#944 BLUE JAYS with Yesavage (-) over Seattle with Gilbert at 5:30 PM EST
Off yesterday's 3-1 home loss to the M's, the Blue Jays will get back into this series with a statement victory on Monday. Toronto has quietly won seven of its last nine games and manager John Schneider and his troops will bounce back nicely here.

On the hill for the home team will be right-hander Trey Yesavage. In his lone postseason start against the Bronx Bombers on October 5th, No. 39 tossed a gem allowing no earned runs and no hits in 5.1 innings of work. Trey whiffed 11, walked one, and picked up the dub in the Jays 13-7 victory. Equally impressive, in the regular season, Yesavage hit the hill three times in the role of a starter and was cracked for five earned runs and 13 hits in 14.0 frames. That's good enough for a 1-0 record with a respectable 3.21 ERA.

Countering for the visitors will be righty Logan Gilbert. In the playoff series against the Tigers, No. 36 saw the mound twice and was clipped for one earned run and seven hits in 8.0 innings of work. Logan struck out nine and walked no batters on his way to a 1-0 record with a 1.13 ERA. However, in six career outings versus the Blue Jays, Gilbert has assembled a 0-2 mark with a soft 5.24 ERA.

There are a handful of trends that support this wager. Toronto has picked up wins in 97 of its last 167 battles overall, 56 of its last 84 when playing in its own backyard, 72 of its last 125 facing a right-handed starter, and 60 of its last 97 when playing at night. On the other side of the field, Seattle has fallen in 20 of its last 31 against teams from the AL East.

If the Blue Jays want to have a shot at the World Series, then they'll need to even this series up before heading to T-Mobile Park on Wednesday. Take Toronto with Yesavage. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#274 KANSAS CITY (-) over Detroit at 8:20 PM EST
Off a frustrating Monday night loss in Duval County to the Jaguars and with their hustle and effort questioned, the Chiefs will put on a show under the Sunday night lights against the visiting Lions. Detroit storms into this non-conference tilt off four straight wins and covers over the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Bears, and they'll have trouble when they step up in class and battle one of the AFC's best.

When coming off a straight up loss, head coach Andy Reid and his troops have responded by inking a lucrative 30-9 SU and 23-16 ATS record in their last 39 games. In this setting tackling a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .625 or higher, the Chiefs improve to an elite 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS. Also, when priced as an underdog or a short favorite of -6.5 or less and lined up against an NFC foe, Kansas City carries an outstanding 38-18 SU and 36-19-1 ATS record including an awesome 27-11 SU and 27-10-1 ATS provided they check in off a non-division game.

It certainly won't be easy going against a Detroit squad that holds a solid 41-12 SU and 39-14 ATS record in its last 53 games. However, as an AFC West guest, the Lions have struggled a touch posting a soft 7-15 SU and ATS mark in their last 22 games. In this setting arriving off a straight up win, head coach Dan Campbell and his boys fall to a woeful 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS. Even worse, as a guest arriving off two or more straight up wins, the Motor City Kitties hold a pitiful 25-46 SU and 26-42-3 ATS tally including a rough 11-36 SU and 16-30-1 ATS if they are priced as an underdog or a short favorite of -2 or less.

At 2-3 SU and looking up at the Broncos and Chargers in the division standings, the Chiefs need this dub and cover badly in order to stay competitive in the AFC West race. Take Kansas City. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#268 LA RAIDERS (-) over Tennessee at 4:05 PM
On an ugly 0-4 SU and ATS run and packing a defense that has allowed a grand total of 126 points in those four blemishes, the Silver and Black will finally get it right when they face the Titans on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee enters this conference game off a shocking road upset win at Arizona and this will be a difficult encore for head coach Brian Callahan and his boys.

There are a couple of power angles that back this investment. First, when coming off three or more pointspread losses, Las Vegas owns a profitable 8-1 ATS record in its last nine games. Second, sine 1980, NFL squads that hold a team won/loss percentage less than .334 hold a respectable 65-42-3 ATS record provided they storm in off a blowout loss of 34 points or more. If our "play on" side is battling a foe that arrives off a non-division game, this angle jets to a highly profitable 38-17-2 ATS including an incredible 28-11 ATS provided they take the field off two or more straight up losses.

It certainly won't take much to fade Tennessee. The Titans hold a horrible 10-36 SU and 12-32-2 ATS record in their last 46 games including a shocking 0-9 SU and ATS provided they slip in with momentum off a straight up win. Also, non-division guests that won straight up priced as an underdog of +7 or more in their last game hold a nasty 30-94 SU and 44-75-5 ATS record provided they are lined up against a foe that storms in off a road war. As long as neither team is rested, this technical situation slips to a horrible 25-85 SU and 36-70-4 ATS including a miserable 9-56 SU and 18-45-2 ATS provided their opponent arrives off a non-division battle.

Don't be fooled by last week's results. The Raiders aren't as bad and the Titans are nowhere near good. Silver and Black skipper Pete Carroll will turn things around quickly in Sin City and the road to respectability starts here. Take Las Vegas. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#259 SEATTLE (+) over Jacksonville at 1 PM EST
Storming in off last week’s 38-35 hard-fought home loss to the Buccaneers, the Seahawks will travel to Duval County and pull off this minor upset over the Jaguars. Jacksonville hits the field off battle off three straight upset wins over Houston, San Francisco, and Kansas City, and this will be an exceedingly difficult encore for head coach Liam Coen and his crew.

When arriving without confidence off a straight up loss as a favorite, Seattle has responded in a big way posting a proud 37-12 SU and 30-16-3 ATS record in its last 49 games including a sound 20-7 SU and 19-6-2 ATS provided its opponent played in the comforts of home last. Equally impressive, the Seahawks have been a road warrior lately notching an outstanding 11-1 SU and 6-4-2 ATS mark in their last 12 games. Finally, after a poor defensive performance in which they allowed 35 points or more, the ‘Hawks have been a solid investment in their next game notching a lucrative 27-11 SU and 23-14-1 ATS tally including a strong 27-8 SU and 23-11-1 ATS provided they slip in without confidence off a straight up loss.

There is a strong NFL system that works against the Jags in this matchup. Since 1980, NFL favorites that slip in off back-to-back straight up underdog wins hold a soft 33-52-2 ATS record provided they pulled their last upset in the comforts of home. If this is a non-division game, our “play against” piece of chalk falls to a rough 18-33-1 ATS including a horrible 8-22 ATS provided they hold a team won/loss percentage of .501 or higher. Also, when matched up against a team from the NFC that scoots in without steam off a straight up loss, Jacksonville owns a shocking 16-35-1 ATS mark in its last 52 tries.

After shocking the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs in their last three battles, the Jags will finally meet their match against this angry Seahawks bunch. Take Seattle. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#263 LA CHARGERS (-) over Miami at 1 PM EST
Far from pleased off back-to-back SU and ATS losses to the Giants and Commanders, head coach Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers will travel to South Beach and rip this struggling Dolphins bunch. Miami enters this AFC showdown with a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS record and, off last Sunday’s embarrassing road loss at Carolina, head coach Mike McDaniel and his troops will get blitzed here once again.

The Bolts apply to one of their best financial roles, too. As a guest arriving without confidence off two or more straight up losses, Los Angeles holds a rewarding 48-24-4 ATS record including an elite 27-8-3 ATS provided they storm in off a non-division game. With those two parameters cranking away and the Chargers priced as a favorite, this technical situation jumps to a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS. In addition, when checking in off a straight up loss as a favorite and now tackling an opponent that holds a team won/loss percentage less than .500, LA holds an outstanding 34-18 ATS tally including an amazing 34-15-3 ATS provided they are not rested. With those two parameters live and Coach Harbaugh’s soldiers taking the field off two or more pointspread losses, this angle explodes to a highly profitable 12-1 SU and 12-0-1 ATS.

Holding a weak 9-16 SU and ATS record in their last 25 games, the Fish haven’t been their profitable self lately. In this run lined up against a non-division opponent, Miami falls to a woeful 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS. There is a strong pro system that works against the Dolphins as well. Since 1980, NFL game six single digit underdogs that hold a 1-4 SU record own a soft 35-80 SU and 46-67-2 ATS mark provided they are not rolling with rest. If our “play against” side is lined up against an opponent that arrives off a non-division game, this early season angle falls to a horrible 16-53 SU and 19-50 ATS. That spells serious trouble for the Dolphins.

Even though this game is on the east coast in the early window for a west coast team, Coach Harbaugh and the Chargers will bounce back from their blemishes and pick up a much-needed win and cover. Take LA Chargers. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#251 DENVER (-) over NY Jets at 9:30 AM EST
After knocking off the defending Super Bowl Champions in the City of Brotherly love, the Broncos will head across the pond and take care of business against this struggling Jets squad. Denver head coach Sean Payton has his team laser focused (the Orange aren’t even going sightseeing in London) and he has stressed the importance of this victory especially with the Chargers and Chiefs all within striking range of the top spot in the AFC West.

One thing Denver has done very well is beat the teams they should. In fact, when priced as a favorite, the Broncos have inked a noteworthy 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS record including a nearly perfect 11-1 SU and ATS provided their opponent is not off a blowout victory of seven points or more. With those two parameters live and the Orange Crush coming off a game in which they did not allow 35 points or more, this situation hits perfection at 11-0 SU and ATS. Additionally, in non-division play tackling an opponent that arrives without momentum off a SU and ATS loss, Denver holds a powerful 29-12 SU and 28-12-1 ATS tally including an elite 17-5 SU and ATS provided Coach Payton and his players take the field off a pointspread win.

Holding a horrible 8-24 SU and 10-22 ATS record in their last 32 games, the Jets haven’t been competitive on the football field lately. In this run priced as an underdog or a short favorite of -1.5 or less, New York falls to a miserable 2-19 SU and 5-16 ATS. Also, on the road or at a neutral site facing a non-division foe, head coach Aaron Glenn and his squad own a rough 23-50 SU and 24-44-5 ATS mark including a salty 6-27 SU and 6-26-1 ATS provided their opponent enters with momentum off a SU and ATS win. With those two parameters cranking away and the Boys from the Big Apple lined up against a foe that owns a team won/loss percentage of .380 or higher, this angle crashes to a nasty 2-27 SU and 3-26 ATS including an eye-popping 1-25 SU and ATS provided their opponent smashed the Las Vegas pointspread by four points or more last. (Make that 0-24 SU and ATS if NY is priced as a favorite or an underdog of +16 or less!)

This is a business trip for the Broncos and they’re simply not going to be satisfied with a win over the Eagles. The Orange Crush have their sights set on a division title and a playoff run and they know they can’t afford an embarrassing loss to the Jets. Take Denver. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#170 BOISE ST (-) over New Mexico at 9:45 PM EST
Arriving off that seven-point loss at San Jose State, things will go from back to worse when New Mexico hits the road and travels to Boise State on Saturday night. The Lobos enter this conference battle off a 21-point beating at Notre Dame Stadium and they'll be anxious to get back on the winning track.

Dating back to the 1999 season, the Broncos have faced the Lobos 14 times and inked a dominant 13-1 SU and 7-6-1 ATS record. Equally impressive, when coming off a straight up loss, Boise State has been worth the financial risk notching a respectable 47-6 SU and 28-17-2 ATS mark. In this situation facing an opponent that was on the road last, head coach Spencer Danielson and his crew improve to a lucrative 22-1 SU and 15-6 ATS. Also, in their last 56 conference battles, Boise State holds a reliable 48-8 SU and 34-20-2 ATS record including an elite 24-4 SU and 20-8 ATS provided they are playing in the comforts of home.

Under the direction of head coach Jason Eck, New Mexico has made some progress. However, in conference play busting in without confidence off a straight up loss, the Lobos hold a woeful 11-31 ATS record provided their opponent arrives off a non-conference tilt. In this setting priced as an underdog, Coach Eck and his kids fall to a pitiful 2-28 SU and 5-25 ATS including a jaw-dropping 0-17 SU and ATS provided they storm in off a conference battle. That spells trouble for the Lobos!

In search of their third conference title in a row, the Broncos will get back to doing what they do best and that's dominate Mountain West Conference foes. Take Boise State. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#182 LSU (-) over South Carolina at 7:45 PM EST
Stinging off that five-point road loss at No. 13 Ole Miss and with a week to sit there and think about that beating, head coach Brian Kelly and the Tigers will do some severe damage when the Gamecocks visit Death Valley on Saturday night. Defensively, LSU is a proud unit that is the strength of their team and you can bet your last buck they haven't forgotten about the 33 points South Carolina hung on them last year in the Bayou Bengals 36-33 victory in Columbia.

Historically speaking, LSU has dominated this series lately, inking a strong 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS record in the last eight meetings. Equally impressive, when coming off a SU and ATS loss, the Tigers have been worth the financial risk posting an elite 64-18 SU and 47-25-3 ATS mark including a sensational 35-13 SU and 32-14-2 ATS if they are lined up against a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .501 or better. With those two parameters live and Coach Kelly and the boys going into revenge, this angle improves to a strong 16-5 SU and 16-3-2 ATS. Finally, when lined up against an opponent that slips in off a blowout victory of 20 points or more, the Bayou Bengals hold a lucrative 31-12 SU and 29-14 ATS tally including a powerful 13-4 SU and 14-3 ATS mark if they bust in off a pointspread loss.

After spanking Kentucky at home by the final score of 35-13 and checking in off a week of rest as well, South Carolina will have its hands full in this matchup. When coming off two or more pointspread wins, the Gamecocks have been a poor investment posting a rough 6-13-2 ATS record in their last 21 games. In this setting tackling a foe that arrives off a straight up loss, head coach Shane Beamer and his boys fall to a dismal 1-5-2 ATS. Additionally, when priced as a favorite or an underdog of +12 or less and lined up against an opponent that holds a team won/loss percentage of .800 or higher, South Carolina owns a woeful 5-25 SU and 9-22 ATS record provided its foe takes the field off a pointspread loss. In this situation facing a conference foe, the Gamecocks fall to a nasty 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS.

The Tigers are ranked sixth in the nation packing a scoring defense that allows an average of 12.2 points per game and they'll keep Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers and receiver Vandrevius Jacobs in check all night long. Take LSU. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.

#210 MINNESOTA (-) over Purdue by 22 at 7:30 PM EST
Checking in off that 42-3 beating in Columbus against the No.1-ranked Buckeyes, the Golden Gophers will bounce back in a big way when they return to the Twin Cities and tackle the struggling Boilermakers. Purdue just lost three straight to a trio of powerhouses in USC, Notre Dame, and Illinois, and head coach Barry Odom and his boys will be out of gas for this Big 10 road battle.

Revenge motivation will have Minnesota focused on the task at hand. Even though these two schools didn’t cross paths last season, the Golden Gophers have fallen in the last two meetings in this series losing on the road in 2023 (49-30) and in their own backyard in 2022 (20-10). Even with those blemishes, head coach P.J. Fleck and his men still own a proud 8-3 SU (6-5 ATS) mark in the last 11 matchups. Also, when lined up against an opponent that stumbles in off two or more straight up losses, Minnesota owns a spectacular 39-15 SU and 37-16-1 ATS record in its last 54 games including a rewarding 33-10 SU and 31-11-1 ATS provided its opponent is not rested. With those two parameters live and the Gophers off a pointspread loss, this angle jets to a solid 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS.

Holding a stiff 7-24 SU and 8-21 ATS record, it’s tough to even consider siding with the Boilers right now. If PU is priced as an underdog, this team trend falls to a stiff 1-21 SU and 5-17 ATS including an ugly 1-18 SU and 3-16 ATS provided its opponent is not rolling with rest. Even worse, in their last 11 road games, the Boilermakers have lost their steam, inking a poor 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS record. Please note: Those 11 blemishes came by an average of 24.3 points per game. Finally, when tackling an opponent that enters off a straight up loss, Coach Odom and his players hold a woeful 8-18 ATS mark in their last 26 tries including a terrible 5-15 ATS provided they are priced as an underdog or a favorite of -11 or less.

The Gophers are undefeated at home this season and are averaging 40.0 points per game in the process. After getting only three points at Ohio State last Saturday, Coach Fleck and his troops will light up the scoreboard against the Boilermakers soft defense. Take Minnesota. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.