Handicapper Profile

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over UNLV.  The Runnin' Rebels upset San Diego St., 27-24, as a 24-point underdog last Saturday.  That was the 2nd biggest upset on the road this season.  Only Oregon State's 41-34 upset at Colorado, as a 26.5-point underdog, was a bigger upset.  Not surprisingly, as a majority of teams do after pulling such upsets on the road, Oregon State failed to cover the spread the next week vs. USC.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off a road upset as an underdog greater than 19 points, have covered just 35% their following game, including a paltry 18% if its opponent was off a point spread loss.  And Hawaii is off an ATS loss, as it fell by 39 points to the Utah St. Aggies two weeks ago, as a 17.5-point underdog.  The fact that Hawaii will play with an extra week of rest certainly won't hurt (Hawaii's cashed 64% at home since 1985 when playing with rest vs. an unrested opponent).  Even worse for UNLV:  it's just 2-14 ATS off a road win over a conference foe.  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Calgary Flames, San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators.<br><br>At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Edmonton Oilers.  Two teams that are seemingly treading water at this point in the season meet tonight in Calgary as the Oilers come in for their first visit since last Spring.  Edmonton made two appearances here, 18 days apart on March 13 and 31 and the Flames won both of those. Sure, they feature the best player on the Planet in Connor McDavid, but is he enough to make the Oilers a legitimate Stanley Cup contender?  Not when the rest of the team keeps under-achieving.  And although they added some pieces in the off-season, they may not have done enough to differentiate themselves from other contenders.  The results of the season so far seem to bear that out as the Oilers have gone just 9-8-1 in their first 18 games.  The offense was there last season, but the Oilers needed to improve on Defense.  And so far, at least, they haven't done that.  The Oilers' 3.11 GAA is only slightly better than their 3.20 number from last season, which was highest in the Western Conference.  The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two.  Take the Flames.<br><br>At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over St. Louis.  Last night, the Blues went into Vegas, and upset the Golden Knights.  Can they make it two upsets in a row?  It's not likely, as San Jose will be the more well-rested team this evening, as it had last night off.  Moreover, the Sharks will be looking to avenge a 4-0 shutout loss to the Blues eight days ago.  And San Jose is a super 24-9 when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 3 goals, and 9-3 when playing with revenge from a shutout loss.  Take the Sharks.<br><br>At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Los Angeles Kings.  After starting their season with eight straight road wins, the Predators hit the proverbial wall, and have lost their last three road games.  The good news for the Preds is that they're back home tonight.  And they'll have the added advantage of playing an unrested Kings team off an upset win over the Blackhawks last night.  L.A. is an awful 53-88 on the road when the O/U line was 6 goals or more, and it's won just 17 of 50 games (minus 19 games on the money line) when playing an opponent with a winning record!  Meanwhile, Nashville's a powerful 21-8, + 13 games on the money line, off back to back losses (and 6-1 off 3+ losses).  Take the Predators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers minus the points over Drexel.  The Dragons may be without point guard Kurk Lee (14.5 ppg) today.  He sat out Drexel's 118-41 win over tiny Bryn Athyn (the smallest school in Division III) on Wednesday, but I expect him to play.  Regardless, we will go against Drexel in this cross-town rivalry contest.  Last year, Drexel went into La Salle, and upset the Explorers, 72-70, as a 12-point underdog.  Today's game is also at La Salle, and I love the Explorers to avenge last season's upset loss.  Indeed, over the last 29 seasons, double-digit home favorites have cashed 81% when playing with revenge  from a loss as a double-digit favorite vs. a non-conference foe.  Take La Salle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Pittsburgh Panthers, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Syracuse Orange.<br><br>At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons pulled off a monstrous upset last week, when they went into Raleigh, and upended the NC State Wolfpack, 27-23, as a 19-point dog.  Unfortunately, they're a horrid 1-12 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a line less than 8 points, if they're off an upset win.  And, generally speaking, teams off upset wins as underdogs of +19 or more points don't do very well in their next game.  And especially not at home, where they've cashed just 30 of 79.  I look for Pitt to cover its sixth straight game today.  Lay the points.<br><br>At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are 10-0, and ranked #3 in the country.  And they enter this game off a 29-point win over Florida State last weekend.  But College Football favorites of 15 points or less (or PK) have covered just 31.3% away from home since 1980 in the regular season, if they were on an 8-game (or better) win streak, and off a point spread win.  Take Syracuse.<br><br>At 5 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern.  Coastal Carolina comes into this game -- its final home game of the season -- off back-to-back home losses.  But home dogs have cashed 57% since 1980 in their final home game of the season off back to back home defeats.  Moreover, the Chanticleers will be playing, perhaps, their biggest home game ever in their school history this afternoon.  With a win, Coastal Carolina will become bowl-eligible, and will qualify to play in a Post-season Bowl game for the very first time.  With that huge motivation on its side, we'll grab the points with the Chanticleers today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  The Wildcats fall into my favorite College Football system, which is 89-39 ATS since 1980.  And that angle plays on certain NCAA teams off blowout losses (Kentucky lost, 24-7, at Tennessee last Saturday).  That was the 2nd straight blowout loss suffered by Kentucky (it lost, 34-17, to Georgia two weeks ago), which has seen its record fall to 7-3.  But I love the 'Cats to bounce back vs. Middle Tennessee, as SEC Conference teams have covered 68.1% vs. non-conference foes, if our SEC team was off an upset conference loss, and also lost SU/ATS two games back.  Even worse for the Blue Raiders:  they've done very poorly vs. SEC Conference teams.  This season, Middle Tenn was blown out by Vanderbilt (35-7) and Georgia (49-7); last year, it also got drubbed by Vandy (28-6).  Dating back to 2009, it's 1-13 straight up vs. SEC Conference foes, and 4-10 ATS.  Take Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have been a big money-burner in Las Vegas this season, as they're 4-6 ATS, including 2-5 ATS vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  I don't expect things to change on this Saturday, as they will have to play a Maryland club desperate to earn a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a Bowl game.  The Terrapins certainly had hoped to secure their 6th victory of the season in one of their two previous games, but they lost at home to Michigan State, and then last week at Indiana.  The good news, though, for Maryland is that it's 11-2 ATS since 1980 in its last home game of the season, if it's off a SU/ATS loss, and facing a conference opponent (and 7-0 ATS if it's off back to back SU/ATS losses).  Meanwhile, Ohio State has been awful vs. Big 10 Conference foes off back to back losses.  Since 2006, it has gone 5-15 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points.  Finally, the Buckeyes fall into a negative 40-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU/ATS wins.  Take Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State.  The Broncos come into this game on a five-game win streak after upsetting Fresno State last week.  Meanwhile, New Mexico has dropped its last five games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the cold Lobos, and bet on the hot Broncos, including a 42-24 defeat, as a 14-point underdog, at Air Force last Saturday.  But since 1980, home teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 67% vs. foes on 5-game (or better) win streaks, if our home team was also off an ATS loss, while our road team was off an ATS win.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  SMU enters this game off back to back double-digit wins over Houston (45-31) and Connecticut (62-50).  Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll grab the points with SMU, as it falls into a system of mine which has cashed 63% since 1980.  What we want to do is play on any home underdog off back to back wins, if it scored 90+ points combined over its two previous games.  SMU needs just one more win to achieve eligibility to play in a post-season Bowl game.  With this being its final home game of the season, I expect a supreme effort tonight.  Take the Mustangs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs are 2-1 following a 137-60 blowout of Florida Christian College, while the Longhorns are 3-0 after their 65-55 win over Louisiana Monroe, as a 19-point favorite.  It's true that Texas has yet to cash a ticket in Vegas, as it is 0-3 ATS this season.  But I look for that to change tonight, as undefeated teams, with an 0-3 ATS record, have cashed 71% since 1992, if installed as a favorite.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State, as Houston falls into an 89-48 ATS revenge system of mine.  These two teams met for the "de facto" NBA Championship last season, in the Western Conference finals, and Houston lost a heartbreaking 7th game, 101-92, when it blew an 11-point halftime lead.  Certainly, when the NBA execs drew up the schedule, this game would have been one of the most highly anticipated games of the season.  But some of its luster has been lost due to the absence of Steph Curry, as well as by Houston's slow start to the season.  The Rockets are a game below .500, at 6-7, but I expect it to be in the Conference's upper tier by season's end.  For our purposes tonight, Houston's losing record has created significant point spread value, especially given that Golden State's best player (Curry) won't be in uniform.  And even though Golden State owns the league's best record, at 12-3, it has gone 0-4 ATS this season on the road vs. teams that currently have a .400 (or better) win percentage.  Finally, the Warriors are an awful 12-23 ATS as underdogs vs. .660 (or worse) opposition, including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take the Rockets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.