Handicapper Profile

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals.  With the Nats holding a commanding a 3-0 NLCS lead and the Cards completely unable to solve their opponents' pitching (only two runs scored in three games), you would think a series sweep would be a done deal.  And, certainly, the historical stats bear that out.  In Baseball history, Best-of-Seven series have been sweeps in 29 of 36 series where one team held a 3-games-to-none lead.  This, by the way, is the primary reason for the inflation of the Nationals' odds for this game.  Of course, the last two times this has happened (2016 Indians/Blue Jays; 2017 Dodgers/Cubs), the team down 3-0 actually won Game 4.  Of course, the Nationals are now overwhelming favorites to advance to the World Series (and I hope they do, as I released them at 18-1 odds to win the World Series), but I don't think they'll win tonight.  For one thing, Washington will start a left-hander (Patrick Corbin) for the first time in this series.  And the Cards have done pretty well with an .810 OPS in eight games vs. southpaws this post-season (that's the second-best number of any club).  Second is the fact that the visitors will start RHP Daniel Hudson.  Although not garnering the notoriety of Flaherty, Wainwright, or Mikolas, the 24-year-old won 16 games in the regular season with a 3.35 ERA.  And his only post-season start was a good one (NLDS Game 3 vs. the Braves).  More importantly, during the regular season, Hudson was 1-1 vs. the Nats with a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts covering 13 innings.  Finally, the Cards are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. left-handed starters.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Montreal Canadiens.  Another season...another chance for the Lightning to show that they can win games after the month of April.  Over the past decade or so, Tampa has become the poster child for under-achievement in the post-season in just about any professional sport.  Last season however, they set the bar even higher than normal, posting one of the strongest regular seasons in NHL history before flaming out in the first round against the Blue Jackets in four straight games no less.  I'm actually quite optimistic about Tampa Bay this season, and released them at 7-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup this season.  Anyway, in an effort to bring in someone who knows what it's like to win a Cup (because he just won one), the Bolts signed Blues forward Patrick Maroon to a one-year contract.  They also shored up their defense by signing Kevin Shattenkirk to a one-year deal.  Clearly, a team that finished 2018-19 with a record 128 points in the regular season shouldn't have to do more than just "tweak" the roster, but keep its powerful core of players intact, which is exactly what the Lightning have done.  The Lightning are 23-6 after allowing more than three goals in their previous game.  And they're 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Canadiens coming into tonight.  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Houston Astros.  With their backs against the wall in Game 2, the Astros pulled it out in extra innings and now they have their ace going to the hill in Game 3 in the Bronx.  But before you think this is a done deal for the 2017 Champs, consider that the Yankees will send a pretty good pitcher to the mound as well.  It wasn't too long ago that RHP Luis Severino was considered one of the top five starters in the AL before a rotator cuff injury sidelined him for almost all of 2019.  Severino came back in September and has done little wrong since returning, including firing four shutout innings in Game 3 of the ALDS against a powerful Twins lineup.  Expect him to go a bit longer this afternoon, especially considering that the bullpen was used more than usual in the 11-inning game on Sunday night.   Severino has solid career numbers vs. Houston, going 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in five games (four starts) covering just under 26 innings.  And the Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 home playoff games, while the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings of these two.  Take the Yanks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Edmonton Oilers.  The Blackhawks have yet to win a game this season while the Oilers have yet to lose -- off to their first 5-0-0 start since 1985-1986.  For the 'Hawks, they needed to improve their defense in the off-season as their 3.55 GAA last season was second-worst in the league.  Mission accomplished -- at least from a personnel perspective -- as Chicago added blue-liners Calvin de Haan (Canes) and Olli Maatta (Pens) via the trade route.  They also provided long-time #1 Goalie Corey Crawford with some help, signing veteran Robin Lehner as a back-up but one that could see as many minutes as Crawford depending on how things go. It will be Crawford to start at home this evening and the 34-year-old has had success against the Oilers in his career, going 9-7 with a 2.53 GAA in 18 appearances against them.  One key for Crawford -- and perhaps the reason he's starting tonight -- is that he was much better at home last season (8-6 with a 2.54 GAA and .921 Sv Pct) than he was on the road (6-12; 3.32; .896).  Take the Blackhawks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  The Yankees surprised the Astros with an upset, shutout victory on the road in Game 1 here at Minute Maid Park.  And while it's never a good feeling going down 1-0 in a series in which you're heavily favored, the 'Stros have to be feeling pretty good about the fact that they will come back in Game 2 with a future Hall-of-Famer taking the mound.  RHP Justin Verlander won 20+ games for just the second time in his career this season.  And he led the league with 223 strikeouts (and became just the 18th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3000 Ks for his career).  You could argue that Gerrit Cole has been a slightly better performer this season, but Verlander is still probably the one guy you'd want on the hill in this situation.  Despite their surprising win last night, the Yankees are just 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Houston, and 3-12 in their last 15 American League Championship Series road games.  Meanwhile, the Astros are 5-1 in Verlander's last six starts vs. the Yanks and 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. a LH starter (Paxton goes for NY).  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Arizona.  Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals earned their first win of the season last week, 26-23, over the Cincinnati Bengals (who are now 0-5).  Atlanta also has just one win on the season.  But the Falcons have played a rigorous schedule, including three road games against winning teams.  So, this will be Atlanta's first road game this season against a non-winning team.  And Atlanta's an awesome 21-7 ATS as road favorites of less than 5 points vs. non-winning teams.  Meanwhile, Arizona is a horrid 8-19-1 ATS at home off a win, when not laying more than 4 points, vs. a foe off a loss.  Finally, road favorites (or PK) off 3+ losses have cashed 71% over the last 40 years vs. foes off a win!  Take Atlanta minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 this season, while the Rams are 3-2.  But L.A.'s played the much more difficult schedule, with games against two 2018 playoff teams (Seahawks, Saints).  In contrast, the Niners have yet to play a team which made the playoffs last season, so this game against the Rams will be the first.  And, for what it's worth, the Rams have gone 4-1 against the spread this season, which compares favorably to the Niners' 3-1 ATS record.  For technical support, consider that .733 (or better) teams have cashed just 34% since 1980 as an underdog of +3 (or more) points vs. foes off back-to-back losses!  And the Niners have cashed just 20 of 61 road games after a 13-point (or greater) win.  Take the Rams minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Kansas City Chiefs, the OVER in the Rams/49ers game, and the OVER in the Titans/Broncos game.<br><br>At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  Last week, the Texans exploded for 53 points in a 21-point blowout win at home vs. Atlanta, while Kansas City mustered just 13 in a home loss to Indianapolis (as a 10.5-point favorite).  Unfortunately for the Texans, NFL teams that scored 52+ points in their previous game have covered just 23.1% of the time as a road underdog over the past 40 seasons.  We saw this just two weeks ago when Tampa Bay fell, 31-24, at New Orleans following a 55-40 win at the Rams.  The Chiefs are a solid 15-6 ATS at home when not laying 6+ points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. a foe which covered by 10+ points its previous game.  Take Kansas City.<br><br>At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/San Francisco 49ers game.  Dating back to 1980, competitively-priced NFL division games, with a point spread of 3 points or less, have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time when the Over/Under line was 47+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 59-28 and 83-44 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'<br><br>At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos to go 'OVER' the total, as it falls into a 63% (115-68) Totals system of mine.  In their last three games, the Titans and their opponents have combined to score 34 (or less) points in each game.  Not surprisingly, all three went 'under' the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially given that Denver is coming off a low-scoring, 20-13 win over the Chargers.  But consider that NFL teams, whose three previous games each combined for less than 37 points, have gone 'OVER' the total 55% of the time when the line was 42 or less points.  Moreover, these two teams have gone 'over' the total in 10 of their last 13 meetings, including 5-0 'over' when the line was 43 points or less.  Finally, Denver's gone 'over' the total 154-111 as a home favorite.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Seattle Seahawks.  The 4-1 Seahawks come into this game off back to back division wins over Arizona and the L.A. Rams, so this is an obvious letdown spot vs. a losing team from the AFC -- the 2-3 Cleveland Browns.  Indeed, over the past 40 years, NFL teams off back to back division wins have cashed just 38 percent vs. losing teams from outside their division, if that losing team failed to cover the spread by 10+ points its previous game.  That bodes well for Cleveland this afternoon.  As does the fact that the Seahawks are just 38.2% ATS since 1980 as road favorites off back to back wins, while the Browns have cashed 80% as .400 (or better) home underdogs vs. a foe off back to back wins.  It's true that the Seahawks played last Thursday, while Cleveland played on Monday, so the Browns will have had less time to rest and prepare.  But more well-rested road teams (like Seattle), off a Thursday game, have actually not covered the spread more often than not over the past 40 years when matched up against teams off a Monday game (and have covered just 28% as road favorites).  We'll take the homestanding Browns to bounce back on this Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Washington/Miami game.  These two teams have combined to go 0-9 this season, and are arguably the two worst teams in football.  It's true that each team lacks skilled offensive players, which would greatly explain why Miami has yet to score two touchdowns in a game, and why Washington (after QB Case Keenum's injury) has been unable to score twice in either of its two previous games.  Of course, it must also be noted that both teams have played strong defenses this season.  Washington has faced New England, Chicago, Dallas and Philly, while Miami has also gone up New England and Dallas, and played the Chargers and Baltimore, as well.  Thus, today's game is a significant departure for each team, as far as the defense it will face (Washington gives up 30.2 ppg; Miami surrenders 40.7 ppg).  I expect both offenses to move the ball, and for this game to be relatively high-scoring.  Indeed, since 1986, NFL match-ups (at Game 3 forward) between two teams whose defenses have each given up more than 30 points per game have gone 'over' the total 64.2% of the time.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.