This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The Chiefs are back as we all witnessed what they did against Denver. No they are not. Patrick Mahomes orchestrated the offense similar to the Chiefs of the past few seasons. No he didn’t. Kenneth Walker was the big bright spot for the Chiefs and he is going to play a big part this season but part of the opener as a whole was that Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. The Colts are no top defense but it will be better than that. Indianapolis had no chance against Baltimore and that puts them in a favorable spot as teams coming off an ATS loss by seven or more points in the opener and are a dog Week Two are 39-15-1 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2014. Additionally, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 21-5 ATS (80.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (277) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Broncos could not have looked worse last week. As mentioned in one other game analysis, Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. This is fixable, especially when it is only Week Two and heading home, this problem will be shored up. Bouncing back from that loss is most important but there is revenge at hand as Jacksonville came in here last season and rolled to a 34-20 win but Denver won the yards 445-346. Jacksonville looked in mid-season form in its win against Cleveland but the Browns are already candidates for the worst team in the league. Now they go to altitude in Wee Two (last year it was in December) and here, we play against road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 27-14 (65.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (270) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. There were many disappointments last week with the Chargers ranking in the top three of that category with Los Angeles counterpart the Rams and Broncos being there and this is a great bounce back spot. It was not a fluke loss for the Chargers, they never looked like they should have won that game and while that might sound concerning going forward, great teams respond and we think they fit that category. The new Mike McDaniel offense was expected to show something but as he called it, it was disjointed and uncomfortable but we see a huge turnaround here. The Raiders opened with a win but was not overly impressive, outgaining Miami by just 31 yards. Kirk Cousins was 21-30 but averaged 5.3 ypa which is pretty awful and was No. 29 of 32 quarterbacks that had 10 or more snaps. Here, we play against team off a home win by 10 points or more, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10*(268) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore was pegged as a favorite in the AFC to win the conference and it played the part in Week One and now the Ravens come in overpriced as the injury bug has already hit. Zay Flowers has been ruled out and two offensive line starters are doubtful yet Baltimore is favored north of a touchdown. Adding to the Baltimore drama, the NFL continues to ruin the NFL as the Ravens have a game in Brazil against the Cowboys next week to add to their distractions. New Orleans fell behind 21-0 last week in Detroit and nearly pulled off the win and it does not get easier here. We love the resiliency of this team and are in a spot to make more noise. We know Lamar Jackson is 25-3 against the NFC but that record dips to .500 ATS and being shorthanded is not ideal. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that finished last season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in weeks 1-3. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Early Attraction. The first inkling here is to take Houston after its tough loss to the Bills and fading the Bengals off their win over Tampa Bay. The big issue here is that this line has not moved despite the status of Joe Burrow who is now considered questionable with back tightness but there is a very unlikely chance that he will not play as this is the typical cat and mouse play. The Texans opener against the Bills was a chance to open with a big win but the defense could not stand up and the public is expecting a bounce back as 76 percent of the money is on Houston yet, no line move. The Texans are down to a skeleton crew at wide receiver with Nico Collins being ruled out and now Xavier Hutchinson is the top guy. No interest in that. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (261) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The first overreaction comes in a matchup between Green Bay and New York and on opposite ends. The Packers held a 22-10 lead in the third quarter against the Vikings before the bottom fell out with 29 unanswered points from Minnesota and now the season is already over for Green Bay. Admittedly, their offensive line is a liability and faces a tough front from the Jets but one that is unlikely to blitz 83 percent of the snaps which the Vikings did. New York played a very efficient game but that was against Tennessee with a new staff, new systems and apparently not a new culture. We were high on Tennessee coming in to the season and still could be sans the one game but the Jets are not as good as that opener looked. The Packers rebound. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by four or more last season, in weeks 1-3, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Houston is 2-0 while averaging 55 ppg, and the market has moved from Texas Tech around -13.5 at open to -7.5. They already have a common opponent as both have played Oregon St. Houston outgained Oregon St. 533-376, while Texas Tech allowed 417 passing yards to the Beavers and were outgained 472-352 overall. The Cougars came in a sleeper to win the Big 12 Conference following 10 wins last season and while we do not typically play the road revenge angle, Houston has the roster and motivation to get that payback or at least keep this one within reach. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points good passing team from last season with a completion pct of 58% or better, in weeks 0-3, after allowing 8 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (109) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Buffalo pulled off the come-from-behind win over Houston on the road and now the Bills head home for their first ever game in the new Highmark Stadium but we are not playing them because of that as a new stadium isn’t really a motivator. Buffalo is simply the better team and has a huge home field advantage no matter what stadium they are in. The defense could be considered a concern as they allowed 31 points and 381 total yards but Houston ran 70 plays and only averaged 5.4 yppl while the Buffalo offense averaged 8.2 yppl with a +2.8 yppl differential. Conversely, Detroit was outgained 469-369 against New Orleans but snuck out the overtime win. The Lions were outgained 5.8 to 5.1 yppl so it was not a great performance at home and now they have to hit the road on a short week after an overtime game so they are in a very tough position. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after scoring 35 points or more last game. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 2022 with an average scoring differential of +10.8 ppg. 10* (104) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Prime Attraction. The White Sox have fallen out of first place in the American League Central for the first time in 75 days as they have lost seven of nine and are 5-12 in their last 17 games. Erick Fedde comes in as the favorite as he has been solid of late with a 1.50 ERA over the last month that includes two starts and 24 overall innings combined. He has a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts while pitching to a 4.51 xERA. The Tigers started to make a move up in the Wild Card standings but have fallen back. Framber Valdez never panned out this season as he has a 4.01 ERA in 29 starts but he has been pitching solid of late as well as he has a 2.93 ERA over the last month across five starts. On the road he is pitching to a 3.84 xERA which is better than what he has at home. 10* (963) Detroit Tigers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Syracuse let us down last weekend as it lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. This line is inflated because of the final score and not what exactly transpired in the game itself. Pittsburgh rolled over Miami Ohio in its opener but struggled against Central Florida last week as it only won 12-7. The box score shows it should have been a bigger victory so it can be argued the win was a little flawed but the Panthers do not deserve to be such a big favorite in their conference opener. Here, we play on road teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 15-9 (62.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (105) Syracuse Orange