Handicapper Profile

Matt Fargo

Matt has WON a RIDICULOUS +$41,456 in the NFL since the start of 2012 after a 9-4 run since Week Two! Monday Night Winner will only add to the profits! 143-99 (+$30,165) streak in MLB since 5/25! N.L. GOM tonight!

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Past Picks

Show the last picks

Date	W/L	Type	Handicapper Selection
9/23/2018	WINNER	NFL	Fargo's NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog ($40,656 NFL) This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Along with the Bills and Giants, the Cardinals are being grouped into the worst teams in the league but as mentioned in other analysis, early season overreactions tend to inflate lines and we feel that is the case here as well. The Cardinals offense has mustered just 350 total yards in 2 games. For comparison, their defense has allowed 429 and 432 yards respectively. The Bears defense is ranked No. 8 in the NFL and on paper it should dominate a Cardinals offense that cannot get out of its own way. However, things do not always come out like they should on paper in this league and for a team that has not had a winning season since 2012, laying close to a touchdown on the road is extremely aggressive. Arizona still has weapons on offense and we cannot forget new systems are being put into place that can take a few weeks to come together. The Cardinals are hoping it is this weekend to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2005. A lot of this game comes down to the Bears offense which is still looking pretty vanilla under a new system as well. Even though Mitch Trubisky started 12 games last year, his development was stunted playing under John Fox and Dowell Loggains last season. It is going to take a while for head coach Matt Nagy get Trubisky going as he has been up and down this season, excelling in the early scripted drives and sputtering under the gun. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win and Arizona falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. *9 (484) Arizona Cardinals**
9/23/2018	LOSER	NFL	Fargo's NFL Sunday Afternoon Dominator ($40,656) This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Afternoon Dominator. The Rams are the talk of the NFL along with Kansas City as Los Angeles has looked incredible over its last six quarters. Since going into halftime down 13-10 against the Raiders, the Rams have outscored their opponents 57-0 over the last 90 minutes. The fact they are ranked in the top seven in both total offense and total defense should come as no surprise and it is these types of short-term performances that the public eats up which affects the placement of the line and we are seeing that here. Turnovers and special team killed the Chargers in their opener against the Chiefs as despite a 10-point loss, they outgained Kansas City by 179 total yards and followed that up by dominating Buffalo early and then taking the foot off the gas. While the Rams are ranked No. 7 and No. 3 in total offense and total defense respectively, the Chargers are ranked No. 3 and No. 9 in those categories respectively and based on roughly the same strength of schedule, they should not be a touchdown underdog. The Rams defense will be the toughest that the Chargers have seen early in the year, but the Chargers have a lot of weapons to spread the ball around to. They have a good offensive line so Rivers is not going to be under complete duress all game. The Rams do allow an above average yards after catch and the Chargers have some of the best receivers in the NFL when it comes to making tacklers miss and need to capitalize on that area of the offense. The Chargers have been one of the better road teams over the last few years as they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. Additionally, they have covered six straight games as non-conference underdogs of more than two points. *9 (481) Los Angeles Chargers**
9/23/2018	WINNER	MLB	Fargo's 10* MLB Sunday Sweet Spot (142-99 MLB Run) This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Even though the Royals possess the second worst record in baseball, arguably the wrong team is favored here. Kansas City has dropped two of three to open this series and are on a 1-6 run, but it has a distinct edge on the hill this afternoon and can take advantage of a slumping Detroit offense. The Tigers are not playing much better as they are 4-9 over their last 13 games and have lost four straight games following a win. Additionally, the Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Brad Keller gets the ball for the Royals and he is coming off an average start against the Pirates but that was the first time in seven starts he allowed more than two earned runs. Overall, he has a 3.17 ERA in 19 starts and the Royals are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris and he has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six starts. He was able to put together his longest outing of the season last time out but it reached just 5.1 innings and to add to the disadvantage, Detroit is averaging only 3.0 rpg in his starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. *10 (971) Kansas City Royals**
9/23/2018	WINNER	NFL	Fargo's NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator ($40,656) This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. As dominant as the Ravens looked in their first game, it came against Buffalo so take it for what it is worth and playing on a short week on the road, they fell behind 21-0 against Cincinnati and were unable to recover. Baltimore now has extra time to recover from that defeat as it will be out to get back into the win column and this has been a good spot in the past as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a Thursday loss. A priority for the Ravens is getting their running game going as they are averaging 3.3 ypc, which is the third-worst in the NFL. They are facing a Denver defense that is ranked No. 7 in rushing defense but the Broncos went against below level talent at running back and faced two of the worst offensive lines in football. Stopping Von Miller is a task for every team but Baltimore should do a good job. One of the most underrated offensive linemen in the league, Ronnie Stanley is a staple and maybe even a franchise level left tackle for the Ravens as he is stout in the run game and has improved every year in pass protection. Denver is a surprising 2-0 but it has faced two teams on the decline and both of those were at home where the Broncos have a big edge early in the season because of the altitude. But they struggled to put away the Raiders at home and now they are making a long trip to a difficult road venue. Going back, the Broncos are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. *9 (470) Baltimore Ravens**
9/23/2018	LOSER	NFL	Fargo's 10* NFL Sunday Enforcer (PERFECT 5-0 Run) This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Taking nothing away from what the Chiefs have done to start the season but the overreactions are hitting hard and that brings value to the other side. More than 70 percent of bets are on Kansas City, which enters Week Three as the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. Quarterback Pat Mahomes looks like he could be the real thing and everybody is loving this team right now with their impressive wins the Chargers and Steelers. But there is more to it than that and not in a good way. Kansas City has been outgained in each of the first two games due to a defense that is ranked dead last and it is not even close as it is allowing 508 ypg. While it is only two games, to put that into perspective, Tampa Bay had the worst defense last season at 378.1 ypg. The 49ers were able to pick up their first win of the season last week at home against Detroit. They did have a chance to beat Minnesota as they lost by eight points no thanks to four turnovers, one that took place in the redzone and another that was returned for a touchdown. Kansas City is one of three teams to open the season with two straight road games, Houston and Seattle being the other two, and while the public thinks that this is a huge edge for the home team, that is hardly the case. Play against home teams in Week Three after opening the season with two straight road games. This situation is 26-9-2 ATS (74.3 percent) since 2003. Making this play even stronger is the fact the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS and San Francisco is 0-2 ATS and going the opposite way in this ATS matchup in Week Three has resulted in a 68 percent winning result. *10 (479) San Francisco 49ers**
9/23/2018	WINNER	NFL	Fargo's 10* NFL Game of the Month (EPIC +$40,656) This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Month. We played against Carolina last week as it lost in Atlanta but we will be backing the Panthers as they head back home in a favorable contrarian matchup. Their first home game resulted in an eight-point win over the Cowboys as the defense dominated for three and a half quarters. Carolina had a streak of 21 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher snapped against the Falcons when Tevin Coleman ran for 107 yards, but the Panthers catch a break this week as Joe Mixon is out with a knee injury so Cincinnati has to turn to Giovani Bernard who has only three 100-yard rushing games in his career. Offensively for Carolina, the key will be not be Cam Newton but Christian McCaffrey. His strength goes against a Cincinnati weakness as while he is a talented rusher, what sets him apart is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in space and the Bengals linebackers are not good in pass coverage. Cincinnati has been among the early-season surprises in the NFL, winning their first two games by identical 34-23 scores. The Bengals are ranked third in scoring but just No. 18 in total offense so that offense may not be as good as one may think. They have benefitted from a defensive touchdown and despite the 2-0 record, they have been outgained in both games. The defense is tied for No. 27 in total defense so of the seven 2-0 teams, this could be the biggest fraud. Carolina is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games over seven years after allowing 6.5 or more yppl in their previous game while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. *10 (464) Carolina Panthers**
9/22/2018	LOSER	Canadian Football	Fargo's 10* CFL Game of the Month (24-7-1 77% YTD) This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Game of the Month. Hamilton hung with Calgary for over half of the game last week but after taking a 25-20 lead on a fumble return for a touchdown, the Tiger-Cats were outscored 23-3 to close the game. That snapped a three-game winning streak as well as a six-game streak where they outgained their opponent. They are now a game behind Ottawa in the East Division but with the playoff crossover, they are in fifth place overall and just a half-game up on Winnipeg for sixth place. B.C. has won two straight games for the first time this season but this is not a good spot to keep it going. Lions quarterback Travis Lulay got hurt two weeks against Ottawa and he tried to go last week but left the game after just two pass attempts. Jonathon Jennings will get the start and he has been as average as average can be. He opened the season as the starter when Lulay was on the shelf and he did not produce a single 200-yard passing game in three starts as he averaged 162.3 ypg with the Lions going 1-2. Making matters more difficult, he will face a Hamilton defense that leads the CFL in passing defense, allowing just 219.3 ypg. On the other side, Jeramiah Masoli is 214 yards away from his first 4,000 yard passing season in the CFL and three touchdowns short of tying his career-best of 21 in 2016. Additionally, with one more 300-plus yard game, Masoli can set a Tiger-Cats record of 10 such games. The B.C. defense has shored things up over its last three games but that is skewed based on last week when it held the hapless Alouettes to just 95 yards passing. B.C. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after outgaining opponent by 70 or more total yards in their previous game while the Tiger-Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. *10 (657) Hamilton Tiger-Cats**
9/22/2018	WINNER	MLB	Fargo's 10* MLB Saturday Sweet Spot (141-99 MLB) This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. As the season winds down, lines are adjusted based on teams that are still vying for playoff spots and we are seeing that here with the Brewers. We won with Milwaukee last night as road favorite but the pitching matchup was in it favor even though the game eventually came down to the bullpen because of a lengthy rain delay. Tonight, the Brewers have no such advantage yet they come in as a favorite as they trail the Cubs by a game and a half in the National League Central and while this is not a must win game, it is being treated like that. The Pirates had their five-game winning streak snapped last night as the bullpen allowed six runs in the sixth inning and seven runs total on four home runs. They hope to get a longer outing from the starter tonight and Trevor Williams will be up to the task. After a rough first half of the season, he has been outstanding of late, posting a 1.10 ERA in his last 11 starts since early July. He has one below average outing in St. Louis and he has allowed no earned runs in seven of the other 10 starts. Zach Davies counter for the Brewers and he is making just his fourth start since May. He has been okay as he has not allowed more than two runs in the three starts but he has lasted only five innings each time. That is not ideal after the bullpen had to go five innings last night. The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. *10 (904) Pittsburgh Pirates**
9/22/2018	WINNER	College Football	Fargo's CFB Ultimate Underdog (INSANE +$13,136) This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. LSU is coming off a monumental win last week at Auburn as it came back from a 21-10 deficit and defeated the Tigers on a last second field goal as 10-point underdogs. Obviously they have to avoid the letdown and that will be tough to do. It can be argued they avoided a letdown after the win over Miami as they defeated Southeastern Louisiana 31-0 but it was misleading as they outgained the Lions by just 81 yards. The offense sputtered its way to the victory with 335 yards of total offense and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 10 minutes. Big time programs get up playing other big time programs and a lot of times tend to play down to the opposition but the Tiger better not sleep on the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is 2-0 and expected to win the C-USA East division. Everyone talks about the Louisiana Tech high-octane passing game, but no one should overlook the running game. The Bulldogs average 208.5 ypg on the ground and have run the ball 81 times out of their 152 total plays. That being said, the passing game cannot be overlooked as quarterback J'Mar Smith has completed 65 percent of his passes and averaged 294 ypg through the air with four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are very balanced and that is key against a strong defense that it can keep off-balanced. Louisiana Tech has played two poor teams but it is virtually the same offense from last year with eight starters back. Here, we play on road underdogs in a game involving two teams outrushing opponents by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last five seasons. *9 (383) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs**
9/22/2018	LOSER	College Football	Fargo's 10* CFB Game of the Week (+$13,136 L5+Y) This is a play on the UL-MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Game of the Week. We were on the Warhawks last week as a four-touchdown underdog and it was a competitive game as they were down by just 14 points with six minutes left in the third quarter but the Aggies went on to score 24 points over the final 18 minutes of the game. UL-Monroe returns home for its conference opener after playing the last two games on the road which included an upset of Southern Mississippi. The Warhawks are capable of a big bounceback and the Trojans have a history of letdowns after big wins. Case in point last season when they defeated LSU on the road only to get bounce the following week at home against South Alabama as 19-point favorites. Troy is coming off a huge win last week at Nebraska but it was a game it never should have won, or one that Nebraska never should have lost. The difference was a fake fair catch on a punt that led to a touchdown as the Trojans were outgained by 111 total yards and lost the first down battle 22-12. Troy is expected to contend in the SBC East just like the Warhawks are expected to contend in the SBC West so the home team should have a significant edge, especially in a night game. UL-Monroe falls into a great situation where we play on teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, returning eight or more offensive starters including quarterback going up against an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. This situation is 62-29 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last five seasons. *10 (398) UL-Monroe Warhawks**