This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is another instance where we are fading a bad defense and an overvalued public team. The Packers snuck into the playoffs last season but were one and done after losing their final four regular season games and now they start the season with a lack of a running game with the absence of Josh Jacobs. Defensively they will be without Micah Parsons for at least four games and that will be felt as they face a new quarterback for the Vikings in Kyler Murray and what better way for a career resurrection than to be taught by Kevin O’Connell, just go back a couple years and look no further than Sam Darnold. The Vikings have the better defense and the goal is to get pressure on Jordan Love without needing to blitz and they should accomplish that. This number did a flip but there is still value as in this type of divisional game, the number should be three. 10* (478) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Chicago had one of its best seasons in recent memory as they won 11 games and took the NFC North for the first time since 2018. The Bears were very fortunate as they led the league in turnover differential at +22 with Houston second at +17 so it was a significant part of their success. Additionally, seven of those 11 wins were by one possession and by an average of 3.1 ppg while also winning a playoff game by four points as well. Also, seven wins came when trailing under two minutes. We expect regression especially with a defense that is not good and already dealing with injuries. The last time we saw Carolina, it nearly pulled off a stunner against the Rams in the playoffs and the Panthers open the season as home underdogs, a role they have succeeded in as they are 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2024 season. Another great value play. 10* (466) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. We have seen this line move a point since opening and it is now over the key number of three. We are high on Cincinnati this season as we bet its team total over 10.5 with the main reasons being that they will be facing the easiest schedule along with going up against the easiest projected offenses in total. This is not one of those situations as Tampa Bay is one of the few quality opponents even though it finished on a 2-7 run last season and the contrarian aspect of that includes the Buccaneers finishing last season going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games. The Bengals fell short as well because Joe Burrow again missed a ton of time and they had one of the worst defenses which they tried to fix this offseason. However this is a wait and see so we will grab the value and this number easily could go up more close to game time as it will not be going down. 10* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Late Night Powerhouse. Sacramento St. is one of two new teams to enter the FBS and it has been an encouraging start as it is 1-1 with the loss being a close one at Eastern Michigan followed up by a blowout win over Mississippi Valley St. The issue with the latter is that the Delta Devils are notoriously the worst team in the country year after year so it meant nothing except for posting its first ever FBS win. The Hornets have been a top team in the FCS for years but they basically lost everyone and got a new head coach in Alonzo Carter and the worst part, they were granted a move to the FBS after the portal so they got slim pickings. Fresno St. opened with a 39-0 loss at USC as the offense mustered only 116 total yards while the defense allowed 552 yards. This is an overreaction but it was against one of the best teams in the country and the Bulldogs are going to be Pac 12 contenders and this is the bounce back spot. Here, we play against road teams after allowing 4.5 or less passing ypa last game, with four or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (406) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. North Dakota St. has looked impressive in its first two games in the FBS as it has outscored its two opponents 71-7 but it played Jacksonville St., which was gutted by the portal and graduation and then destroyed Fordham so the competition was weak. And both of those were at home as it now hits the road for the first time, and as a favorite no less in its first ever Mountain West game and Air Force is not going to overlook the Bison in any form especially with this being a conference game. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent last week as it shut out Duquesne 34-0 so they were not tested but this team is ready to contend in the Mountain West Conference once again after two straight disappointing seasons. The defense was excellent last season and brings back eight starters while the rushing offense has enough back to continue to succeed at running the ball. Here, we play on teams good rushing team from last season that averaged 4.75 or more rushing ypc, in weeks 0-3, with 8 defensive starters returning. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) since 2022. 10* (402) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is coming off an 8-5 season which was its first season since 2019 with a winning record and now it heads to the Sun Belt Conference expected to contend right away. The Bulldogs hung 80 points on Northwestern St. last week and while that is no competition to what they will see this week, getting that confidence in the first game is huge. Will they pull off the upset here? No but they can stay within this large number that is inflated from the LSU performance from last week. The Tigers absolutely destroyed Clemson as head coach Lane Kiffin let no distractions get in their way. That was the marquee game last weekend so it presents fading the letdown and while we cannot take anything away from them in that impressive performance, we are not going to see it again as the Tigers have a massive game at Ole Miss next week so they will not be showing much more. Here, we play on teams after allowing 2.75 or less yppl in their previous game, with five or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (393) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. One of the more misleading finals from last week came from the Utah St./Idaho St. game as the Aggies 29-17 despite outgaining them 407-241 but losing the turnover battle 4-0 did them in. This is another situation where we can point to the overreaction and we are seeing it with this line as the Aggies are nearly four touchdown underdogs with a lot of that coming from last week. Utah St. is playing in the Pac 12 and could contend with an experienced team. Washington is coming off a lethargic effort in the Apple Cup against Washington St. as it won 24-10 despite winning the turnovers at +3. The Huskies are considered playoff contenders behind quarterback Desmond Williams but this is definitely a letdown spot coming off the big rivalry game where typically it has been the last game of the season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points who outgained their opponents by 1.5 or more yppl last season, in weeks 0-3, after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 38-14 (73.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (337) Utah St. Aggies

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This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. With the exception of Syracuse winning 66-3 over New Hampshire last week, this is a solid spot for the Orange. It was an FCS opponent and with most every FCS team getting blown out in Week One, there is no overreaction to that win and the line is definitely saying that. Syracuse is expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC as it is coming off a 3-9 season but this could be a team that dominates on offense similar to how it did in 2024 when it was 10-3 behind Kyle McCord as Steve Angeli is back after getting injured last season and missed most of the season. California got blown out by UCLA and now heads to the east coast for its conference opener. The offense did some good things but certainly not enough ad the biggest concern for California off that loss is the rushing defense as it allowed 277 yards on 32 carries (8.7 ypc). Here, we play on home teams in the first two weeks of the season off a home win by 28 points or more after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (344) Syracuse Orange

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This is a play on the RICE OWLS as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. Notre Dame blew out Wisconsin last week 41-13 but outgained the Badgers by only 66 total yards but won the turnover battle 2-0 which included a pick six. Notre Dame did hold Wisconsin to 67 yards rushing on 31 carries (2.2 ypc) but its own offense had just 111 yards on 32 carries (3.5 ypc) and while it will take a step down in class here, laying a big number in this matchup is not ideal. They are going to get a game where Rice is going to want to slow it to a snail pace by killing clock on the ground. Trying to cover more than six touchdowns makes that difficult as it would need everything to break their way. The Owls were expected to be a much improved team last season under first years head coach Scott Abbel but his implementation of the triple option never took because of lack of the right personnel but that could change this season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg last season, in weeks 0-3, with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. This situation is 84-46 ATS (64.6 percent) since 2017. 10* (359) Rice Owls

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Saturday Early Dominator. Last week was filled with blowouts and while that will temper down as the season progresses, we see another one here. We took Alabama last week with the thought that it needed a statement win and even though it was just East Carolina, the Tide needed to come out strong. They did and we feel the same for Virginia Tech and while it won 73-3 last week against VMI, the Hokies will be out to do it again, this time against an FBS team and one that it lost to by 19 points last season. New head coach will be coaching with a chip on his shoulder after getting axed last season and he has already brought in a new culture. VMI is no good but Virginia Tech looked the part from years ago and he will not be letting up. Old Dominion also rolled last week against Norfolk St. but it was only by 21 points and the Monarchs only won the yards by 99 total. Here, we play on teams after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing 3.75 yards or less yppl, with 8 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Saturday Marquee Star Attraction. Week Two is always overreaction week in College Football and this is where we can find some of the best spots and take advantage of overreaction lines. In this case, we are not really seeing an overreaction line but a line that has not moved despite what happened last week and the fact 95 percent of the money is on Oklahoma. Michigan should be 0-1 but despite the win, the Wolverines were very unimpressive throughout the entire game which quarterback Bryce Underwood at the top of that list. Now he faces a legit defense that came into the season with the No. 3 Defensive Line and No. 4 Linebackers and is coming off a shutout over UTEP while allowing just 198 yards. This is the spot to take Michigan as already no one is one them and they will not be come gametime either as the Sooners will be heavily bet at the short number. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, who lost their last two games last season and had a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Missouri and Kansas are coming off season opening blowout wins and they meet for the 122nd edition of The Border War. Starting in 2007, it was held at Arrowhead Stadium and the rivalry then fizzled away in 2012 until last year when Missouri won 42-31 and now they are in Lawrence playing each other for the first time since 2005. As for the Kansas offense, it welcomed back offense coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left for Penn St. for two seasons and his return should ignite the unit and we saw that in Game One albeit against an FCS opponent. The Missouri defense will be challenged on the road as the Tigers brought back only two starters from last season. The Jayhawks have been pegged as a six-win team this season and we expect them to get it done at home in their FBS opener after closing last season with three losses and ultimately missing out on a bowl game. Here, we play against nonconference Power 4 road teams that had a winning percentage between .600 and .800 last season playing a team that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in weeks 0-3. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (316) Kansas Jayhawks