Handicapper Profile

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago.  The Cubs will likely win the division, as they're up on Milwaukee by 2.5 games with just a week to go.  Tonight, though, they'll have to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.  Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon has not given up more than 3 earned runs in a start in his last 20 outings!  And his ERA over those 20 games is 2.70.  And his last start was one of his three best starts this season, as he struck out 11 over seven shutout innings, in a 2-1 Pirates victory vs. Kansas City.  Pittsburgh has now won his last six starts, and 12 of his last 15.  That bodes well against the Cubs and Cole Hamels tonight, as Hamels has a 5.89 ERA over his last three starts, including a troubling, six inning, seven run performance, where he couldn't locate his fastball, at Arizona last Wednesday.  The Buccos have been installed as a sizable underdog, due to the fact Chicago needs to win, while the Bucs have been eliminated from Playoff contention.  But Pittsburgh continues to play hard, and has won six of its last eight games.  With Taillon on the hill, it's a live underdog on Monday night.  Take Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Chicago Bears/Arizona Cardinals game.  The Chicago Bears have scored 23 and 24 points in their first two games, while Arizona has given up 24 and 34 in its first two.  Arizona ranks among the bottom 7 teams in defensive efficiency, so I have no doubt the Bears are going to be able to move the ball into the end zone.  Arizona also should bounce back on offense after its shutout loss.  After all, that shutout was against the Rams, who own the league's very best scoring defense, and who were widely projected going into the season to have the #1 defense this year.  And it also was in Arizona's first road game of the year, while this game is at home.  Indeed, since 1980, teams that were shut out in their first road game of the season have rebounded to score, on average, 19.93 points per game, if that next game was at home.  Finally, teams (like Arizona) off back-to-back unders to start the season tend to go 'over' the total in Week 3, including 82-51 since 1980 if the line was less than 40 points, and 26-12 (regardless of the O/U line) the last five seasons.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the LA Rams.  The Rams were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, at 10-1 odds.  And, so far, so good, as they’re 2-0, and have the league’s #1-ranked scoring defense, and also rank first in overall efficiency and scoring margin.  This week, they’ll try to move to 3-0, but will be tasked with a much more difficult opponent than they saw in their first two games.  In Weeks 1 and 2, the Rams faced two below-average teams in the Raiders and Cardinals.  Now, they’ll face the Chargers, who are scoring 29.5 points per game, and who rank among the Top 3 in offensive efficiency, and among the Top 10 in overall efficiency.  In this battle between offense and defense, we’ll grab the points, as NFL road underdogs (or PK) are 16-0 ATS since 2006, at Game 3 forward, if they score 27.7 points per game, and their foe gives up 15 or less points per game.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have clinched the National League East division title, and will rest some regular position players this afternoon.  So, I expect Aaron Nola -- one of the league's very best hurlers -- to have an easy time of it today.  Nola has the 3rd best WHIP (0.98) in the National League, to go along with a solid 2.44 ERA.  His record in his 31 starts is 16-5, and he's also 6-2 in his career vs. Atlanta, with a 2.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  In his last start vs. the Braves, Philly won 7-3, and he gave up 3 earned runs in seven innings.  And in his three starts this season vs. Atlanta, he's given up just six earned runs in 18 1-3 innings (2.94 ERA). In contrast, Anibal Sanchez has made 18 starts vs. Philly in his career, and has a 4-9 record (his teams are 6-12), with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.  The Phillies are 13-1 this season as a favorite of -150 or more behind Nola, while Atlanta is a poor 11-18 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) its last 29 at home vs. winning opposition.  Take the Phillies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Indianapolis.  We played on the Colts last week, and were rewarded with a 21-9 upset win over Washington by Indy.  Can Indy make it two upsets in a row?  Unfortunately, it's not likely, as road teams off upset wins have only cashed 37% since 1980 against an opponent coming off an upset loss on the road.  Moreover, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 43-30, 58.9% ATS off a road upset loss since 1980.  With Philly off an upset loss at Tampa Bay last week, we'll lay the points with the Eagles on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta.  The Saints enter this game with a 1-1 record, but have yet to cover the point spread.  However, they are an underdog here, compared to being a double-digit favorite in each of their first two games.  We'll take New Orleans + the points, as underdogs (or PK) have cashed 73% over the past 38 years off back to back ATS losses as double-digit favorites.  Additionally, New Orleans falls into 41-21 and 97-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off ATS losses.  Finally, New Orleans is 38-27 ATS as an underdog, while Atlanta is a money-burning 19-31 ATS as a favorite.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Air Force.  The Falcons have won the last three meetings in this series, but I love Utah State to get revenge on Saturday night.  Utah State is 3-0 ATS this season, and comes into this game off back to back blowout wins, in which Utah State scored 60 and 73 points!  For the season, Utah State has scored a whopping 164 points (54.67 ppg).  I love offensive-minded College teams, and it's been very profitable to play on favorites of -30 points or less that scored 150+ points over their previous three games.  Indeed, since 1990, they've cashed 67.1% at home in the regular season when not favored by more than 30 points if they were playing a non-winning opponent.  Even better:  if our team was also playing with revenge, then our system moves to 77% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven. 

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  Last week, the Tigers shocked Auburn as a double-digit underdog, and won 22-21.  But off that big upset win, we will fade LSU as a big favorite vs. Louisiana Tech (which is also undefeated this season).  Indeed, home teams have cashed just 28% in the regular season since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our home team won outright as a double-digit road dog their previous game!  Take Louisiana Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Iowa State Cyclones, Oklahoma Sooners and Alabama Crimson Tide.<br><br>At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron.  The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma.  But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here.  Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins!  And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern.  Even worse for the Zips:  they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34.  However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game.  Take Iowa State.<br><br>At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Texas A&M.  The Tide have run roughshod over their first three opponents, with wins by 37 (Louisville), 50 (Arkansas State) and 55 (Mississippi) points.  And with those blowouts, the Tide has covered the point spread by an average of 20.5 points per game.  I look for Alabama to make it four in a row on Saturday, as NCAA Football teams off 3 SU/ATS wins, that scored 50+ points in each of those three games, have cashed 65.7% in the regular season since 1980.  Lay the points.<br><br>At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Army.  The Black Knights are 2-1 this season after winning back-to-back home games over Liberty and Hawaii.  Now, they'll hit the road to play the #5-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who are 3-0 this season.  Army has had its troubles on the road over the last eight years.  This season, it was blown out by the Duke Blue Devils, 34-14.  And Army is 8-31 straight-up, and 13-25-1 ATS its last 39 on the road.  Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home.  And they fall into 49-15, 64-27 and 55-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins.  Take Oklahoma minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include Kentucky, North Carolina and Louisville.<br><br>At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh.  UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS).  I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week.  Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses.  Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week.  Take North Carolina.<br><br>At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia.  The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not!  And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams.  Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins).  The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season.  In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games.  This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season.  Take the Cardinals on Saturday.<br><br>At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  The Wildcats are 3-0 this season, including an impressive 27-16 victory at Florida, which snapped a 31-game losing streak to the Gators.  Now, the Wildcats will attempt to move to 2-0 in SEC Conference play by avenging a 38-point loss to the Bulldogs last season.  They've been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  And we'll grab the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a win, with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 57% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a conference opponent. Take Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.