| Date | W/L |
| 9/24/2021 - MLB | WINNER |
At 7:10 pm, our
selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Washington Nationals. With
just three wins in their last 10 games, the Reds are seeing their
Playoff chances slip away. With less than 10 games left, they have to
make the most of a series like this one -- four games against a Nats
team that traded away most of its major pieces at the end of July. But
DC drew first blood on Thursday, making this almost a must-win situation
for the home team tonight. Despite their victory here last yesterday,
the Nats are just 10-35 in their last 45 road games and 2-8 in their
last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record. Sonny Gray gets his
25th start of the season for the Reds tonight, and although things
haven't gone the way he would have wanted in 2021, Gray is still a solid
veteran RH, capable of delivering a victory on any given outing. In
six career starts covering 35 innings vs. the Nationals, Gray is 2-1
with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Reds are also 27-12 in their last 39
games as a home favorite. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al
McMordie. |
| 9/24/2021 - College Football | LOSER |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Wake Forest. Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out, 59-39, by the North Carolina Tar Heels, while Wake Forest thrashed Florida State, 35-14. But off those results, we'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Friday, as they fall into a 99-49 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off double-digit conference losses the previous week. Moreover, the Cavaliers are 19-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS their last 21 home games. And they're 8-0 ATS their last eight at home (and 20-6-1 ATS their last 27 home games) when not favored by 7+ points. Take Virginia to rout the Demon Deacons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
| 9/23/2021 - College Football | WINNER |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State. Last week, Marshall was stunned, 42-38, as a 10.5-point home favorite by East Carolina. But I love Marshall to rebound tonight in Boone, as Conference USA teams have cashed 57% in non-conference road games off an upset home loss. These two schools met last season in Huntington, and the Herd upset the Mountaineers, 17-7, as a 6.5-point home underdog. They are once again installed as an underdog, and we'll grab the points with Marshall on Thursday. Indeed, Sun Belt conference teams are a horrible 32-67 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if that foe didn't own a losing record (including 0-11 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite, priced from -2.5 to -12.5). That doesn't bode well for Appalachian State on Thursday night. Nor does the fact that Marshall is a fantastic 11-1-1 ATS its last 13, and 16-5-1 ATS its last 21 in non-conference games when off a straight-up loss, and not favored by more than 3 points. Finally, App State is a wallet-busting 3-14 ATS at home off a win, when playing an opponent which doesn't own a winning ATS record. Take Marshall + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
| 9/23/2021 - MLB | LOSER |
At 2:10, our
selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.
With their victory here last night, the Cardinals' winning streak has
now reached 11 games. The Brewers get one more crack at them this
afternoon (they will play them again in St. Louis in five days). Their
hopes for not getting swept in this four-game series will ride on the
arm of RHP Adrian Houser. Overshadowed this season by Woodruff, Burnes,
and Peralta, Houser has posted a 9-6 record with a solid 3.43 ERA in 26
games -- 24 starts -- covering 131 1/3 innings. In nine career games
vs. the Cards -- six starts -- Houser is 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA in just
over 35 innings. In two starts against them this season, Houser is 2-0
and has yet to allow an earned run in 14 innings, with nine hits allowed
and 10 strikeouts. The last one was right here in Milwaukee on
September 4 when Houser pitched a complete game shutout -- the first of
his career -- in a 4-0 Brewers victory. The Crew is 6-0 in Houser's
last six starts vs. teams with winning records. Take Milwaukee. As
always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
| 9/22/2021 - MLB | LOSER |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee has dropped the first two games of this 4-game series to their division rivals, but I like them to bounce back behind lefty Brett Anderson tonight, on Wednesday. Anderson has a very good 3.04 career ERA vs. St. Louis, including a 1-run, 5-inning outing earlier this season at St. Louis. Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas' career ERA vs. Milwaukee is more than a run higher, at 4.29. And his road ERA this season is an ugly 8.59 (with a 2.04 WHIP). With the Brewers 72-43 their last 115 vs. righties, and 46-25 vs. NL Central foes, we'll take Craig Counsell's men on Wednesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
| 9/21/2021 - MLB | LOSER |
At 7:40 pm, our
selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The
hottest team in baseball right now? It's the Cardinals who have won
nine games in a row to put themselves in a somewhat comfortable position
as the number two Wild Card. But the Brewers have unfinished
business. They want to win the NL Central and they want to clinch it as
soon as possible. They know what can happen in a Wild Card Playoff --
they've lost two in the last two seasons -- and really don't want to go
there again. So, which starter is better to help them get their second
pennant in the last four seasons than RH Brandon Woodruff? In 28 starts
covering 169 1/3 innings, Woodruff is 9-9 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP
with a 4.71 K:BB ratio (198 strikeouts against 42 walks). In eight
career games vs. the Cardinals (six starts), Woodruff is 3-2 with a 3.32
ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And the Brewers have won four of his six starts vs.
St. Louis, including two of the last three. Woodruff has also done his best work at home
this season, as he's 4-2 in front of the home faithful, but 5-7 on the road. Take Milwaukee. As always, good
luck...Al McMordie. |
| 9/20/2021 - MLB | WINNER |
At 8:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Detroit. Last week, Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his storied career. The Packers were favored by 3.5 points against New Orleans, yet only scored three in a blowout loss by 35 points. But one of the things I often like to do is play on teams that scored less points in an upset loss than they were actually favored by, as those teams have bounced back in their next game much more often than not. Even better: Green Bay is a jaw-dropping 34-6 ATS its last 40 (and 10-0 ATS its last 10) with Rodgers at QB, following a game in which it scored less than 23 points! And Green Bay is also an awesome 50-21-1 ATS in Rodgers' starts when favored by less than 13 points against a foe off an ATS win, including 10-1 ATS if the Packers were upset in their previous game. Lay the points with the Packers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
| 9/20/2021 - MLB | WINNER |
At 7:05 pm,
our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. With
their playoff hopes on the line, the Yankees are likely pleased to see
the Rangers coming to town for three games. Then again, they're
probably happy to see anyone other than the Indians after the last two
days as the Tribe put up 11 runs in consecutive games against New York
over the weekend. With all of the struggles the Yanks have had in the
second half, LHP Nestor Cortes, Jr. has been a ray of sunshine since he
stepped into the Yankee rotation on July 4. In his 11 starts, the
26-year-old Cuban is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 60 innings. And the good
news for start number 12 tonight is that Cortes is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA
in 10 games (five starts) here at Yankee Stadium this season. In contrast, Cortes is 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine games on the road. Tonight
will be Cortes' first career start vs. the Rangers (he has made three
relief appearances against them). Texas is 1-4 in the last five
meetings with the Yankees here in the Bronx, and it's 27-68 (minus 22.7 net games) as a road underdog. Take New York. As always,
good luck...Al McMordie.
|
| 9/19/2021 - NFL | WINNER |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Kansas City. Last week, the Ravens were upset, in overtime, by Las Vegas, while Kansas City eked out a 4-point win over a very good Browns team. The good news for the Ravens is that NFL home teams off a upset road loss have cashed 60.3% since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up win. And Baltimore has cashed 76.4% as an underdog over the last 42 years off an upset loss, when matched-up against a non-division foe off a SU win. Take the Ravens + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
| 9/19/2021 - MLB | WINNER |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Francisco Giants. This will be Max Fried's 4th career start against the Giants, and the Braves have won each of his first three, outscoring the Giants by an aggregate score of 23-8. But for those who have followed Fried's career, this 3-0 record won't come as a shock, as the Braves are a staggering 55-24 in his 79 starts. So, even though Fried and the Braves are an underdog here against the best team in baseball, we'll take Atlanta in this underdog role. One key stat for me in this game is that Fried will be working on an extra day of rest following Atlanta's 5-3 victory over Miami on Monday. And the Braves are 24-8 in Fried's 32 starts when he's been working on an extra day or two of rest. Anthony DeSclafani will get the ball for Gabe Kapler's Giants, but he's not had much success in his career vs. Atlanta (1-3, 4.85 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), and he's had even less success this season in his daytime starts (6.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
