This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Canes/Aggies Dominator. The home field edge here is going to be a big one even though it is being downplayed because of the early start. The running game will be important and the Aggies have a significant edge when looking past the top line numbers. The strength for Miami is the rushing defense as it is No. 7 in yards allowed and No. 10 in ypc but the metrics tell a different story as the Hurricanes are tied for No. 73 in EPA/Rushing. They go up against an Aggies offense that is No. 26 in EPA/Rushing. Texas A&M has rushed for over 200 yards in seven games and South Carolina was the only team to hold Texas A&M under 100 yards rushing with the reason being the Aggies had to abandon the run after falling behind 30-3 at halftime. On the other side, the Hurricanes are No. 100 in EPA/Rushing on offense so if there is talk being thrown around that Miami has the overall rushing advantage, it does not. A lot of the success for Miami came by way of not losing the turnover battle which it did only three times and had 20 takeaways. Texas A&M turned the ball over only eight times in its first nine games but coughed it up eight times in its final three games and we will call the latter an aberration so taking care of the ball will be the big edge. 10* (298) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the ST. MARY’S GAELS for our CBB Supreme Annihilator. St. Mary’s was destroying everyone in its path early in the season and got to No. 24 at KenPom before facing an excellent Vanderbilt team in the Bahamas where it lost by 25 points and then suffered its second loss of the season two games later against Boise St. in Idaho Falls. That loss against the Broncos was the Gaels last game so they are ready to get right again and the spot could not be better as this is their first home game since November 22 as the last five games have all been outside of Morgana. Making the spot better is that Florida Atlantic is having to make the trek out west after a pair of home games and then have to head back to Florida to face rival Central Florida in Orlando. The Owls are 8-3 including a 1-1 record on the road, losing at Liberty by 20 points and beating No. 174 rated Florida Gulf Coast by five points. 10* (886) St. Mary’s Gaels

This is a play on the UC IRVINE ANTEATERS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. Belmont opened the season 8-0 then suffered a home loss against Richmond but has responded with three straight wins. This includes a pair of wins at home against Illinois-Chicago and on the road at Evansville to make it a 2-0 start in the Missouri Valley Conference and now comes an odd travel spot where the Bruins have to head out west before Christmas and before resuming conference action. The start is good but the schedule rank of No. 320 has helped. UC Irvine was the runner-up in the NIT last season and started off a 3-4 but has found its footing with four straight wins. The Anteaters are 5-2 at home as they lost to Cal Baptist in their first division I game of the season and lost to Northern Iowa in overtime by one point and this one sets up nearly identical, facing the MVC against a similar rated team but in a better spot. 10* (876) UC Irvine Anteaters

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFP Tide/Sooners Enforcer. Obviously the big story in this one is whether or not Alabama actually belongs here with its three losses and the season culminating with a bad loss against Georgia in the SEC Championship. It is time to prove they belong and what better way to do it playing with double revenge, losing to the Sooners 23-21 this season and having their eight-game winning streak snapped no thanks to a -3 turnover margin and falling 24-3 last season in the second to last game of the season that essentially knocked them out of the CFP. The defenses will be the focal point and while Oklahoma is No. 2 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17 so the quarterbacks will likely determine this outcome and Alabama has the big edge. Ty Simpson completed a season-low 48.7 percent of his passes in his last game against No. 3 Georgia but he dominated the Sooners with 326 yards passing in the first meeting. On the other side, John Mateer has been up-and-down with 12 passing touchdowns and 10 picks. He suffered an injury on his throwing hand that required surgery and now he is in for a test against the SEC’s top pass defense and he struggled in the first meeting with only 138 passing yards. 10* (295) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We lost this matchup on Wednesday and are coming back with the Cavaliers again. Cleveland is 3-7 over its last 10 games after moving to a season-best six games above .500 with a 12-6 record and now back home in revenge mode. The Cavaliers were coming off their worst loss of the season, falling to 8-18 Charlotte in overtime by eight points as a 12.5-point favorite followed by the loss against the Bulls and now they have failed to cover four straight and they are now 8-20 ATS on the season after being one of the best last season. Chicago started the season 5-0 and 6-1 and has turned into one of the worst teams in the league since early November as they are 5-14 over its last 19 games and the Bulls are back on the road where they are 4-9. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points going up against an opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (544) Cleveland Cavaliers

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS for our CBB False Favorite. Tulsa has been an early surprise as it is off to a 10-1 start and has gone from a preseason rating of No. 139 to No. 73 but it has been helped by a favorable schedule. Two wins have come against non-Division I teams while three wins came against teams rated No. 293, No. 277 and No. 347 with the five decent wins either coming at home or on a neutral floor. The Golden Hurricane are 1-1 on the road with the loss against a suspect Kansas St. team and the wins against No. 293 Oral Roberts by one point. Western Kentucky is off to a 7-3 start and remains home prior to a 10-day break before C-USA action starts. The Hilltoppers are 5-0 at home with the three losses outside of Bowling Green as they lost at Marshall and two games in the Bahamas, one against top 10 Vanderbilt by five points and the other against South Florida in overtime. 10* (872) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE PANTHERS for our CBB Early Cash Winner. Milwaukee was 4-0 at home before a two-point loss to Indiana St. and the home team was 9-0 in all nine of their games this season prior to that with those five road losses coming against Wofford, Indiana, Texas Tech, Wichita St. and Akron which are a combined 26-2 at home. Overall, they have played a schedule ranked No. 83 and while this is not a true home game, it is a game in Milwaukee at happy hour on a Friday and the Panthers are in bounce back mode. South Dakota St. is coming off a semi-home game in Sioux Falls in a loss to Wyoming and the Jackrabbits are now 7-6 with every win being rather unimpressive. Three victories were against non-Division I teams with the other four coming against teams rated between No. 273 and No. 344 and Milwaukee rates out better while the Panthers are in autoplay mode on a 0-4 ATS run. 10* (864) Milwaukee Panthers

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our Gasparilla Bowl Smash. While we do not have a false favorite here, we have an overpriced favorite and Memphis has the matchup edges we are looking for. The Tigers did lose their final three games and are without their coach so those two factors are the reason the number is so big but as long as they can execute, this is right there to win outright. The rushing game will be a deciding factor and Memphis has the advantage. The Tigers are outrushing opponents by 1.3 ypc (5.1-3.8) while NC State is outrushing opponents by only 0.3 ypc (4.7-4.4) and the EPA number variances are big. Memphis is No. 2 in EPA/Rushing and going up against the No. 89 ranked EPA/Rushing defense of NC State while the Wolfpack are No. 41 in EPA Rushing on offense but the Tigers counter with the No. 40 ranked EPA/Rushing in defense. We cannot trust any part of the Wolfpack defense which is No. 126 in overall EPA and they really struggled against bowl teams and were outgained 6.8 to 6.5 yppl. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (207) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our Xbox Bowl Annihilator. This line has been all over the place early on as Arkansas St. was the favorite out of the gate and then it did a complete flip but has gone back to the Red Wolves laying a short number after it was announced Missouri St. head coach Ryan Beard was leaving for Coastal Carolina and will not be on the sidelines for this bowl game. This is another team that backed into a bowl game because of not enough eligible teams but the coaching aspect is a big deal. Missouri St. does possess a solid passing attack as it is No. 38 in EPA/Passing but against a weak schedule and bringing this down is the fact the Bears were sacked 44 times, the third most in the country. The aforementioned weak schedule is No. 123 in the nation and Missouri St. went just 2-4 against bowl teams while getting outgained 6.9 to 6.1 yppl. The coaching situation for Arkansas St. is much more stable with veteran Butch Jones on the sidelines and the Red Wolves do bring in some momentum. They started the season 1-4 without a FBS victory but closed 5-2 down the stretch to become bowl eligible and they won their last game to do it, a one point win over Appalachian St. They come in with the stronger defense and should blow up the Bears offensive line. 10* (302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Some might consider this is a false favorite but Seattle is getting some extra love for home field and we have actually seen a reverse line move as this opened Sunday night with the Rams a 1.5-point favorite and then flipped not much later and continued to go back and forth all the way through Wednesday morning before now finally settling in and this is with 74 percent of the money on the Rams according to DK. The Seahawks have won four straight games and were taken to the final seconds last week against Philip Rivers and the Colts and that result may be making the public a little gun-shy in backing Seattle this week. The defense at home will be the difference here as the Seahawks are No. 2 in EPA/Passing and No. 1 in EPA/Rushing. The Rams have won eight of their last nine games and are currently the No. 1 rated team in the league as well as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +320. They won the first meeting by two points and never trailed despite getting outgained by 165 yards but were +3 in turnovers. Here, we play against road teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in week 16 or later in the season. This situation is 77-23 (77 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +8.6 ppg. 10* (102) Seattle Seahawks