This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. Two of the most disappointing teams square off in Atlanta and we are going with the big dog for a few reasons. The Orioles fell to 18-27 on the road after a series loss in Texas and the pitching has been dreadful but we go with them tonight trending the right way. We have talked about how Charlie Morton is overvalued but now we get a spot where he is undervalued going against his former team. He was awful in April, going 0-5 with a 9.26 ERA with a 23:20 K:BB ratio but he has steadily gotten better with a 3.98 ERA in May and a 2.88 ERA in June in his first month of exclusively starting. Overall, he has a 5.63 ERA but is pitching to a 4.15 xERA shoeing positive progression. The Braves have lost their first two series on this homestand against the Phillies and Angels and they come out strong with Spencer Strider in the opener but he still has not been the pitcher of old. His K:BB% is the lowest of his career and he is still being priced from his Cy Young year. 10* (971) Baltimore Orioles

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This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. We played against the Dodgers last night with our comp play expecting a letdown but the White Sox bats got nothing going against Dustin May. Los Angeles is running away in the National League West as expected but now it faces a legitimate team in another overvalued spot. Tonight, it is Ben Casparius who is making a spot start after being a bulk reliever in his last three games and it has not gone well, allowing 11 runs over 12.2 innings and those were against two bad offenses and an underachieving Padres lineup. The Astros have taken control of the American League West with a seven-game lead over the Mariners with a 16-5 run since June 11th while being underdogs only three times over this stretch and now by far the biggest. Lance McCullers, Jr. is coming off another awful start which was at home where his ERA is 11.37 in five starts and now he hits the road where he is obviously more comfortable as he has yet to allow a run over three starts. 10* (975) Houston Astros

This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Winnipeg comes in as the road favorite basically because it is Winnipeg and because the Blue Bombers are off to a 3-0 start. All three wins have been by double digits so they are 3-0 against the number as well and will certainly be the public play tonight. The Calgary passing offense has yet to find its rhythm as quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. completed only 53 percent of his passes for 218 yards and an interception in his last game and has yet to toss a touchdown pass. The Stampeders have been impressive in other aspects though as they lead the league in points allowed at 21.7 ppg, allowed a league low four touchdowns while leading the league in total offense at 388.7 ypg and rushing offense at 135.0 ypg. Coming off a bye, they have the rest and preparation edge. 12 of 16 CFL games have been decided by nine points or more and this will not continue so anyone who plays trends will continue to follow this and eventually will come back to the mean. 10* (710) Calgary Stampeders

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. The Angels pitching had one bad inning on Wednesday which dropped them to 2-3 over their last five games following a three-game winning streak. The value is there again as the offense struggled but they face another below average starter Thursday to get back to .500. Jose Soriano got lit up in his last start as he allowed eight runs in four innings against the Nationals but we saw this before. He gave up seven runs against the Red Sox to open June and followed that up with three straight quality starts, allowing two runs over 20.2 innings. He has a 2.78 ERA in nine road starts compared to a 5.57 ERA in eight home outings. We will continue to fade the Braves at these prices as one game is not going to bring them around, still sitting seven games under .500 and being priced as they are the team they were. Bryce Elder started slow and put some good starts together that included five quality starts in a nine-game stretch but got lit up for nine runs against the Phillies last time out which bumped his home ERA to 6.61. 10* (915) Los Angeles Angels

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This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. This is almost verbatim from last night with the Guardians and they catch a better matchup. Cleveland is struggling as it has now lost six straight games to fall four games under .500. The offense put up six runs in one of the games against St. Louis but they have scored a total of six runs in the other five and while the matchup is better, it is still a contrarian play based on who they are playing and the number. Luis Ortiz takes the hill after another shaky outing following a strong performance which came after a pair of bad outings. What we do like is that he is pitching to a 3.72 xFIP. The Cubs have been hit or miss over the last few weeks and are in a tough spot in this series finale with Cade Horton making his ninth start. He was lit up against the Astros in his last start, allowing seven runs in four innings and now has a 4.80 ERA and a 4.72 xFIP. He does have a 3.38 ERA at home but three of his four home starts have come against the Pirates, Rockies and White Sox, ranked No. 29, No. 26 and No. 30 in OPS respectively. 10* (917) Cleveland Guardians

This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Don’t look now but the Pirates are red hot and now send their ace to this hill so sign us up. The other way. Pittsburgh has won four straight games following a 7-0 series opening win which came after a sweep of the Mets. The Pirates are now three games over .500 at home and the bats are crushing it but this is not sustainable with a team that is No. 24 in batting average and on base percentage, No. 28 in slugging percentage and No. 29 in OPS. Paul Skenes is having a great sophomore season with a 2.12 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 17 starts but he has actually been better on the road as he has a 2.56 ERA in seven home starts which is certainly good but the Pirates are 3-4 in those games including a loss to St. Louis where he allowed five runs in six innings. The Cardinals had won three straight in Cleveland prior to last night and are eight games over .500. Andre Pallante has a 2.95 ERA over his last three starts, has dominated the Pirates in his career and has a 3.70 ERA in his last four road starts. 10* (903) St. Louis Cardinals

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This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. We are coming back with the Athletics and the value as this pitching matchup is nearly a dead heat while their bats have been picking it up. As mentioned yesterday, the offense is top 12 in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS and now five games under .500 on the road, they are catching a great number and have been better on the highway than in their minor league park at home. Jeffrey Springs is facing his old team for the first time and Tampa Bay was where he had his breakout in 2022 with a 2.46 ERA in 33 games including 25 starts before injuries hit hard the next two seasons. He has had a solid start to this season with a 4.30 ERA but is pitching to a 3.96 xERA and possesses a 1.24 WHIP. Also, he has been better on the road than in his cookie cutter home park. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight and is just three games over .500 at home. Shane Baz has a 4.37 ERA and a 3.90 xERA and 1.26 WHIP, nearly identical numbers as Springs while his home ERA is 5.70 compared to 2.91 on the road. 10* (911) Athletics

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This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. If Atlanta is not starting one of their three S aces, it should not be laying a number this big. The Braves started the season slow and have not made any sort of move in the National League as they are still seven games under .500 following a series loss against Philadelphia and they only faced one of the Phillies top three starters. Sure, they are better at home but this is a price the old Braves put down, not this version and with Didier Fuentes taking the hill. This is his third start after two awful outings to open his Major League career as he has a 10.80 ERA and 1.80 WHIP covering 8.1 innings. This is his home debut and that adds even more pressure after those first starts. The Angels lost their series with the Nationals and are coming off a 5-4 homestand to sit one game under .500 in what has been a surprisingly good season. They are also just one game under .500 on the road any Tyler Anderson looks to get going as a rough stretch. His road numbers are not good but this is a Braves offense that cannot score consistently. 10* (923) Los Angeles Angels

This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Arizona is coming off getting swept at home against Miami to fall one game under .500 overall and at home. The Diamondbacks offense continues to shine as they are No. 6 in batting averaging while sitting No. 3 in on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. Ryne Nelson has been on a roll as his four-seamer is taking control as this was the case last year, when he had a 3.05 ERA in his final 14 appearances, and since he rejoined the rotation this season, he has a 2.62 ERA over his past seven appearances. He is back home where he has a 2.25 ERA compared to a 5.34 ERA on the road. The Giants are coming off a series loss at the White Sox after also getting swept at home against Miami. Logan Webb is having a career year as far as ERA as he has a 2.52 ERA in 17 starts to go along with a 1.14 WHIP. He is overpriced on the road where his ERA in 3.75 over eight starts while his home ERA sits at 1.52 in nine outings and the Giants have gone just 4-4 on those eight road games. 10* (956) Arizona Diamondbacks

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This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Athletics have lost their first two series on this roadtrip against division leaders the Tigers and Yankees and catch a bit of a break although Tampa Bay has been a pleasant surprise. The offense is top 12 in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS and while six games under .500 on the road, they are catching a great number and have been better on the highway than in their minor league park at home. Jacob Lopez pitched seven scoreless innings in his last start against the Tigers on Wednesday and he is now 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last four starts including three straight quality outings. Tampa Bay dropped two of three against Baltimore after sweeping the Royals in Kansas City and the Rays remain in second place in the American League East, a game and a half behind the Yankees. Drew Rasmussen is not on the same roll as Lopez but is still having a solid season with a 2.45 ERA and 0.96 WHIP but is pitching to a 3.50 xERA and 3.54 xFIP so we should expect to see some negative regression. 10* (959) Athletics

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This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. We won with the Royals on Saturday as they faced Shohei Ohtani but knowing he would go no more than two innings and now they are catching another good number. They have struggled, having lost seven of eight to fall six games under .500. Bring in Michael Wacha who has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball over the last four years with his 3.29 ERA which is No. 7 among 34 starters that have tossed at least 500 innings. While his ERA on the road is a run higher than it is at home, it is still pretty solid at 3.98 while his 1.23 WHIP is right in line with his 1.21 WHIP at home. Seattle has lost three of five since a three-game winning streak and they are three games over .500 which puts them in the No. 3 Wild Card spot. This is a tough number to lay with George Kirby who is making just his eighth start of the season and he comes in with a 5.40 ERA as he struggled early and has not looked right. He struck out 14 at the Angels but has just 22 strikeouts in his other 6 outings. 10* (963) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. 10* (901) Philadelphia Phillies

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This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. 10* (911) Athletics

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This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. 10* (928) Chicago White Sox

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates

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This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. 10* (955) Miami Marlins

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This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. 10* (972) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds

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This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. 10* (928) Kansas City Royals

This a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. Colorado is 8-31 at home following another loss last night, this one an 8-1 setback against the Dodgers, but this is a spot to back the Rockies. This is their 13th home series and they have gone 7-5 in the previous 12 series finales which makes complete sense because teams beat them up in the first two or three games and get lethargic while typically resting players. Of their home wins, seven have been in this situation and we are getting more value because they are the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw is on the hill. He has been really good after allowing five runs in his opening start on May 17th. This is his first trip to Coord Field since 2023 and while this is a different Rockies team than what he had faced but he was much better in the earlier years and still has a 4.71 ERA in 13 starts at Coors Field and enters here in a tough overinflated spot. Austin Gomber got rolled by Arizona in his last start and while the Dodgers have the best offense in baseball, the value is here in the series finale. 10* (954) Colorado Rockies

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This a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. The Phillies have dropped the first two games of this series, both by not scoring a single run, and ruining two great performances from two of their top three starting pitchers. The third goes today and we are expecting the bats to get something behind Cristopher Sanchez. He allowed four runs against the Dodgers in his second start of the season and has allowed three runs or less in all 13 starts since then including two runs or less 11 times. The Astros have won three straight and six of their last eight games to increase their lead to 5.5 games in the American League West. Hunter Brown has quietly been the ace of the staff with his 1.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP through 15 starts. His numbers are even better at home which is the main cog for this number and the situation is very similar to when we played against Houston on Tuesday which ended up a 1-0 game. Additionally, the Astros have won his last six starts, two of which went extra innings and another three decided by just one run. 10* (967) Philadelphia Phillies

This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. The Athletics dropped the series opener on Tuesday 11-4 to make it three straight losses as the downward spiral continues. This is a buy low team right now in certain spots and this is one of those with Jacob Lopez taking the hill. He started the season in the bullpen and after three appearances, got promoted to the rotation where he struggled in two of three starts before another bullpen appearance. By default, he got back into the rotation and has been a new pitcher with a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts while striking out 23. The Tigers opened June with a pair of wins but have gone just 10-9 since then yet still have a 9.5-game lead in the American League Central so there is no urgency so we can sell high. Jack Flaherty has come full circle starting last season here before a World Series ring and is back again but not pitching very good. He has a 4.83 ERA through 15 starts which is nearly two runs higher than his ERA in Detroit last season in 18 starts and while he is better here than on the road, the Tigers are 3-5 in five home outings. 10* (917) Athletics

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This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Tampa Bay came through with the series opening win last night and the Rays are now just one game out of first place in the American League East. It has been a surprisingly good season thus far and they send their ace Drew Rasmussen to the hill. He has a 2.61 ERA through 15 starts and he has really flourished with a home heavy schedule as he has a 2.16 ERA in 11 home outings. This is just his fifth road start and while his ERA of 3.86 in his four road games is still good, it is far from being dominant like he has been at home. The Royals have dropped three straight games and going back prior to last night, they have lost seven straight home games to fall to 19-20 at Kauffman Field. Bring in Michael Wacha who has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball over the last four years with his 3.29 ERA which is No. 7 among 34 starters that have tossed at least 500 innings. He is similar to Rasmussen being better at home as he has a 2.58 ERA here, a run and a half better than on the road. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals