The NBA Conference finals round 3 game 3 play is on San Antonio. Game 552 at 8:30 Eastern. All time in this round game 3 road teams off a home win in game 2 and a home loss in game 1 are just 7-16 straight up. The Thunder have a 3-10 record in a series tied at 1-1 and lost the last 4 in this role. The Spurs have won 7 straight in game 3 when a series is knotted at 1-1. Much has been made of the Spurs turnovers in game 2 so we looked at Playoff home favorites off a road dog loss and spread loss if they had more than 20 turnovers and their opponent had 10 or less and these home teams were perfect straight up and to the spread. The Spurs will likely make some adjustments here and will likely get a OKC team that will likely be without Williams. The Thunder role players which were major contributors may also likely find it tougher to produce on the road. Look for an overall better performance from the Spurs here.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LW @ HH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LW with site order HH (Oklahoma City) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2026
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 210-150 (.583)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 46-35 (.568)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 78-53 (.595)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 11-12 (.478)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 168-192 (.467)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 37-44 (.457)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 54-77 (.412)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 7-16 (.304) OKC