Date | W/L |
10/16/2025 - MLB | LOSER |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on
the Seattle Mariners over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays managed to earn an extremely important Game 3 victory here in Seattle last
night. And while things still don't look great for them, at least they
have shifted some of the momentum in this series. But the problem for
the visitors tonight is the depth of the Seattle rotation. We are at
Game 4 in a series and the Mariners have Luis Castillo -- who could be a
#1 starter on quite a few MLB Clubs -- heading to the mound. The
32-year-old RH had another solid season, going 11-8 with a 3.54 ERA and
1.18 WHIP in 32 starts covering just under 181 innings. And he beat
Toronto on April 20. The Jays will go with veteran RH Max Scherzer who
hasn't pitched in the post-season since 2023 but who had a disastrous
end of the regular season, going 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA in four September
starts. More bad news for the Jays tonight: the Ms have won each of the
last six games that Castillo has stepped on the mound for them (five
starts and one relief appearance including two playoff games). Take
Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
10/16/2025 - NFL | WINNER |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins, while the Bengals have lost four straight. We'll fade Pittsburgh, as it has covered just one of its last 10 road games when it was off back to back SU/ATS wins, and favored by more than 3 vs. a foe off back to back losses. The Bengals covered as an underdog last week vs. the Packers, and they're now 17-6 ATS their last 23 when getting more than 2 points, including 7-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Even better: the underdog is now 53-39 ATS in AFC North division games. And home teams have gone 7-0 ATS their last 7 Thursday NFL games vs. division rivals (and 18-7 ATS their last 25) when they entered off 3+ losses. Grab the points with the Bengals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
10/15/2025 - MLB | WINNER |
At 8:05 pm,
our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners.
Toronto finds itself in a huge hole after losing both Games 1 and 2 at
home. And now the Blue Jays have to go across the continent to to play
in front of what is sure to be a loud and unwelcoming Seattle crowd for
three games in order to survive. It won't be easy with the M's hitting
having finally come alive, but Toronto has some heavy hitters as well in
its lineup and you can be sure the Jays will come out swinging tonight.
They will have a savvy veteran on the mound as well in RH Shane
Bieber. The 30-year-old last appeared in Game 3 of the ALDS and
although he got knocked around in that start, it was in Yankee Stadium. Tonight, Bieber will be at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park where he
sports some pretty eye-popping numbers. In five career starts here
covering just under 30 innings, Bieber is 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.11
WHIP with 33 strikeouts and seven walks. Finally, Bieber's teams have gone 46-20 (+20.9 net games) off a loss with him on the mound, and 10-6 (+6.1 net games) as a road dog. Take the underdog Blue Jays. As
always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
10/14/2025 - MLB | LOSER |
At 8:05 pm,
our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The fact that the Dodgers won Game 1 on Monday night on the road
against the team with the best record in the Majors really isn't all
that surprising. After all, L.A. wrapped up its series with the
Phillies in four games and had a full three days off to prepare and
reset the rotation while the Brewers had only had one day off since
taking a tough Game 5 over the Cubs on Saturday. Game 2 tonight is a better set-up for Milwaukee, as its #1 starter Freddy Peralta
should be ready to go on four days' rest. The veteran RH didn't pitch
well his last time out in a Game 4 loss to the Cubs, but that start was on
the road in hostile Wrigley Field. Tonight he is pitching back home
(where he beat the Cubs incidentally in Game 1). Perhaps more important
is what Peralta has done in his career vs. the Dodgers, as in eight
starts against them he is 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA. And even with the loss last
night, the Brewers are still 8-1 their last 9 vs. the Dodgers. Take
Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
10/13/2025 - Canadian Football | LOSER |
At 1 pm (please note the early start time), on Monday, our selection is on the Ottawa Redblacks + the points over the Montreal Alouettes. This is the biggest point spread in the CFL in over two years. Admittedly, the Redblacks are on an 0-3 SU/ATS losing streak. But those three defeats were by 11, 8 and 7 points -- each south of the number they are getting this afternoon. This season, Ottawa has only lost by more than 2 TDs twice: 39-18 to these Alouettes on June 13, and 30-15 to Hamilton on July 20. Additionally, sub-.286 CFL teams off back to back losses have cashed 66% on the road vs. foes off back to back wins. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
10/12/2025 - NFL | LOSER |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers to go UNDER the total. Fifteen of the last 22 games in this series have gone UNDER the total, including their meetings each of the last two seasons (27-14; 23-20) that were won by the 49ers. These two teams both pulled off upsets last week, and did so in a high-scoring game which went over the total. The 49ers stunned the Rams, 26-23, while the Bucs went into Seattle and knocked off the Seahawks, 38-35. That was the 3rd straight Over for Tampa Bay, and the 2nd straight Over for San Francisco. We'll look for the offenses to take a holiday this afternoon, as teams (like Tampa) off three games that totaled more than 51 points have proceeded to go Under 61% when matched up against foes off back-to-back Overs. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
10/12/2025 - NFL | WINNER |
Our 3 selections include the Dallas/Carolina UNDER, Baltimore/Los Angeles UNDER, and Kansas City/Detroit UNDER.<br><br>At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Carolina game. The Cowboys' defense ranks as one of the league's worst, as it is giving up 30.8 ppg. Not surprisingly, three of its five games have gone Over the total. But we'll look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon, as teams that allow 30+ points on defense have gone UNDER 57.2% the last 46 seasons, at Game 6 forward. Take the UNDER.<br><br>At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Baltimore/Los Angeles game. The Ravens have gone Over in each of their five games this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, especially after the Ravens gave up an ungodly 44 points to the Texans last week. But be careful, as teams that gave up 35+ points in their previous game, and are on a streak of 4+ Overs in a row, have proceeded to go Under the total 58% since 1980. We'll take the UNDER.<br><br>At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions to go UNDER the total. Each of these two teams comes into tonight's game off very high-scoring affairs. Detroit crushed Cincy, 37-24, while KC lost at Jacksonville, 31-28. Over the last 46 years, games have gone UNDER 55% when both teams were involved in high-scoring games of more than 54 points, if the O/U line was less than 54 points. That bodes well for the UNDER. As does the fact that the Chiefs are 15-0 UNDER following a loss on the road if the O/U line was greater than 48 points in the current game. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
10/12/2025 - NFL | WINNER |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence & Co. are off to a fantastic 4-1 start following their 31-28 upset win over Kansas City this past Monday night. Meanwhile, the Seahawks stumbled as a home favorite vs. Tampa last Sunday, and fell by three points, 38-35. We'll take Seattle to bounce back, and look for the Jags to have a letdown after that Monday Night upset win over KC. Indeed, .800 (or better) teams off home upset wins have burned money for bettors, and especially when facing a winning team off a SU/ATS loss, as they've cashed just 28% over the last 46 years. And Seattle is 36-23 ATS off an upset loss when not favored by 2+ points the following week. Take the Seahawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
10/12/2025 - NFL | WINNER |
Our 5 selections include the Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Bucs, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs.<br><br>At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Indianapolis. We played against the Cardinals last week, and got the $$$ with the Titans in an upset win. We'll take Arizona to bounce back on Sunday, as it's 27-8-1 ATS as a single-digit road underdog, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if it was off a loss, and its foe was off a win. Take Arizona.<br><br>At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the New England Patriots. The Patriots pulled off a huge win in Buffalo last Sunday night, as an underdog of more than 7 points. But off that emotional victory, we'll fade the upstart 3-2 Patriots on the road this week. Indeed, New Orleans has gone 73-41-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a SU win, including 21-9 ATS vs. foes off upset wins. Grab the points with the Saints.<br><br>At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders minus the points over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee earned an improbable 22-21 triumph last week at Arizona. But it was more of the Cardinals gifting the Titans a win than anything else. This is still a bad football team which has gone 8-27 SU and 8-26-1 ATS its last 35 games. Even worse: off a straight-up win, the Titans are 0-9 ATS their last nine. Take the Raiders.<br><br>At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers. Last week, the 49ers upset their division rival, Los Angeles, in overtime, 26-23. But off that upset win, we'll fade the 49ers in Tampa this week. San Francisco has covered just 41% over the last 46 years on the road following a division upset win. Lay the points with Baker Mayfield & Co.<br><br>At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs lost a thriller on Monday Night Football in Jacksonville, while the Lions defeated the Cincinnati Bengals by two touchdowns last week. Detroit's explosive offense is leading the league at 34.8 ppg, while KC is averaging 25.0 ppg. Andy Reid's Chiefs, though, have been great vs. foes with much better offenses (at least 4.9 ppg better), as the Chiefs have gone 18-2-1 ATS in those games, including 8-0-1 ATS when favored by 2+ points. Take KC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
10/12/2025 - NFL | LOSER |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Baltimore was blown out last week, 44-10, by the Houston Texans, while the Rams were upset on Thursday Night Football by their division rival, San Francisco. I like Baltimore as a big home underdog, as NFL home dogs of +6 (or more) points have cashed 79.3% over the last 46 years vs. an opponent off a SU loss, if our home dog was blown out by more than 28 points in its previous game. That bodes well for Baltimore on Sunday. As does the fact that the Ravens are 70-34-2 ATS vs. foes off upset defeats, including 50-18-2 ATS in non-division games. Take the Ravens. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |