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Through the first three AP Top 25 polls of the season there have been plenty of changes at the top. USC and LSU have remained No. 1 and 2, but the Trojans have seen their first place vote’s drop from 62 to 40. West Virginia held on to the third spot until this week, dropping to No. 4 behind Oklahoma. The Sooners started the season at No. 8, and now sit at No. 3 after two impressive performances. The Gators have seen the most movement starting the season No. 6, then jumping to No. 3, only to fall back to No. 5 in the latest poll. Will things finally settle down at the top, or will one of the big boys get knocked off this weekend? Let’s take a look!
1. USC
After a mediocre, by their standards, 38-10 victory over Idaho, the Trojans had a week off to prepare for Saturday’s contest against Nebraska. With No. 2 LSU dominating Virginia Tech, the Trojans can’t afford another sub par performance or they may find themselves looking up from the No. 2 spot. USC continues to win, 46-4 SU last 50, including a 18-8-1 SU mark in road openers. The Trojans dominate ATS in road openers with a 10-2 ATS mark in their last 12 including six straight SU/ATS. Last season USC held off the Cornhuskers 28-10 as 17 point favorites at home. With two weeks to prepare and LSU closing fast the men of Troy will make a statement today. Lay the points in this one.
2. LSU
Sure they beat Mississippi State 45-0, but everyone was still asking, how good are the Tigers really. Well, their 48-7 pounding of then No. 9 Virginia Tech should put all your doubts to rest. In two games this season the Tigers have outscored their opponents 93-7 and forced eight turnovers. The LSU offense has been impressive with 945 yards total offense, 12 touchdowns and 46 first downs, 25 through the air. Middle Tennessee State is in trouble. The Tigers are impressive as huge favorites posting an 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS mark as a favorite of -30 or more, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of -40 or more. MTS is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five. This one doesn’t seem fair. Lay the lumber if you must!
3. Oklahoma
Wow, 79-10 over North Texas and 51-13 over Miami (FL) to start the season. That’s a combined 130-23, a 107 point differential. With 0-2 Utah St Aggies on deck you just know Bob Stoops is salivating! Those numbers will only improve, and improve dramatically on Saturday. The Sooners are looking like title contenders at 11-3-1 ATS and 12-3 SU in their last 15. Oklahoma is 6-0 SU/ATS in their last six at home and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight as DD home favorites. The Aggies are a dismal 2-18 SU, 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20. In their last seven they are 0-7 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in lined games. USC and LSU better watch out. One slip and the Sooners will be right there to jump into the top spot. If you like huge favorites have fun with this one; it will be over at the half.
4. West Virginia
All they have done to start the season is win two games by an average of 55 points. They topped W Michigan 62-24 in week one, then defeated Marshall 48-23 last week. That said, the Mountaineers still dropped a spot in the polls from three to four. Last season, a 28 point first quarter propelled W Virginia to a 45-27 pounding of the Terrapins. In their last three meetings W Virginia holds a 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS advantage. The Mountaineers have been solid both SU 20-2 last 22 and ATS 14-6-1 last 21 lined. Those numbers improve to 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. As double digit road favorites W Virginia is 28-0 SU in their last 28, and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine. On the other side of the ball Maryland has struggled. As double digit home dogs the Terps are 2-16 SU in their last 18, and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 including a 1-6 ATS run in their last seven. The writing is on the wall! Maryland won’t be able to match the Terrapins point output in this one. The offense simply isn’t that good.
5. Florida
What do the defending national champions do for an encore? Wipeout W Kentucky 49-3 then takes care of Troy 59-31. However a late letdown against Troy did cost the Gators a spot in the polls as they fell from four to five. Their first test of the season is this Saturday when No. 22 Tennessee comes to town. The Vols rebounded nicely from an opening 31-45 loss on the road at No. 12 Cal to defeat Southern Miss 39-19 at home. Although the Gators hold a 7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS edge in head-to-head competition against the Vols when in Gainesville, Tennessee is 2-1 SU/ATS in their last three meetings. Food for thought; Urban Meyer is 2-0 against Tennessee, and no Florida coach has ever won his first three in a row against the Vols… the team with the most rushing yards has won 15 of the last 17 in this series. Tennessee averages 152 YR on the season, while the Gators have a 264 YR average. This one just may be to close to call. Close you wallet, turn on the TV, sit back and get ready for an exciting ball game.
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