Date | W/L |
6/27/2025 - MLB | PUSH |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds <p> This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. 10* (928) Kansas City Royals |
6/26/2025 - MLB | LOSER |
This a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. Colorado is 8-31 at home following another loss last night, this one an 8-1 setback against the Dodgers, but this is a spot to back the Rockies. This is their 13th home series and they have gone 7-5 in the previous 12 series finales which makes complete sense because teams beat them up in the first two or three games and get lethargic while typically resting players. Of their home wins, seven have been in this situation and we are getting more value because they are the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw is on the hill. He has been really good after allowing five runs in his opening start on May 17th. This is his first trip to Coord Field since 2023 and while this is a different Rockies team than what he had faced but he was much better in the earlier years and still has a 4.71 ERA in 13 starts at Coors Field and enters here in a tough overinflated spot. Austin Gomber got rolled by Arizona in his last start and while the Dodgers have the best offense in baseball, the value is here in the series finale. 10* (954) Colorado Rockies <p> This a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. The Phillies have dropped the first two games of this series, both by not scoring a single run, and ruining two great performances from two of their top three starting pitchers. The third goes today and we are expecting the bats to get something behind Cristopher Sanchez. He allowed four runs against the Dodgers in his second start of the season and has allowed three runs or less in all 13 starts since then including two runs or less 11 times. The Astros have won three straight and six of their last eight games to increase their lead to 5.5 games in the American League West. Hunter Brown has quietly been the ace of the staff with his 1.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP through 15 starts. His numbers are even better at home which is the main cog for this number and the situation is very similar to when we played against Houston on Tuesday which ended up a 1-0 game. Additionally, the Astros have won his last six starts, two of which went extra innings and another three decided by just one run. 10* (967) Philadelphia Phillies |
6/25/2025 - MLB | PUSH |
This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. The Athletics dropped the series opener on Tuesday 11-4 to make it three straight losses as the downward spiral continues. This is a buy low team right now in certain spots and this is one of those with Jacob Lopez taking the hill. He started the season in the bullpen and after three appearances, got promoted to the rotation where he struggled in two of three starts before another bullpen appearance. By default, he got back into the rotation and has been a new pitcher with a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts while striking out 23. The Tigers opened June with a pair of wins but have gone just 10-9 since then yet still have a 9.5-game lead in the American League Central so there is no urgency so we can sell high. Jack Flaherty has come full circle starting last season here before a World Series ring and is back again but not pitching very good. He has a 4.83 ERA through 15 starts which is nearly two runs higher than his ERA in Detroit last season in 18 starts and while he is better here than on the road, the Tigers are 3-5 in five home outings. 10* (917) Athletics <p> This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Tampa Bay came through with the series opening win last night and the Rays are now just one game out of first place in the American League East. It has been a surprisingly good season thus far and they send their ace Drew Rasmussen to the hill. He has a 2.61 ERA through 15 starts and he has really flourished with a home heavy schedule as he has a 2.16 ERA in 11 home outings. This is just his fifth road start and while his ERA of 3.86 in his four road games is still good, it is far from being dominant like he has been at home. The Royals have dropped three straight games and going back prior to last night, they have lost seven straight home games to fall to 19-20 at Kauffman Field. Bring in Michael Wacha who has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball over the last four years with his 3.29 ERA which is No. 7 among 34 starters that have tossed at least 500 innings. He is similar to Rasmussen being better at home as he has a 2.58 ERA here, a run and a half better than on the road. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |
6/24/2025 - MLB | WINNER |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Miami took two of three against Atlanta over the weekend and comes in as a big underdog in its first game out west. Cal Quantrill got off to a rough start this season with an 8.10 ERA through his first six starts but he has regrouped with a 3.93 ERA over his last eight starts with Miami going a respectable 4-4 in those games. He is being priced at his overall numbers and the recent run has decreased his xFIP to 4.51 which is actually lower than Justin Verlander. The Giants are 3-3 on their current homestand after taking two of three from the Red Sox. Obviously, the records of the teams plays into the number but so does the fact the pitcher is Verlander who continues to be overpriced. He did have a good run in late April and early May but went on the IL five weeks ago and has made one start since coming back and it was not good as he allowed three runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings. He comes in with a 4.56 xFIP and has a near identical K:BB% and WHIP as Quantrill. 10* (961) Miami Marlins <p> This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. There is not much of a difference between these two teams, one game to be exact when looking at records but this line is based on the starting pitching numbers that are actually a lot closer when looking at home/road splits. The Angels took the opener last night 9-5 and they do doubt have a tougher test tonight but sending Tyler Anderson to the hill helps. He has a 4.56 ERA through 15 starts which includes a 6.26 ERA in eight road starts while coming off a pair against the Yankees and Orioles but he is back home where he has a 2.75 ERA in seven starts. He has allowed three runs in two of those and fewer than three in the other five outings. Garrett Crochet is having a career year although this is just his second as a full time starter. He has a 2.20 ERA in 16 starts with his home/road splits being very similar. The Red Sox have taken care of business in his road outings as they are 8-1 which is the big reason the number is inflated and we go contrarian to that. 10* (974) Los Angeles Angels <p> This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. This is a game that looks to be closer to even than what the line actually is with a possible difference being the home and road records with those separated by five games. The Phillies took two of three against the Mets and now has a game and a half lead over New York in the National League East. Ranger Suarez did not get into the rotation until May and after allowing seven runs in his first start against Arizona, he has a 1.18 ERA over his last eight starts, all of which have been quality outings and six of those allowing one or no runs. He has a 0.98 ERA in four road starts. The Astros are also coming off a series win, taking two of three against the Angels and have a 4.5-game lead over Seattle in the American League West. Framber Valdez is having a great season as well which was expected as he has a 3.09 ERA which does include a 2.35 ERA in seven home starts and overall, Houston has won his last eight starts but none against an offense like this. 10* (979) Philadelphia Phillies |
6/23/2025 - MLB | PUSH |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. This is a play on the Washington dropped two of three against the Dodgers but came away in the black with a +242 winner. Surprisingly, Washington is 3-10 as a favorite this season but 28-32 when listed as the underdog which is a very solid record when in the plus moneylines. Mitchell Parker got off to a great start with a 1.39 ERA through his first five outings but then hit a four-game rough stretch where he allowed 19 runs but he has settled back down with only two bad outings over his last six games and still possesses a 1.32 WHIP. The Padres are No. 22 in wOBA against lefties while sitting No. 23 in batting average and No. 34 in slugging percentage. They are off a series win against the Royals and send Stephen Kolek to the hill who has made nine starts with seven of those coming on the road and he has been great in those with a 2.13 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. In his two home starts, he has a 9.58 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and the Washington offense can keep it going after scoring 19 against the Dodgers. 10* (907) Washington Nationals <p> This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. Minnesota has now lost nine of its last 10 games following a home sweep at the hands of the Brewers where the pitching was obliterated for 35 runs over the three games. The Twins are now three games under .500 and turn to Bailey Ober who has had issues of his own. He opened the season by allowing eight runs in 2.2 innings at St. Louis and then found his groove, allowing three runs or fewer in his next 11 outings including giving up just one run eight times. June has not gotten off to a good start however as he has an 8.31 ERA through his first three starts but we love the bounce back ability here against a Seattle offense that is No. 28 in batting average at .232. The Mariners took two of three against the Cubs to move a game over .500 on the road and they send Bryan Woo to the hill who is coming off another gem but that was at home. He has a 2.31 ERA in Seattle since the start of last season and his road ERA over that stretch is 3.57, still good but not close to as dominant. 10* (912) Minnesota Twins |
6/22/2025 - NBA | WINNER |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Game of the Month. This is the first NBA Finals Game Seven since 2016 and we are seeing one of the biggest lines in a Game Seven in NBA history. That being said, it has actually come down with early money hitting Indiana, bringing the number down to seven in most spots from the 8.5 opener. The home/road dichotomy for the Thunder has been glaring as they are 5-5 on the road but now are back home where they are 10-2 and the margins are even more obvious as the Oklahoma City average scoring margin in the playoffs is +21 at home compared to -7 on the road. In the 10 home wins, nine have been by double digits with the exception being a seven-point win over Denver in Game Five of the conference semifinals and even in the two losses which were by three points combined, the Thunder had leads of 14 and 15 points. The Thunder were lazy and lethargic in Game Six as they committed 21 turnovers and they were just 8-30 from long range. Both areas will be cleaned up as will the defensive intensity with the home floor being the difference once again which extends the NBA run of the home team being 15-4 in Game Seven finals. 10* (514) Oklahoma City Thunder |
6/22/2025 - NBA | PUSH |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. We have to pick our spots with Colorado and this is one of those with the Rockies having lost three straight games which came after a rare five-game winning streak. There is not much positive to say about Antonio Senzatela other than the fact he is coming off a solid start last time out against Washington. He has had an inconsistent season obviously but he has only four bad starts, two on the road and two at home, the latter against Milwaukee and San Francisco with one of those coming all the way back in April. This is more of a play against Arizona and Brandon Pfaadt who is having a season reminiscent of his 2023 season with nearly identical bad numbers. He has been serviceable at home with a 4.08 ERA but in eight road outings, he has a 6.53 ERA while allowing 12 home runs. Despite 65 career starts with Arizona, he has never pitched at Coors Field and we see problems come Sunday. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies <p> This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. After taking the series opener on Friday, Boston lost Game Two 3-2 with the two runs coming in the ninth inning and just falling short. The Red Sox have won eight of ten games and turn to Lucas Giolito whose first season in Boston has been interesting. He was not good at Fenway Park prior to coming over and this year has been no different with a 7.66 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in five starts, three of which allowing six runs or more. He has made four road starts and has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP while giving up two runs in his last three. Robbie Ray is looking like the Robbie Ray of 2021 when he won the Cy Young with Toronto but he has looked off his last two outings and Boston has crushed lefties this season, sitting No. 3 in batting average and OPS while their 21 home runs are ninth most in the league. He has received no run support at home with the Giants scoring four runs or less in six of eight starts. 10* (977) Boston Red Sox |
6/21/2025 - MLB | WINNER |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Angels lost a tough one in extra innings following a roadtrip where they were swept in Baltimore and followed that up by taking three of four games against the Yankees. They bring in another solid starter tonight in Jose Soriano who opened the season with a 4.50 ERA through his first six starts but has been solid since. He did go to Fenway and got lit up by Boston but in his other eight starts since the start of May, he has a 2.33 ERA. Houston is now 3-2 on this current roadtrip and the Astros are still struggling away from home at 17-19 and while not as big as last night, still come in as the favorite. Brandon Walter will be making his fourth career start after three very strong outings since entering the rotation. He has a 1.53 ERA as he has allowed only three runs, two of which were home runs including a two-run shot, but this is likely unsustainable as now there is film and scouting reports. 10* (918) Los Angeles Angels |
6/21/2025 - MLB | LOSER |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. Seattle took the series opener on Friday 9-4 and has now won five of its last seven games as it looks to keep pace in the American League West, trailing the Astros by five games. Emerson Hancock has been serviceable with a 4.48 ERA and it has only been two bad outings that has hurt him as he allowed 13 runs in 5.2 innings against the Yankees and Tigers and take those out and that ERA comes down to 2.86 in his other 10 outings. Both of those were at home as well so he has the reverse splits with a road ERA of 3.31 over six road outings. The Cubs have lost two straight and will be a big public favorite behind Cade Horton who is off to a solid start in his rookie season as he has a 3.47 ERA through six starts and one relief appearance. He has a 2.70 ERA in three home starts but those were against the White Sox, Rockies and Pirates, the three teams with the three worst records in baseball. 10* (923) Seattle Mariners <p> This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. The Royals have won four straight games following a 6-5 series opening win on Friday which has come after a six-game losing streak and they are now back to .500. Noah Cameron got off to an incredible start as he posted a 0.85 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through his first five starts before the Yankees came to town as they roughed him up for six runs over 5.2 innings. The rookie did not let that affect him however as he bounced back with five shutout innings against the Athletics and he is back on the road where he has a 0.47 ERA in three outings. The Padres have now lost seven of their last nine games and hand the ball to Dylan Cease who had a very good first season with San Diego in 2024 but has regressed this season with a 4.69 ERA through his first 15 outings. This is mostly due to a pair of bad games, both of which were on the road, and he comes in with a 3.00 ERA in seven home starts and is overpriced based on that. 10* (929) Kansas City Royals |
6/20/2025 - MLB | PUSH |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. The Angels are back home following a roadtrip where they were swept in Baltimore and followed that up by taking three of four games against the Yankees including a pair of shutouts. Yusei Kikuchi will open the series and they could not ask for a better opener as he has been awesome at home with a 1.05 ERA in six starts covering 34.1 innings. He has allowed only four earned runs, two of those via the long ball and his efficiency has led the Angels to go 4-2 in those six outings with one loss being a 1-0 decision against the Yankees. Houston is coming off a split against the Athletics so it did not improve its road mark as the Astros are still struggling away from home at 16-19 yet come in as a huge favorite. That is because of Hunter Brown who has been Cy Young material with a 1.88 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 starts. His best work has been at home and his road ERA is nearly a run and a half higher and while a 2.42 ERA is still strong, Houston is 5-3 in his eight road outings including one extra inning win and a win against the White Sox. 10* (968) Los Angeles Angels <p> This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. Jacob Misiorowski made his MLB debut last Thursday against the Cardinals, but his outing was cut short when he slipped on the mound which ended his night after five innings where he did not allow a hit while striking out five and walking four. He does have off the chart stuff as after reading a piece from Davy Andrews from FanGraphs, nearly every pitch Misiorowski throws looks like a fastball despite him throwing in sinkers, changeups, curves and sliders. Minnesota salvaged a game in Cincinnati on Thursday which snapped a six-game losing streak and got the Twins back to .500 and now back home, they come in heavy favorites based on their 20-12 record and Joe Ryan being on the hill. He is having a great season with a 2.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 14 games with one of the better K:BB% in the league. He does not have a strong home/road split as his numbers are nearly identical which is what you want from a pitcher but not being more dominant at home should not cause this number to be so big against a quality opponent. 10* (975) Milwaukee Brewers |