This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Washington is our first ugly dog on Sunday as the public is not surprisingly all over the Seahawks. The Commanders are 0-2 and are now without quarterback Jayden Daniels who once again dislocated his elbow and they will again rely on Marcus Mariota who was forced into service against Dallas and was actually really good. He now faces a much better defense but has had a week of preparation and he is not going to asked to do everything. Seattle is 2-0 with a win over New England after Sam Darnold went down and then a trouncing of Arizona last week. This line has gone up five points since opening at 2.5 and we aren’t sure if Daniels is worth that but 79 percent of the tickets and 75 percent of the money thinks so. Going to a quarterback with little to no experience is one thing but backing a veteran is a non-issue. Sam Darnold is likely to return so wait on this line as it will go up even more. Here, we play on home teams in conference games, off 2 straight division games. This situation is 37-15 (71.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (462) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. The Steelers are coming off another poor offensive effort, this time against the Patriots and they come in as another ugly dog that no one will be on. Pittsburgh still has a stifling defense that plays even better at home and the stop unit allowed only 13 points to the Patriots offense after allowing 13 points to the Falcons. We are banking on that defense like it has stepped up in the past and the Steelers have relished this spot as they are 12-2-2 ATS as a home underdog in division games dating back to 2000. The Bengals are 2-0 thanks to the Buccaneers giving it away with four turnovers and they are outgained by 107 yards to the Texans. What is more telling where the sharp money is however as 80 percent of the handle and 93 percent of the money is on the Bengals yet the line has not moved since last Sunday night. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (464) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic is coming off an ugly 16-10 win over Florida International in the Shula Bowl and that result helps us here as this number could be even higher. The Owls got absolutely rolled by Florida in their season opener but came back with an upset over Navy before the win last week where we can call a fortunate one. The Owls were outgained by 99 total yards but used a 3-0 turnover advantage and stopped the Panthers three times on fourth down in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. Normally we would be weary of that false final but Florida Atlantic has a massive edge as quarterback Caden Veltkamp and the potent passing attack will have their way against one of the worst passing defenses in the country in the Warhawks, which come in 0-3 including losses to UAB and FCS SE Louisiana. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after 2 straight losses by six or less points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (395) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. This is a game of opposite travel situations and should help Utah St. get into the win column for the first time this season. The Aggies return home after back-to-back road games against Washington and Utah where they managed 14 and 0 points respectively. The big cause for concern was the season opener where they lost 29-17 against FCS Idaho St. but Utah St. lost the turnover battle 4-0 so that was a fluke. We did win with the Aggies against Washington as they lost by only two points as a four-touchdown underdog and that letdown led to a poor effort last week against Utah. Conversely, Troy is coming off a road game, a 27-17 loss to Missouri and have to go back-to-back on the road, this one in high altitude. The Trojans two wins were against Sam Houston St. by three points where they were outgained and Alabama St. of the FCS. Here, we play against road teams averaging 6.4-7.5 ypa going up against teams allowing 5.6-6.4 ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 27-4 (87.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (410) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Main Attraction. One of the marquee games comes from the old Pac 12 as Oregon looks to regroup against a quality team. The Ducks narrowly defeated Boise St. at home and then lost at Oklahoma St. and while they defeated Portland St. 84-0 last week, we can’t take much out of that as it was a glorified practice. What it did do was give the players a confidence boost on the simple things and that can go a long way as we have seen these lopsided victories do future wonders. Oregon has a chance to keep that offensive momentum going as USC comes in having started off poorly on defense. The Trojans are No. 110 in Adjusted EPA/Play and are coming off a game at Rutgers, which lost to UMass and Boston College, and allowed 460 yards and four scores and on the season, they have allowed 26, 30 and 35 points in three of four games. Here, we play on teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) since 2022. 10* (399) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. Sometimes big wins can carry momentum and we think that is the case for Cincinnati. The Bearcats came back from a 28-7 deficit against Miami Ohio to win 35-31 and claim The Victory Bell in what was the last one in this oldest non-conference rivalry for at least the near future which is a travesty. Cincinnati is now 3-0 and making this a non-letdown spot is the fact this is the Big 12 Conference opener so the Bearcats will be jazzed for a night home game. Kansas St. came up small for us as it failed to cover against Tulane as they let the Green Wave hang around and they coasted prior to their own conference opener. They have looked excellent thus far and they come in favored which maybe should be the case but not at this number. Here, we play home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (346) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Vanderbilt is coming off one of the most improbable wins so far this season and one of the craziest endings to a game in recent memory. Coming off that last second win to improve to 3-0, the Commodores now hit the road for the first time this season likely still in celebration mode despite this being their conference opener. Vanderbilt was the big story of last season, narrowly missing out on the CFP but it had a lot of turnover coming into this season and the first road game makes it tougher. Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season at home against Florida and it gets to remain home to rebound from that defeat. We are seeing a 12-point swing and the big line is going to lure in the public to back Vanderbilt since everyone saw that ending last week. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) since 2017. 10* (390) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Late Powerhouse. Arizona upset the Chargers in the season opener and the question is, was it because the Cardinals have potential or was it based on the Chargers being bad. We think it is the former despite Arizona getting rolled by Seattle last week but that was a tough spot. Now they play a second straight divisional game at an inflated price and road divisional dogs in the first three months of the season when playing in optimal weather have cashed 56 percent of the time since 2003. The 49ers are and have been a very public team and going back the last three seasons, they are 2-9 ATS after scoring 30 or more points with some of that due to the line in that next game being inflated to counter public money. They have looked great and once again, the linesmakers have to adjust. The Cardinals fall into the same situation as the Chargers as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (481) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Year. Here is another letdown spot and this is one of the biggest letdowns we have encountered in a while. Mississippi is coming off the massive win over LSU and while it wasn’t a big time upset, it was the situation that it took place in which will put the Rebels in a vulnerable spot here. This could be considered a letdown spot for Florida which had a big win at Auburn but the difference we like here is that the Gators do the reverse travel and head home. Florida put up 495 passing yards against Auburn and that is where they should once again be able to find success as Mississippi sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed. With running back Kewan Lacy considered questionable with an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators. Here, we play against road teams after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 28-11 (71.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (342) Florida Gators

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We are starting to find some situations to play on or against with coming off big wins and losses and Kentucky is coming off the former. The Wildcats defeated Texas A&M on the road by 10 points to improve to 2-1 but it was a backwards victory as they were outgained by the Aggies which ran a whopping 30 more plays but could not get anything going. The win was huge which came after that Alabama second half debacle and now this presents a massive out of conference letdown and the fact they have South Carolina on deck. South Alabama is 2-1 with nothing overly exciting to get amped about but the Jaguars have outgained all three opponents as the only loss was to Tulane by four points despite outgaining the Green Wave 54 points. Here, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (333) South Alabama Jaguars