Handicapper Profile

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Diego Padres.  A couple of very good young righthanders face off tonight at Petco Park.  Chris Paddack is a 23 YO rookie who is developing into one of the best young control pitchers in the Majors.  In all but one of Paddack's eight starts, he has walked only one batter.  But his tendency to put pitches over the plate more than the average starter may be catching up to him.  In his last start, he got knocked around pretty good, and allowed six runs on five hits (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings, while taking his second loss of the season.  Paddack's mound opponent tonight will be Luke Weaver, who came to the D-Backs in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis.  And, so far, he is really enjoying his new team.  Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA and a 9.6 K rate and 4.58 K:BB ratio in his nine starts.  Also, in four career starts vs. the Padres, Weaver has a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just under 24 innings.  And in his only previous start at Petco, he threw five shutout innings, to earn the victory.  Finally, the D-Backs are 9-3 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 12 as a road underdog of +150 or less.  Take Arizona.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are up 3-games-to-none in this seven-game series, so they definitely have Portland on the ropes.  But we'll fade Golden State tonight, as #1-seeded teams are a dreadful 0-9 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they're going for a sweep in a Playoff series, and priced from PK to -7.5 points.  Even better:  since 1990, the Trail Blazers are an awesome 90-52-2 ATS as home underdogs of less than 5 points, including 8-3 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Milwaukee.  After covering the spread for all but the final 29 seconds in Game 1, the Raptors only covered the 6.5-point spread for 4 minutes and 11 seconds in Game 2, and were absolutely annihilated, 125-103.  The good news for the Raptors is that this series now shifts to Toronto for Games 3 + 4.  And they're 10-3 ATS their last 13 games off 3+ point spread defeats.  Moreover, since 1991, NBA teams, seeded #5 or better, are 67-42 ATS off a road playoff loss by more than 21 points.  But that's not the best part.  If our team's win percentage is .640 (or better), and it lost its last two games, then our 67-42 stat zooms to 11-1, 92% ATS, since 2002.  The Bucks last 3 games (all wins), were all at home.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee, it's covered just eight out of its last 33 games off 3 home wins.  Take Toronto minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Cal Quantrill was the Padres' first round selection in the 2016 draft and it didn't take long for the RHP to make it to the Majors as Quantrill debuted at the beginning of this month.  He will get his third start for the Pads this afternoon opposite Pittsburgh's RHP Joe Musgrove.  With San Diego's pitching injuries, Quantrill should be able to stay in the rotation if he continues to perform well.  Although he is still looking for his first MLB victory, Quantrill has a 3.60 ERA and eight strikeouts in 10 innings so far.  Musgrove is 2-4 with a 3.59 ERA in nine games, including eight starts, but he is just 1-3 in six games on the road so far.  Musgrove has been a pitcher of extremes lately.  He threw seven shutout innings in his last start.  But prior to that, Musgrove had two of the worst outings of his career, as he allowed 15 runs (13 earned) on 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in starts against the A's and Cards.  The Bucs were out-scored in those two by 31-5.  San Diego is 7-3 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with RH starters, while Pittsburgh is a poor 41-63 (minus 14 games on the money line) on the road when priced from +100 to +150.  Take the Pads.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  Still stinging from a missed call in the overtime period of Game 3, the Blues came out in Game 4 and did what they had to do.  Now they come back to San Jose for Game 5 with the series all knotted up.  And they come back to the SAP Center knowing that the last time they were here, they pulled an upset in Game 2, and beat the Sharks, 4-2.  Rookie Goalie Jordan Binnington was back on his game on Friday night, stopping all but one of the 30 shots he faced (.967).  And in that second game here last Monday, he had a similar effort.  For their third game in a row, the Blues kept their penalties to a minimum (under 10 minutes) after letting the Sharks bait them in Game 1, which resulted in their worst loss of the playoffs.  The Blues don't mind at all being the underdog, as they are 6-2 in their last eight in this situation.  Additionally, they're an awesome 22-7 their last 29 when playing an opponent which averages 3+ goals a game. Finally, San Jose is a poor 24-30 (minus 19 games on the money line) when playing with revenge from a 1-goal defeat.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Houston Astros.  How do you throw seven strong innings against an inferior opponent, allowing just two runs while striking out an absurd 17 batters and still not get a win?  You can ask Chris Sale how (as that is exactly what he did in his last start), but it's unlikely he would have an answer for you.  After that incredible performance against the Rockies (Sale also did not walk a single batter), his record is still a shocking 1-5 on the season.  He will try to have better fortune this afternoon against Houston, which owns the best record in Baseball.  The good news for Sale today is that the veteran southpaw has done very well against the Astros in his career, going 5-2 with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in seven starts.  The 'Stros will go with LHP Wade Miley, who has has done well in his first season in Houston.  But the veteran has an ugly 7.13 ERA in four career starts vs. the Sox.  Boston is also 9-2 in Sale's last 11 following a quality start by Sale his last time out.  Take the Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Pittsburgh.  This game will match-up two rookie hurlers.  The Pirates will hand the ball to Montana DuRapau, a reliever who will be making his first Major League start, while San Diego will start LHP Nick Margevicius.  Pittsburgh has struggled vs. southpaw starters over the last few years.  This season, the Buccos are a poor 5-8 vs. lefties.  And over the last three years, they're a wallet-busting 43-59 (minus 13 games on the money line).  That doesn't bode well for them tonight.  Nor does the fact that Pittsburgh is a dreadful 27-53 (minus 28 games on the money line) vs. National League West division clubs.  The Pirates won last night, 5-3, but they're just 2-5 this season as road underdogs off a win.  Take San Diego.

At approximately 6:48 pm, our selection in the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes (race #13 at Pimlico Race Course) is #12, Anothertwistafate across the board (Win, Place, Show in equal amounts).<br><br>Blaine Wright's son of Scat Daddy is a "new shooter" for the Preakness in pretty much every sense of the phrase.  Anothertwistafate skipped the Kentucky Derby after he finished 2nd in two straight Derby prep races and it's a good bet that Wright -- who primarily trains out of Washington State -- has never had a starter at Pimlico before this weekend (this will be Wright's first entry in a Triple Crown race).  But there are several reasons I like his colt on Saturday.  First, Anothertwistafate was ultra-impressive in his three straight wins that led up to his runner-up finish in the Sunland Derby.  And he exhibited the type of front-running style in those three races which has been successful here in the past.  Second, when he lost the Lexington Stakes in April to longshot Owendale, Anothertwistafate ran a bit erratically in the stretch, and looked like a young horse who was still figuring things out.  But, despite this, he almost won the race.  Certainly, the five weeks he's had off since that last race will have given Wright time to work with his talented colt to prepare him for the biggest race of his career.  Fresh horses have done a lot of damage in the Preakness in past years.  If there's a knock against Anothertwistafate, it's that those three dominant victories came on synthetic surfaces, but he has shown that he can handle a dirt track just fine.  Also, the outside post position should be a benefit for him as it will allow his jockey, Jose Ortiz (one of the hottest in the country), to settle Anothertwistafate early and go to the front (if he wants) or set just off the inside speed.  Anothertwistafate is 6-1 on the morning line, but don't be surprised if he drifts up from there to an even better price.  Play #12, Anothertwistafate, across the board (WIN, PLACE, SHOW in equal amounts) in the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Our 3 selections include the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.<br><br>At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees.  We played against Tampa LHP Blake Snell in his last start, six days ago (also against the Yankees and RHP Masahiro Tanaka), and got the cash with New York as an underdog of +152.  But we'll switch gears and take Snell and the Rays in the rematch.  Tampa is a super 25-11 (+14 games on the money line) with Snell on the mound when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  And the Rays are 12-5 this season as a road favorite.  Meanwhile, the Yankees have not been profitable as a home underdog over the last three seasons, and they're also dismal as an underdog (whether home or road) priced from +100 to +150 the past three years (21-36, minus 11 games on the money line).  Take Tampa Bay.<br><br>At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Texas Rangers.  This afternoon will be 24-year-old Dakota Hudson's first-ever MLB inter-league start.  And it's fitting since Hudson was an 18-year-old High School student in 2013 when he was drafted in June of that year by the Texas Rangers.  He decided to forego professional baseball at that time and instead enrolled at Mississippi State University (and then was selected in a later draft by St. Louis).  Now, Hudson gets to face the team that initially selected him in the 36th round almost six years ago.  Certainly, Hudson is a work in progress.  But the talent is there.  And nobody would be surprised if, by the second half of the season, the youngster was a solid #3 starter.  Despite the Rangers' win on Friday, the road team is still 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two.  And Texas is just 3-6 in its last nine home inter-league games.  Take the Cardinals.<br><br>At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.  After pounding the Phillies on the road on Thursday, 11-3, the Crew was embarrassed in Game 1 of this series in Atlanta on Friday.  The Brewers' rotation is in a bit of flux at the moment, so having a guy like veteran RHP Chase Anderson, who can fill in and do a more-than-credible job is very important.  After five appearances out of the bullpen to start 2019, Anderson has made a pair of starts and did little wrong.  He currently stands at 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA.  And that's more than enough to earn him his third start tonight as he returns from the IL due to an injured finger, while the Crew awaits the returns of Brent Suter and Jimmie Nelson.  Don't be surprised if the Brewers come back tonight with a similar effort to the one they had against the Phillies as they are 11-3 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 14 vs. teams from the NL East.  The Braves will counter with RHP Kevin Gausman, who threw six strong innings and got the win in his last start.  But they are 0-4 in Gausman's last four after a quality start in his last.  Take Milwaukee.<br><br>  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee.  The Raptors fell by eight points in Game 1, as a 6.5-point underdog.  And the worst part of the game for Toronto backers was that they covered the point spread for all but the final 29 seconds of the game.  Tonight, we'll grab the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co., as I look for Toronto to even up the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, .663 (or better) teams off exactly one loss, and down exactly one game in a Playoff series, have cashed 66.3% when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Raptors are 5-0 ATS on the road this season after a loss by more than six points, and #1-seeded teams (like Milwaukee) are a poor 40% ATS in a Playoff series as a home favorite when up 1-game-to-none.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.