|6/11/2021 - NBA||LOSER|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns swept the first two games of this series to take a 2-0 lead. But those two games were in Phoenix, where the Suns have gone 31-10 SU, 27-14 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 4.02 ppg. On the road, Phoenix has been less successful, as it's failed to cover the spread by an average of 0.5 ppg. Denver, meanwhile, covers the spread at home by an average of 1.34 ppg. We'll take the Nuggets in this Game 3, as they've been terrific at home off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and especially when priced from +1.5 to -4.5 points, as they're 19-3 ATS their last 22. Even better: Denver lost the first two games 122-105 and 123-98. But NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses that gave up more than 120 points in each game, have cashed 64% since 1990. This is a virtual 'must-win' game for Mike Malone's men. Lay the small number. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|6/11/2021 - MLB||WINNER|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota
Twins. Bailey Ober will now get the start for Minnesota, and Ober has
not impressed in his young career, thus far. He's made two starts this
season, and has given up 5 runs in 8 innings (5.62 ERA), with a 1.37
WHIP. Ober will face the Astros, who upset the Twins in last year's
playoffs. Houston will hand the ball to RHP Jose Urquidy, who also
stumbled in his last start (six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Toronto). But
Houston won each of Urquidy's five starts prior to that outing. And
Urquidy's career ERA vs. Minnesota is 2.08, with a WHIP of 0.92. Even
better: the Astros have scored 7, 8, and 8 runs in each of their last
three games. And they're 32-8 on the road after scoring 7+ runs in each
of their three previous games. Take the Astros. Good luck, as
|6/11/2021 - MLB||WINNER|
At 7:10 pm,
our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. Ross
Stripling followed up an All Star season in 2018 with another solid
campaign in 2019 (4-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 games including 15 starts).
Despite that success, Stripling was still relegated to a part time role
in the rotation for the Dodgers. Then in 2020 after struggling through
the first few months, the Dodgers traded the 30-year-old right-hander
to Toronto for players named later. Stripling has continued to struggle
with the Jays, which is not surprising considering he's in the American
League now and not pitching his home games in Dodger Stadium anymore.
He'll have to face a very good offense in the Red Sox tonight and in
four previous starts against them, Stripling has been knocked around
pretty good, going 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Garrett Richards
(4-4 with a 3.88 ERA in 65 innings) will get his 13th start for the Sox
tonight, and he's been fairly consistent of late. In his last eight starts, he's allowed three earned runs (or less) in seven of them. Richards also excels in his nighttime starts, as his teams are 63-42 (+17 games on the moneyline) in his career (compared to 14-21, minus 13 games on the moneyline in daytime starts). These two pitchers actually faced off against each other last month, and Richards notched his 4th win of the season, in a 7-3 BoSox victory. Finally, the Red Sox are 15-6 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last
21 games vs. Division opponents. Take Boston. As always, good
|6/10/2021 - NBA||LOSER|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Utah. The Jazz drew first blood in this series with a three-point win in Game 1. But off that loss, we'll step in and take the points with the underdog Clippers. It's true that the Jazz rolled to the best record in the league this year, and are 34-6 at home. But consider that #1 seeds are a poor 58-91 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs when they lead in a series against a .600 (or better) opponent. Even better: the Clippers are 23-10 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 11-1 ATS if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 4 points or less. And Los Angeles is an awesome 39-14 ATS off exactly one loss. Take L.A. + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|6/10/2021 - MLB||WINNER|
At 8:10 pm,
our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.
LHP Dallas Keuchel is proof that you can continue to have a productive
career as an MLB pitcher after your years as a strikeout artist are
over. Keuchel used to punch out close to a batter per inning but those
days are behind him now and the 33-year-old southpaw is having to
re-invent himself in his second season with the White Sox. So far, it
appears to be working as Keuchel is 4-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in
12 starts covering just under 66 innings. The good news for Keuchel
tonight is that his record against the Blue Jays is unblemished. In six
starts covering just under 38 innings, Keuchel is 4-0 vs. Toronto. The
White Sox are also 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Keuchel's last
seven starts. Korean southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu will start for the Blue Jays
tonight and the Sox are 29-4 (+23 games on the moneyline) in their last 33 games vs. teams with a lefty starter. Take the White Sox. As always,
good luck...Al McMordie.
|6/10/2021 - NBA||LOSER|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn. The Bucks were embarrassed in Game 2, as they were blown out, 125-86, by Brooklyn. But that 39-point defeat sets up our play tonight, as .250 (or better) teams have gone 35-5 SU and 28-11-1 ATS at home off a blowout loss by 39+ points, if they were favored by more than 2 points in their current game (and a perfect 6-0 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .600). Moreover, Milwaukee is 44-17-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses. Take Milwaukee minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|6/9/2021 - NBA||LOSER|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets dropped Game 1, 122-105, as a 6-point underdog. But Mike Malone's men have been exceptional in the Playoffs, when trailing in a series, as they're 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game. That bodes well for Denver tonight. As does the fact that .700 (or better) teams are a poor 35% ATS at home in the Playoffs since 1991 when not favored by 8+ points, if they won their previous game in the series by more than 11 points. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|6/9/2021 - MLB||WINNER|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cleveland Indians. After an 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the Orioles of all teams on Sunday, Cleveland had a day off and then took out its frustration in St. Louis on the Cardinals last night. But that was a pitching mis-match with Shane Bieber going up against Carlos Martinez who might not be long for the rotation if he can't turn things around soon. Tonight it will be the ageless wonder -- RHP Adam Wainwright -- going for the Cards. Just shy of his 40th birthday, Wainwright can still go out and give his team six-plus quality innings and he certainly doesn't mind the occasional inter-league match-up. In 42 games vs. the AL (36 starts), Wainwright is 16-12 with a 3.73 ERA in 242 innings. In two previous games vs. the Tribe (one start), Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 12 Ks and three walks in 11 innings. Despite their win on Tuesday, the Indians are still 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games. The Cards are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a favorite. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|6/9/2021 - NHL||LOSER|
At 7:35 pm,
our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the New York Islanders. Just
like they did against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Islanders have taken
all the air out of the sails of their opponent with a huge Game 5 win
on the road to take a 3-2 series lead. But even though the uniform
colors of the Pens and Bruins may be very similar, there is reason to
believe that the Isles will have a tougher time wrapping up the series
tonight at home. For one thing, in the regular season, Boston only lost
nine games in regulation on the road (Pittsburgh had lost 12), one of
the lowest such numbers in the league. Second, Bruins goalie Tuukka
Rask was not 100% for Game 5 and had a rare off-night (four goals on 16
shots) before being replaced by rookie Jeremy Swayman. With a day off
to recover, Rask should be ready to go tonight and eager to show
everyone -- especially his teammates that -- Monday was a fluke. To wit: Rask's
career GAA vs. New York is 1.88. Finally, the Bruins are a perfect 8-0 in their last
eight games following back-to-back losses. Take Boston. As always,
good luck...Al McMordie.
|6/9/2021 - MLB||WINNER|
At 7:05 pm,
our selection is on the New York Mets over the Baltimore Orioles. Don't
look now, but some other team's lineup seems to have taken over that of
the Baltimore Orioles in the last few days. All the O's hitters have
done over the last two games is put up 28 runs on 37 hits in victories
over the Indians and Mets. Tonight, the Mets stay in town for the
second of this two-game inter-league set and the problem for the Orioles
won't be their offense but the fact that a former Met is scheduled to
go to the mound for them. Matt Harvey was all the rage for New York
when he came up at age 23 almost 10 years ago. But injuries have
completely derailed Harvey's career and he's now trying to resurrect it
in Baltimore (but it's not going well). In contrast, a pitcher who HAS
resurrected his career is Harvey's mound opponent tonight -- the Mets veteran RH Taijuan Walker. Walker is 4-2 in 11 starts, with a sparkling
2.17 ERA in 54 innings. Most importantly, Walker's teams are
10-1 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his last 11 starts as a favorite.
Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.