Handicapper Profile

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  It's well-chronicled that the Boston Celtics have yet to lose a playoff game at home this season (they're 9-0 -- both straight-up and against the spread).  That's one reason to favor the Celtics in Game 5, tonight.  Another is that Boston has been the much superior team against the point spread this season.  Boston's covered 63.5%, while Cleveland's cashed just 39.5%.  That's a whopping 24 percent difference.  And in the Playoffs, home teams that have covered more than 17.1% of the time than their opponents have cashed a staggering 82.35% since 1991!  Take Boston in Game 5.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Washington Capitals.  While the Western Conference playoffs haven't had all that much drama (the Knights dispatched the Jets in five games), the East has been a different story.  The Caps had a huge victory over the Penguins in six games and have now taken the Eastern Finals to a seventh game against the Lightning with a dominant performance, at home, on Monday.  But there is some cause for concern as the Caps head south.  Alex Ovechkin was leveled by an illegal hit in the third period on Monday (no penalty was called) and he clearly was not himself after that.  The Caps have been mum about any problems with their superstar, but surely hope he doesn't have any lingering issues.  The other key to this game is Braden Holtby.  If he lets the sold-out crowd get to him like he did in Game 5 when he allowed three goals in just 22 shots faced, then it will be trouble and the Caps will be eliminated.  The Bolts are 17-5 this season when avenging a loss by two or more goals (the Caps won Game 6, 3-0).  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets.<br><br>At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over Miami.  Jake deGrom has been brilliant this season.  And his last start was his best yet, as he struck out 13, and walked none, in a 3-1 win over Arizona.  Jake deGrom's ERA over his last three starts is 0.75, and he'll face a Marlins squad which is 26-77 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) priced as a road underdog of +175 to +250.  Miami will hand the ball to Dan Straily, who has a pedestrian WHIP of 1.45.  Also, New York is a solid 14-4 vs. teams scoring 4 or less runs per game this season.  Take the Mets.<br><br>At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Cincinnati Reds.  You can say what you want about the Reds, but one thing you can't call them is disloyal.  Take the case of Homer Bailey.  The veteran RH has only called Cincinnati home since he came into the league and despite a plethora of injuries and just nine victories in the last four seasons, the Reds are sticking with Bailey at least through 2019, which would be his 13th year with the team.  Once in a while, Bailey will throw in a gem, but more often than not, he struggles to get through a minimum number of innings as evidenced by the fact that the Reds are 1-9 in his 10 starts this season.  And Pittsburgh is not a team that is ideally suited to Bailey busting out of his slump.  Although his career record vs. the Bucs is 10-7, the Reds are 2-8 in Baliey's last 10 starts vs. them, including a 5-2 defeat in his last one on April 5.  Meanwhile, Pirates' RHP Chad Kuhl won't be on anyone's All Star list, but the Pirates are 6-3 in his starts this season including 3-0 in his last three.  The Reds are 5-18 in Division match-ups this season.  Take Pittsburgh.<br><br>At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cleveland Indians.  The Cubs are said to be ready to make an all-out effort to get Manny Machado from the Orioles.  And with SS Addison Russell producing almost nothing at the plate, you can certainly understand why.  Fortunately, the Cubs have enough offense around Russell to offset his anemic production, but landing a player like Machado would automatically make them a World Series favorite once again.  The lack of offense was on display on Tuesday when the Indians trounced them here at Wrigley and no doubt the Cubs would like to prevent home beatings like that in the future if at all possible.  There may have been some concern when LHP Jon Lester took a step backwards last season.  But Lester has laid those fears to rest by bouncing back strong so far in 2018, with a 4-1 record and 2.52 ERA in nine starts so far.  He gets start number 10 tonight and would like nothing better than to beat the same team that he faced three times in the 2016 World Series.   The Cubs are 20-2 in Lester's last 22 home night starts.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners.  At 25-22, the Oakland A's are quietly putting a very nice first half together.  Unfortunately, they're in the same Division as the Astros, Angels, and Mariners so their solid performance to date has only been good enough for fourth place (but just 4 1/2 games out of first).  Tonight they will send RH starter Trevor Cahill to the mound for his sixth start of the season, and Cahill will be opposed by Mike Leake.  Originally a starter when he came into the league in 2009 (with Oakland), Cahill has bounced around and been relegated to the bullpen over most of the past four seasons, mainly due to various injuries.  But his return to the Bay Area has seen a return to form as Cahill has a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his five starts, although he's been a bit unlucky with only one win so far.  In his last four starts vs. the M's, Cahill's teams (KC, Arizona, the A's) are 4-0.  The A's are 5-0 in their last five games (8-2 in their last 10 home games) vs. teams with a right-handed starter.  They are also 5-1 in Cahill's last six starts vs. AL West teams.  Meanwhile, Cahill's teams have cashed his last eight home games, while Leake's teams are a poor 12-23 in division games.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State.  The Rockets owned the best record in the league this season.  But all of that success went out the window in Game 3 when they lost by 41 points.  I love Houston to bounce back on Tuesday, as .667 (or better) teams are a perfect 17-0 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7 to +13 points, in Games 2, 3 or 4 of a Playoff series, if they trail by 1 or 2 games in the series.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Cleveland.  The Celts were bombed by 30 points by Cleveland on Saturday.  Unfortunately for LeBron James & Co., favorites off a playoff blowout win by more than 21 points generally fail to cover the spread in their next playoff game vs. that embarrassed opponent, and especially if they trail in the series.  Since 1991, such teams have covered just 24.2% of the time, including 0-8 ATS in the last two rounds of the Playoffs.  Cleveland is a poor 22-50-1 ATS this season as a favorite, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off a loss by 14+ points.  The Celtics, meanwhile, are 61-34-2 ATS on the season, including 10-1-1 ATS when they lost their previous game by double-digits.  And they're 16-4 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  The Caps finally got Monkey #1 off their backs by beating the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round of the playoffs.  But after taking a 2-0 lead in round three, the Caps have now gone on to lose three straight.  It was their first three-game losing streak since January.  Tampa scored early in Game 5's 3-2 victory and it looked like it would be a rout by early in the second period when the Bolts got their third goal.  But the Caps can feel good about the fact that they came back strongly and completely dominated the second half of that game, out-shooting Tampa 26-9 (13-4 in the third period).  If they can put together 60 minutes at that level of play, they should be able to take this series to a Game 7 back in central Florida.  In fact, Washington has out-shot Tampa in each of the three straight losses and the total shots over that span has been a lopsided 106-65.  The Caps haven't had a four-game losing streak in over a year (March 6-12, 2017) and they are 20-8 in their last 28 home meetings with the Bolts.  Take DC.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves.  At first look, Nick Pivetta's numbers don't seem all that impressive.  The Phillies' RHP has a 3-2 record with a 3.72 ERA in his nine starts.  But were it not for one particularly bad start on May 4 against the Nats in which Pivetta allowed six runs in one inning, his stats would look much better, with an ERA under three runs, a WHIP of just 0.80, and an incredible K:BB ratio of 49:6.  Perhaps most important is the fact that the Phillies are 7-2 in Pivetta's starts this season.  The Braves will go with RHP Mike Foltynewicz who -- in his age 26 season -- is experiencing a bit of a breakout campaign.  But while the 2.87 ERA and 10.9 strikeout rate are very good numbers, Foltynewicz's walk rate is way up as he has issued 24 free passes in 47 innings so far (4.6 per nine IP).  Perhaps not too surprisingly as a result the red-hot Braves are just 3-6 in his nine starts (and 3-13 in his last 16 going back to last season).  You can reverse those numbers for Pivetta (the Phils are 13-3 in his last 16).  The Phils are also 20-7 in their last 27 here at home.  Take Philly.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  These two teams have been off for the last three days.  And such a layoff in a Playoff series has been favoring the home team, of late, as home teams have covered 28 of 38 in series with at least 3 days off from the previous game.  Additionally, the Warriors are a super 22-7 ATS in the Playoffs off a road defeat, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when priced from -5.5 to -9 points.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Jets come back home down 3 games to 1, and their fortunes of coming back in this series rest really on one man -- goalie Connor Hellebuyck.  The Winnipeg defense did its job in games two, three, and four, by holding the Knights to less than 30 shots in each of those.  But Hellebuyck simply wasn't up to the task, and he let in far too many soft goals in those games to enable Vegas to get its 3-1 series advantage.  There's reason to believe that the sold out crowd at Bell MTS Centre will be able to lift Hellebuyck up this Sunday afternoon and he will bounce back strongly and play like he did here in Game 1.  In that one, Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 31 shots faced to get the Jets the victory and their only series lead so far.  The Jets didn't lose four games in a row all season and in fact haven't done so since March of 2017.  One of the strongest angles for the Jets in the regular season was playing at home off a road loss.  In those situations, they were a perfect 10-0 this season.  Moreover, the Jets are 10-2 this season after not scoring 3+ goals in each of their two previous games; 27-6 when playing with revenge; and 37-12 overall at home this season.  Take Winnipeg.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.