Handicapper Profile

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  There was little the Brewers' bats could do against the Cards' pitching Monday night as three St. Louis hurlers combined on a one-hitter in a 3-0 shutout.  This is a huge series for both teams, but it's the Brew Crew who are feeling the pressure, now three games behind in the three-way NL Central race.  Milwaukee will send LHP Gio Gonzalez to the mound for the 12th time this season.  It is hoping that the veteran southpaw can recreate the magic he displayed after he came to the Brewers at the end of last August.  In his five 2018 starts after the trade from the Nationals, Gonzalez went 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in just over 25 innings.  Re-signed as a free agent after being released by the Yankees at the end of April, Gonzalez has been solid so far with a 2-1 record and 3.81 ERA in his 11 starts.  His only other start against the Cards as a member of the Brewers -- last September -- resulted in a lopsided 12-4 Milwaukee victory.  The Brew Crew is 7-1 in Gio's last eight starts vs. winning teams and 4-1 in his last five on the road.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The 49ers opened their preseason last weekend with a 17-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while Denver was upset, 22-14, as a 2-point favorite at Seattle.  Unfortunately for San Francisco, since 1983, teams that opened the Preseason with a win have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their next game if they played on Monday Night Football away from home, and were matched up against an opponent off a straight-up loss.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are a stupendous 12-0 SU/ATS in the Preseason off an upset loss since 2002 (and 19-2-1 ATS since 1983).  Lay the points with Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwakee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  After scoring just one run in on Friday night in DC, the Brewers exploded and plated 23 in the final two games of the series.  They come into this critical series in St. Louis hoping they can continue their production at the plate.  Two young righthanders with very similar numbers will face each other tonight in this NL Central Match-up.  The Home team sends Dakota Hudson and his 11-6 record and 3.85 ERA to the mound while the Crew comes in with Zach Davies who is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA in his 23 starts.  In four previous career starts here, Davies has no record, but he has a solid 3.68 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just four walks in 22 innings.  On the other side, Hudson has five appearances against the Brewers -- including two starts -- and he is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in just over 11 innings.  The Brewers are 19-13 (+14 games on the money line (+43.75% ROI)) as a road underdog with Davies starting in his career.  Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 4 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  This is a rematch of last year's Preseason contest which was won, in convincing fashion, 36-7, by New Orleans.  We used the Saints in last year's game as our #1 Play of last year's Preseason, and we will take the Saints once again.  It's true that the Saints opened the Preseason with a 34-25 home loss to the Vikings.  But the Vikings have put an emphasis on Week 1 Preseason games under coach Mike Zimmer, as they're 6-0 SU/ATS since he became head coach, so there's no great shame in losing last week to Minnesota.  The Chargers, in contrast, have not fared well in the Preseason under coach Anthony Lynn, as they're 3-6 SU/ATS, including a 17-13 defeat at Arizona last week.  Since 1985, road underdogs have cashed 61% off a loss in which they gave up more than 31 points.  That bodes well for New Orleans.  As does the fact that the Saints are a fantastic 44-20-2 ATS on the road in the Preseason.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees.  LHP CC Sabathia has been nursing a sore knee since the end of July, which was his third trip to the IL this season.  The Yankees' rotation depth -- or lack thereof -- means that Sabathia is still a regular member of the starting five when he's healthy, despite a very sub-par campaign so far (5-6 with a 4.78 ERA).  The 39-year-old will get his 18th start of the season this afternoon and it will be against an Indians lineup that's capable of putting up a ton of runs (e.g., 19 in the case of Thursday's game).  The Tribe will turn to one of its most reliable starters of late as RHP Mike Clevinger goes to the hill for his 13th start.  Like Sabathia, Clevinger has spent some considerable time on the IL this season.  But unlike him, he has been on fire since returning the last time on June 28.  Particularly impressive is what Clevinger has done in his four road starts since coming back, allowing six earned runs on 20 hits in 27 innings (a 2.00 ERA).  Clevinger's only other start at Yankee Stadium was also a good one -- two runs on one hit in 7 1/3 innings last May.  Take the Tribe.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Diego Padres.  It doesn't get more dramatic than what took place here at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night.  Down by five runs entering the bottom of the ninth, the Phillies came back with six runs -- highlighted by a Bryce Harper walk-off grand slam -- to beat the Cubs.  Perhaps that will help motivate this team which, despite being five games over .500, still seems to be struggling to find its groove.  The Phillies picked up a veteran LHP in Jason Vargas from the Mets at the trade deadline and, although he's given them some quality innings in his three starts since coming over, the 36-year-old is still looking for his first win in a Phillies uniform.  That could come today against a mostly over-matched Padres club which is starting to look towards next season at this point.  Vargas has a winning record vs. San Diego, going 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA in six career starts vs. the Padres.  In fact, the last one came just two starts before he was shipped off from the Mets, as Vargas threw six one-hit, shutout innings on July 23 in a 5-2 NYM win over SD.  Take the Phillies.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns won their Preseason home opener last week in blowout fashion, 30-10, over Washington.  Meanwhile, the Colts were upset on the road, 24-16, by the Buffalo Bills.  But I love Indianapolis to bounce back at home on this Saturday.  Indeed, teams have covered 70% since 1983 in their Preseason home openers off an upset loss, if they're matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS win in their home opener.   Additionally, the Browns are a horrid 1-8 ATS in the Preseason off a double-digit win, while the Colts are 7-2-1 ATS vs. foes off a 20+ point victory.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians and New York Mets.<br><br>At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees.  This is a great pitching match-up today in the Bronx.  James Paxton will start for the Yankees, and he's won his last three starts (2.89 ERA; 0.96 WHIP).  But, not to be outdone, Cleveland starter Zach Plesac is 3-0 in his last seven starts, and the Indians have won all seven of those games (3.11 ERA).  It's true that Plesac has been installed as an underdog this afternoon, but the Indians have gone 4-1 in his five underdog starts this season.  Meanwhile, Paxton has burned money as a favorite this season (and also in his career).  And as a home favorite of -150 (or more), his teams have gone 17-18 (minus 18 games on the money line).  The Indians are 25-14 vs. lefties, 9-4 their last 13 as underdogs, and 44-20 their last 64 overall.  Take the Indians.<br><br>At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It's LHP Steven Brault's fourth season in the Majors -- all of those with the Pirates.  In his rookie campaign, Brault made most of his appearances as a starter, but after that, he switched to the bullpen.  Now the 27-year-old southpaw is back in the rotation, having made 11 of his 17 appearances as a starter this season.  His ERA may be the best that it's been since he came into the league, but at 4.33, Brault is still a work in progress for Pittsburgh.  The biggest problem for Brault has been his walk rate, as the former 11th round draft pick of the Orioles has issued 36 free passes in 70 2/3 innings (a 4.6 walk rate).  Veteran LHP Jon Lester will go for the Cubs and although Lester's numbers are not what they've been the past several seasons, the 35-year-old southpaw is still dangerous.  And it doesn't hurt his chances that Lester is 10-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Bucs.  The Pirates are also just 2-10 in their last 12 home games.  Take Chicago.<br><br>At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Kansas City Royals.  Jacob deGrom will toe the rubber for the Mets tonight, and he's been as consistent as any pitcher in the game.  Over his last 15 starts, he's given up 2 earned runs or less in 14 of those 15 games.  For the season, his ERA is 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.06.  And it's 1.42 and 0.94 over his last 3 outings.  Jake Junis will get the ball for the Royals and, unlike deGrom, his ERA is approaching five runs a game (4.80), and is north of five runs a game at home (5.64).  The Royals have been at their worst as a big underdog, as they're 23-65 (minus 20 games on the money line), when priced from +175 to +250.  Take the Mets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics.  In one of the biggest upsets ever (and the biggest upset on record over the last 15 years), the Astros lost to the Orioles five days ago with their ace, Justin Verlander, on the mound as a -475 favorite (some books had Houston favored by -525).  If that won't motivate you to come back in your next start, then nothing will.  Verlander goes to the hill tonight in Oakland, and he loves pitching there, as he is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 13 starts covering just over 88 innings at the Coliseum.  And the other thing about the future Hall of Fame pitcher is the fact that Verlander gets stronger as the season progresses.  The 36-year-old is 100-55 (.645) with a 3.25 ERA in 193 starts after the break compared with 119-72 (.623) with a 3.44 ERA in 251 starts before.  The A's rank 13th in the American League in hitting vs. right-handers, batting just .239 vs. them this season.  And they're 16-40 in the last 56 meetings with Astros overall, and 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Oakland.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears over the New York Giants.  The Giants opened their Preseason with a nice 31-22 home win over their cross-town rivals, the Jets.  The Giants will now welcome the Bears into the Meadowlands.  And Chicago should be in an ornery mood after losing its home opener, 23-13, to Carolina.  We will fade the Giants, as they've covered just 17 of their last 54 as a Preseason favorite/PK, including 0 of 7 since 2016.  Moreover, NFL teams have cashed just 39% in the Preseason as a home favorite off a win in their home opener, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss.  Take the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.