS as a conference guest tackling an opponent that enters off a SU and ATS victory.

Penn St at MINNESOTA

Maybe this should be called the disappointment bowl. Penn State is an uncharacteristic 3-3, 0-2, while Minnesota is 1-6, 0-3. The dismal start cost Tim Brewster his head coaching job last Sunday. Former offensive coordinator Jeff Horton will lead Minnesota the rest of this season. Saturday’s loser stays in the Big Ten cellar.

Penn State’s troubles rest with the offense. Coach Joe Paterno, who is having trouble recruiting because of his age and questions about how long he will remain, knows his team only averages 126 rushing yards. And with quarterback Rob Bolden struggling (only 4 TDs with 7 interceptions), there is too much of a burden on the Nittany Lions defense. PSU has lost safety Jeff Sukay for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

Quarterback Adam Weber is one of the lone bright spots for the Gophers, whose defense is giving up 31.7 points each game. Weber needs only 100 yards passing to become the 5th quarterback in Big Ten history to pass for more than 10,000 yards.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS L11 vs Minnesota including a dismal 0-4 ATS in this role provided the Golden Gophers enter off a SU loss.

KEY ANGLES: Minnesota 24-10 SU and 23-8 ATS L34 facing an opponent that arrives off a blowout loss of 14 points or more including 11-2 ATS in its own backyard in this role.

Penn State 18-6 ATS priced as a road favorite of -8.5 or more matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .450.

Purdue at OHIO ST
How angry are the 6-1, 2-1 Buckeyes? The surprising Boilermakers (4-2, 2-0) may find out Saturday.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Rob Henry has transformed Danny Hope’s team from a pass-first to a run-first offensive unit. Henry ran for three TDs and passed for another in a victory over Minnesota last Saturday. Purdue upset Ohio State a year ago, and will need a similar effort Saturday to stay in the league hunt. The Boilers still have Penn State, Iowa and Michigan remaining before ending the season with in-state rival Indiana.

Ohio State and Jim Tressel are anxious to remove the bad taste from last week’s upset loss at Wisconsin. And quarterback Terrelle Pryor could be at his best against the Boilers. Pryor needs only 90 passing yards to reach 5,000.   The Bucks still lead the conference in scoring at 39.6 points per game, and continue to lead in total defense, allowing only 251.1 yards.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE:   Ohio State 18-5 SU and 12-11 ATS L33 vs Purdue including a soft 2-5 ATS in this role if the Boilermakers enter off a SU and ATS win.

KEY ANGLES:   Ohio State 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss including 19-4 SU and 17-5-1 ATS in this role matched up against a Big 10 foe. Buckeyes also are 8-0 ATS in their last eight when playing with revenge.

Purdue 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS on foreign soil tackling a winning team that checks in off a SU and ATS loss.

Michigan St at NORTHWESTERN

What’s this? Michigan State is the team to beat in the Big Ten? That could be the case after the Spartans already own wins over Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois. The Spartans are 7-0 and atop the Big Ten with a 3-0 record.

Ranked No. 8, Michigan State’s defense has held five opponents to 17 points or fewer – and it will take a solid defensive effort to slow Northwestern’s Dan Persa, who has completed 75% of his passes this fall.
The Spartans feature great balance offensively. Sophomore Edwin Baker rushes at a 100.9-yard clip, while freshman Leveon Bell adds 80.3 more yards per game. Junior quarterback Kirk Cousins continues to impress and mature. He has thrown for 1,289 yards and 9 TDs.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats (5-1, 1-1) were idle a week ago after being upset at home the previous Saturday by Purdue. Persa’s 173.3 passer rating is 4th among all FBS schools. His favorite receiver is wideout Jeremy Ebert who has 35 receptions for 560 yards and 5 TDs.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Michigan State 18-8 SU and 12-14 ATS L 26 vs Northwestern including 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS in this role provided the Spartans enter off a momentum-building SU win.

KEY ANGLES: Northwestern is 25-83 SU and 39-69 ATS L108 battling an opponent that checks in off a SU and ATS win.

Michigan St 38-23-1 ATS as a guest checking in with momentum off a SU and ATS win including 25-11 ATS in this role if the Spartans opponent is a winning team.

Indiana at ILLINOIS

Coach Ron Zook’s Illini (3-3, 1-2) have been beaten by Ohio State and Michigan State in league play. At first glance, the visiting Hoosiers are easy prey. But Zook is effusive in his praise of Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell, who is throwing for 309.7 yards an outing, while completing 16 TD passes in six games.

But Indiana’s defense is porous, as narrow 36-34 victory last Saturday over lowly Arkansas State indicates. Illinois only allows 113 yards on the ground and 200 through the air – and those numbers will be needed by the Illini on Saturday.   Through this point of the season, Illinois schedule has been rated the second toughest in the country. Illinois’ first six opponents are a combined 26-7.

SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Illinois 18-8 SU and 15-11 ATS L26 vs Indiana including an undefeated 8-0 SU and ATS if the Hoosiers arrive off a straight up victory.

KEY ANGLES:   Illinois 28-7 SU and 21-14 ATS L35 priced as a Big 10 favorite facing an opponent that enters off a straight up win including 27-3 SU and 20-10 ATS in this role if the Illini are a winning team.

Indiana 5-42 SU and 15-31-1 ATS L47 as a conference guest including a shocking 1-15 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in this role if the Big 10 scoot in off a SU win.

NOTE: Michigan, after consecutive losses to Michigan State and Iowa, is idle this Saturday.

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